Diplomacy's Dark Side: Rss And The Art Of War

The When Diplomacy Fails podcast delves into the intricate world of international relations, exploring the moments when diplomacy falters and the subsequent impact on global affairs. Through its episodes, the podcast shines a light on the behind-the-scenes negotiations, strategies, and power dynamics that shape the course of history. From the complex interactions between Ambassadors and the nuances of their communications to the high-stakes decisions made by world leaders, this podcast offers a unique perspective on the human stories behind wars and international crises. With a focus on the buildup to World War I, the July Crisis, and the intricate dynamics of Anglo-American relations, When Diplomacy Fails provides a fascinating exploration of the interplay between diplomacy and conflict.

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Anglo-American diplomacy from 1838-1846

Anglo-American diplomacy from 1838 to 1846 was a period marked by fractious diplomacy, war scares, major tensions, close calls, and settlements that significantly impacted the relationship between the two nations. This era witnessed significant events, such as the Second Sumatran expedition in 1838, which served as retaliation for the massacre of an American merchant ship's crew.

In 1842, the Webster-Ashburton Treaty settled the US-Canada border dispute, ending the Aroostook War and addressing the Caroline affair, an incident that fuelled American hostility towards Britain. The Treaty of Bird's Fort was signed in 1843 between Texas and local tribes, and in 1844, the Oregon Question brought America and Britain to the brink of conflict, with America adopting the slogan "54-40 or fight."

The year 1845 witnessed the annexation of the Republic of Texas, prompting Mexico to sever diplomatic relations. The Slidell Mission during the same year failed to prevent the outbreak of war with Mexico. The Oregon crisis, a boundary dispute, was eventually resolved in 1846 through a compromise that divided the region, with British Columbia going to Great Britain and Washington, Idaho, and Oregon becoming part of the US.

The period from 1838 to 1846 was a pivotal phase in Anglo-American relations, characterised by rising tensions, territorial disputes, and ultimately, diplomatic resolutions that shaped the future of both nations.

War scares and gunboat diplomacy

Gunboat diplomacy refers to the "use or threat of limited naval force" to achieve diplomatic objectives. It is a form of coercive diplomacy carried out in peacetime or in less than war situations, intended to secure a specific advantage from another state. The term originates from the nineteenth-century period of imperialism when Western powers would intimidate less powerful entities into granting concessions by demonstrating their superior military capabilities, usually through naval assets.

The concept of gunboat diplomacy has been defined and categorised by diplomat and naval thinker James Cable in a series of works published between 1971 and 1993. Cable breaks down the concept into four key areas: Definitive Force, Purposeful Force, Catalytic Force, and Expressive Force. Definitive Force refers to using gunboat diplomacy to create or remove a fait accompli. Purposeful Force involves applying naval force to change the policy or character of the target government or group. Catalytic Force is a mechanism designed to buy time or present policymakers with an increased range of options. Finally, Expressive Force involves using navies to send a political message.

Gunboat diplomacy has been employed by various countries throughout history, including the United States, Great Britain, Germany, and Venezuela. For example, in 1899, the United States practised gunboat diplomacy in Venezuelan waters when the USS Wilmington sailed up the Orinoco River, demonstrating the ship's Colt machine guns to back up its diplomatic demands. Similarly, in 1853, American Commodore Matthew Perry led a squadron of US Navy warships to Tokyo Bay, intending to use force if Japan refused to negotiate, which laid the groundwork for a trade agreement between the two nations.

Gunboat diplomacy is not limited to historical contexts; it remains relevant in the post-Cold War world, with the US Navy's overwhelming sea power. The Clinton administration, for instance, used sea-launched Tomahawk missiles and E-3 AWACS airborne surveillance aircraft in the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s, demonstrating a passive display of military presence. More recently, Russia has employed naval blockade tactics in the Black Sea during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, threatening and attacking ships sailing to and from Ukrainian ports.

While gunboat diplomacy can be an alternative to war, it is important to note that its escalation into a state of war indicates a failure of diplomacy. The success of gunboat diplomacy relies on it being accompanied by political diplomacy and a credible threat of force.

The failure of diplomacy in World War I

The failure of diplomacy to prevent World War I has been attributed to a multitude of factors, including the complex international situation, the shortcomings of the diplomats themselves, and the changing nature of global politics.

Firstly, the early 20th-century European context was fraught with historical tensions and shifting alliances. Each country carried the weight of past glories and defeats, influencing their decisions to go to war. For example, France had not forgotten its loss in 1871, while Germany celebrated that victory. Additionally, the rise of nationalism and the desire to rectify past injustices fuelled a mobilisation of public opinion that diplomats struggled to control.

