Omar Bennett
The podcast 'When Diplomacy Fails' explores the breakdown of international relations and the descent into war. It delves into the intricacies of diplomatic failures, examining the complex interactions between nations and their leaders. From the July Crisis and the role of the German ambassador to the intricacies of Russian mobilisation and the confusion it caused, the podcast provides a detailed analysis of the events preceding wars. It also scrutinises the behaviour of Ambassadors Buchanan and Paleologue, questioning their delayed announcements. The podcast further discusses the challenges faced by the Biden administration in dealing with Putin's invasion of Ukraine and the limits of diplomacy in such situations.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Topic | When Diplomacy Fails |
| Format | Podcast |
| Host | Dr Zack Twamley |
| Content | Examines how wars broke out, how they were concluded, and their consequences |
| Current Series | The July Crisis Patreon Series: The Age of Bismarck |
| Episode Topics | - Britain's offer to remain neutral and guarantee the neutrality of France |
| - German efforts to court Romania and the Ottoman Empire | |
| - Russian mobilisation and its impact on diplomacy | |
| - The role of Ambassadors Buchanan, Paleologue, and Pourtales | |
| - The use of delaying tactics and the threat of force in diplomacy |
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What You'll Learn
World War I diplomacy failures
The failure of diplomacy in the years leading up to World War I has been the subject of much historical analysis and debate. The war, which lasted from 1914 to 1918, resulted in devastating losses and significant political transformations in Europe. In the years preceding the war, Europe enjoyed a century of peace, yet the complex interplay of international relations and the actions of key decision-makers ultimately led to the outbreak of global conflict.
One notable aspect of the diplomatic failures preceding World War I was the presence of capable and experienced diplomats. European diplomacy in the late 19th and early 20th centuries was led by individuals with intimate access to powerful rulers and key decision-makers. These diplomats were ardent in their desire to maintain peace and possessed a deep understanding of the cultures and histories of the countries they served. However, despite their efforts, they were unable to prevent the escalation of tensions and the eventual outbreak of war.
A complex web of international relations and competing interests also contributed to the failure of diplomacy. The major "Allies" grouping included Great Britain and its empire, France, Russia (until 1917), Italy (from 1915), and the United States (from 1917). In opposition, the Central Powers consisted of Germany, Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire (Turkey), and Bulgaria. Secret treaties, such as the Treaty of London and the Treaty of Bucharest, played a significant role in shaping alliances and exacerbating tensions. These treaties, which remained secret until the Bolsheviks came to power in Russia in 1917, revealed promises of territorial concessions and alliances, fueling suspicions and undermining trust among nations.
Additionally, the competition for influence and the pursuit of national aspirations hindered diplomatic efforts. King Nicky of Russia, Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany, and King George V of the United Kingdom shared a genuine affection for each other, yet they were unable to overcome their obsessions with maintaining power and portraying themselves as authentic representatives of their nations. This dynamic, coupled with the historical baggage carried by each European power, created significant obstacles for diplomats striving to maintain peace.
In conclusion, the failure of diplomacy before World War I resulted from a complex interplay of factors, including the limitations of diplomats, the complexities of international relations, secret treaties, and the competing interests of powerful nations. Despite their efforts, the diplomats were ultimately unable to prevent the catastrophic global conflict that ensued.
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US-USSR relations
In 1933, President Franklin Roosevelt officially recognised the USSR and established formal diplomatic relations, hoping to increase trade and boost the US economy. Roosevelt named William Bullitt as ambassador to the USSR, but Bullitt's view of the Soviet leadership soon soured due to their totalitarian nature and terror. By the end of his tenure in 1936, he was openly hostile to the Soviet government.
US-Soviet relations continued to be marked by suspicion and tension. In the late 1930s, the Soviet Union pursued a policy of neutrality and friendly relations with Germany, even supplying them with oil and munitions during their invasion of Western Europe. This caused concern in the US, and relations between the two countries reached a low point in August 1939 when the Soviets signed the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact with Nazi Germany.
It was not until Germany invaded the Soviet Union in June 1941 that the two countries found common cause again, with the US providing aid and war materials to the Soviets through the Lend-Lease program. Despite this cooperation, the two countries continued to clash over issues such as the division of Korea and the repression of anti-occupation resistance in Poland.
In the 1970s, US-Soviet relations were characterised by détente, with President Richard Nixon and his advisor Henry Kissinger seeking to improve ties and gain access to China. However, this period also saw tensions over issues such as the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Soviet grain harvest of 1972, which led to higher food prices in the US.
In the 1980s, relations between the two countries deteriorated further, with the election of President Ronald Reagan, who ran on an anti-détente platform. Reagan imposed economic sanctions on the USSR, including a grain embargo, and tensions rose over issues such as the end of the SALT II negotiations and NATO exercises in 1983.