The diplomats themselves, despite their sophistication and access to power, could not overcome the challenges presented by this complex backdrop. Their reporting was often disregarded in favour of military advice, and they faced competition from intelligence services, whose reports, though questionable, held more intrigue due to their clandestine nature. The Ambassadors in key European cities, such as Alexander Izvolsky in Paris and the Cambons in London and Berlin, worked tirelessly, but ultimately, their efforts were futile.

Furthermore, the very nature of diplomacy was changing. The careful balancing of interests that characterised the 19th century had given way to competition between military blocs. Military-to-military interactions within alliances sometimes occurred without civilian oversight, leading to policy disconnects that went unnoticed until war broke out. The militarisation of foreign policy, with its focus on victory and strength, further diminished the role of diplomats.

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The causes and consequences of wars

The causes of wars are multifaceted and complex, often stemming from a combination of political, economic, social, and ideological factors. In the "When Diplomacy Fails" podcast, various historical conflicts are analysed to understand how wars break out, how they unfold, and their consequences.

For example, the podcast examines the Franco-Dutch War (1672-1678/9), which provides insight into the intricate diplomacy, leaders, and issues at stake during that period. The conflict between Britain and America from 1838 to 1846 is another example, showcasing gunboat diplomacy, war scares, and the complex dynamics between nations.

The July Crisis, which preceded World War I, is also analysed. This episode delves into the intricate diplomatic manoeuvres and misunderstandings that occurred in the final hours of peace, such as the vague intentions expressed by the British Foreign Secretary and the role of the German ambassador, Lichnowsky. The podcast also scrutinises the behaviour of Ambassadors during this tumultuous period, highlighting the delay in announcements by Buchanan and Paleologue, who were on the ground in St. Petersburg, and the vested interest of the Russian government in maintaining confusion.

The consequences of wars are far-reaching and can include loss of life, destruction of infrastructure, displacement of populations, and economic turmoil. Wars can also have long-lasting impacts on the social, political, and cultural fabric of the societies involved, shaping international relations and the course of history.

By understanding the causes and consequences of wars, we can strive to prevent future conflicts through effective diplomacy, negotiation, and the peaceful resolution of disputes. Examining historical wars provides valuable lessons and insights that can inform decision-making and help build a more peaceful world.

The challenges faced by statecraft

Statecraft, the art of conducting international relations, often faces several challenges and complexities. One of the primary challenges is managing diplomatic relations, especially when diplomacy fails. When diplomatic efforts break down, states may resort to alternative means to achieve their objectives, including the use of coercion, economic constraints, or even military action. However, these alternatives present their own set of challenges and risks.

One significant challenge is the intricate web of alliances and rivalries between nations. As evident in the Franco-Dutch War (1672-1678/9), international relations are often complex, with shifting alliances and competing interests. Nations may find themselves in competition for resources, influence, or territorial gains, leading to tensions and conflicts. In such scenarios, the absence of a strong diplomatic resolution can prolong disputes and escalate minor issues into significant conflicts.

Another challenge arises from the behaviour and actions of individual diplomats or ambassadors. As seen in the July Crisis, the actions of ambassadors can have far-reaching consequences. Delayed announcements, vague statements, or misunderstandings between ambassadors and host governments can shape the course of events. The challenge lies in ensuring that diplomats effectively represent their nation's interests and values while navigating the complexities of international relations.

Additionally, the challenge of maintaining a coherent foreign policy arises when diplomacy fails. Nations must carefully consider their responses to evolving situations while staying true to their strategic goals and principles. This challenge is further exacerbated when dealing with multiple fronts, as France did during its conflict with Sweden, which required managing relations with various entities along the Rhine, in the Netherlands, and in Catalonia.

Moreover, the challenge of resource allocation in statecraft cannot be understated. As the Habsburgs faced in the Thirty Years' War, financial constraints and military resource depletion can hinder a nation's ability to pursue new campaigns or support soldiers. The challenge is to find the necessary resources to achieve diplomatic and military objectives, especially when faced with powerful adversaries or when attempting to reclaim lost territories.

In conclusion, statecraft encounters several challenges when diplomacy fails. These include managing complex alliances, holding individual diplomats accountable, maintaining coherent foreign policies, and securing the necessary resources. Overcoming these challenges is essential for nations to effectively navigate the intricate world of international relations and pursue their strategic objectives.

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