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The July Crisis
Austria-Hungary sought to use the assassination as a pretext to inflict a military blow on Serbia, viewing Serbian support for Yugoslav nationalism as a threat to the unity of its multi-national empire. On 6 July, Germany offered unconditional support to Austria-Hungary in what became known as "the blank cheque". Encouraged by this support, Austria-Hungary issued an ultimatum to Serbia on 23 July, demanding harsh terms that were likely to be rejected. Serbia, however, consented to almost all of the demands, except for a few minor clauses. Austria-Hungary seized upon these dissenting points as a pretext for a formal declaration of war on 28 July 1914.
The possibility of determined Russian support for Serbia was not properly considered during this crisis. Russia was bound by agreement to protect Serbia in the event of an attack. On 21 July, the Russian Foreign Minister warned Germany that Russia would not tolerate Austria-Hungary's threatening language towards Serbia or any military action. Despite this warning, Germany continued to court Romania and the Ottoman Empire, preparing for the possibility of a wider conflict.
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Russian mobilisation
The German ambassador, Pourtales, witnessed the behaviour of Ambassadors Buchanan and Paleologue in St Petersburg, which deserved scrutiny due to their delayed announcements. The British and French governments were unable to act without official confirmation, and the Russians took advantage of this delay to maintain a sense of confusion. Sazonov, the Russian adversary, counted on the Central Powers to react in a way that would obscure who had initiated the conflict.
Berlin, in particular, viewed Russian mobilisation as the end of peaceful diplomacy. The Tsar had burned his bridges in Berlin, and the Germans scoffed at his decision to mobilise while simultaneously requesting their mediation. They believed that Austria could not make any concessions, and that Britain failed to recognise that the conflict was not about aggression or conquest, but rather an immediate threat to German security.
As the pressure built in Britain, the interventionist camp gained strength, but the Cabinet remained divided. Britain was reluctant to enter a war over a distant Austro-Serbian conflict, but they also could not abandon their ally, France, which had committed to respecting Belgian neutrality, unlike Germany.
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Biden-Ukraine-Russia relations
The Biden administration's approach to the Ukraine-Russia conflict has been characterized by a combination of diplomacy, sanctions, and military support for Ukraine. In the lead-up to the conflict, the Biden administration employed various tactics, including high-level direct engagement between Biden and Putin, face-to-face negotiations, written exchanges, incentives, and multilateral talks through the UN, to avoid armed conflict. Despite these efforts, Putin ordered Russian troops to cross the Ukrainian border, marking a failure of diplomacy and the start of the war.
Following the invasion, the Biden administration continued to pursue diplomacy while also providing military aid to Ukraine. This included increasing the amount of arms and training provided to Ukraine, such as tanks, missiles, and artillery platforms, and there was even talk of providing fighter aircraft. The US and Ukraine also engaged in joint military planning, with American and Ukrainian officers planning Kyiv's counteroffenses side by side. The US provided intelligence and precise targeting information to Ukrainian soldiers, playing a crucial role in Ukraine's military operations.
However, the Biden administration has faced criticism for its handling of the conflict. Some argue that the US should have been more involved militarily from the start to deter the Russian invasion. Others accuse the administration of lying about the extent of its involvement and expanding the conflict by pushing NATO to Russia's borders. There are also debates about the administration's objectives, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his allies insisting that the US should do more to help Ukraine defeat Russia and grant it a clear path to NATO membership.
Biden, on the other hand, set three objectives for the US response: supporting Ukraine, maintaining unity among US allies, and avoiding direct conflict between Russia and NATO. He emphasized Ukraine's survival as a sovereign, democratic country, free to pursue integration with the West, rather than focusing on territorial recovery.
The Ukraine-Russia conflict has also impacted Biden's broader agenda and legacy. It has shifted the focus away from other issues and raised questions about the effectiveness of his diplomatic approach. Despite the challenges, Biden has maintained a balanced approach, utilizing diplomacy, sanctions, and military support for Ukraine.
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Frequently asked questions
'When Diplomacy Fails' is a podcast that examines the outbreak of wars, how they were concluded, and the consequences. It is hosted by Dr Zack Twamley, a qualified history expert.
One example is the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Despite the Biden administration's efforts to avoid armed conflict, diplomacy failed to deter Russian President Vladimir Putin, who saw advantages in a full-scale invasion. Another example is the July Crisis, where the German government believed Britain intended to remain neutral in the conflict and guarantee the neutrality of France.
When diplomacy fails, it can lead to war. However, diplomacy doesn't end once a war has started; instead, it often escalates with a focus on containing the conflict, minimizing civilian harm, and achieving a ceasefire. Facing the limitations of diplomacy doesn't mean embracing war; it can involve learning to live with the consequences of aggression and regrouping to develop more assertive strategies.
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