Malcolm Rivera
Yemen has been plagued by internal conflict for decades, with southern discontent and economic, social, and sectarian inequality driving civil war and cross-border conflicts. The country has witnessed over twenty years of internal strife, including coups and assassinations, with a brief period of unity from 1990 to 1994. Despite numerous attempts at diplomacy, including United Nations-brokered truces and international mediation, the country remains embroiled in violence. The latest escalation involves cross-border rocket fire by the Ansar Allah militia (the Houthis) and retaliatory aerial bombardments, endangering the fragile city of Sanaa and the civilian population. The Houthis have consolidated power and demonstrated skepticism toward diplomatic processes, while the Biden administration's diplomacy first strategy has faced challenges. The complex dynamics, including the involvement of regional powers and shifting alliances, suggest that diplomacy may fail again unless effective strategies are employed to address the underlying issues and balance the interests of all stakeholders.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| The truce between the Houthis and the Yemeni government | The truce was extended twice but collapsed in early October when the two sides failed to agree on conditions for another extension |
| The role of the UN | Failed to present a new peace package |
| The role of the US | Has been implicated as a partisan in Yemen since the conflict began in 2014 |
| The role of the Houthis | Want an unconditional end to the Saudi-led coalition's military intervention and the withdrawal of its forces from Yemen; have taken advantage of the conflict to develop income streams through smuggling and other illicit activities |
| The role of Saudi Arabia | Has failed to weaken the Houthis militarily and to compel them to negotiate in good faith; unlikely to engage directly with the Houthis in the future to avoid a cross-border military response |
| The role of Iran | Does not have a command-and-control relationship with the Houthis but shares their expansionist agenda |
| The role of the PLC | Has failed to improve public services and ameliorate the humanitarian crisis, disillusioning thousands of Yemenis |
| The role of the international community | Has been reluctant to address regional grievances, to the detriment of sustainable peace negotiations |
| The role of Yemeni ruling elites | Have failed to address the demands of the people, leading to protests against a deal that many considered deeply flawed |
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What You'll Learn
The Houthis' religious ideology and political ambitions
The Houthi movement is a complex mix of religious, Yemeni nationalist, and big-tent populist tenets, imitating Hezbollah. The Houthis' ideology is rooted in Islamic fundamentalism and is aligned with Iran's "Axis of Resistance". They aim to expel the US from the Middle East, destroy Israel, and institute a worldwide Islamic Caliphate with Jerusalem at its core. The Houthis' political ambitions are deeply rooted in Zaydism, a school of thought within Shi'a Islam, which believes that the spiritual leader of Muslims should be a descendant of the Prophet Muhammad.
The Houthis' religious ideology is based on the teachings of Hussein al-Houthi, which were collected after his death in a book titled "Malazim" (Fascicles). This work is treated by the Houthis as more important than older Zaydi theological traditions, resulting in disputes with established Zaydi religious leaders. Hussein al-Houthi was influenced by various religious traditions and political ideologies, including Khomeinism and revolutionary Sunni Islamist movements such as the Muslim Brotherhood. The Houthis' founder, Hussein al-Houthi, is viewed as the "Talking Qur'an", and their current leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, is seen as the head of the "Qur'anic March", reflecting their sacred stature and absolute obedience expected from followers.
The Houthis have a complex relationship with Yemen's Sunnis, discriminating against them but also allying and recruiting them. They are strongly inspired by Wilayat al-Faqih, or "the Guardianship of the Jurist", a system of governance where political and religious authority lies with a supreme clerical leader. The Houthis' political ideology has shifted from heavily religious mobilisation to more assertive and statesmanlike rhetoric under their current leader. They have portrayed themselves as national resistance, defending Yemen from outside aggression and influences, and as champions against corruption, chaos, and extremism.
The Houthis aim to govern all of Yemen and support external movements against the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. They have a strong base of support from the predominantly Zaydi northern tribes and have become a major nationalist force. The Houthis' ability to defeat their rivals during the Yemeni civil war confirmed their belief in divine support for their cause.
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The UN's failed peace talks and cease-fire agreements
In 2018, the UN engaged in Stockholm to negotiate a series of two-month cease-fire agreements, which included positive steps such as forestalling a coalition assault on Hodeidah and allowing fuel shipments through the Houthi-controlled port. However, the Houthis' refusal to implement certain obligations, like reopening roads around Taiz, raised concerns about their intentions. The Houthis have a history of thwarting diplomatic efforts, and their public stance has been an unconditional end to the Saudi-led coalition's military intervention and the withdrawal of its forces from Yemen. This hardline position has been enabled by the failure of Saudi military intervention to weaken them.
The UN's special envoy for Yemen, Martin Griffiths, has attempted to engage Iran to influence the Houthis, but to no avail. The Houthis have even refused to meet with envoys, signalling their disinterest in a negotiated settlement. This is despite the fact that the UN, along with the US, has been actively trying to de-escalate violence and push for peace.
The UN's failure to achieve a lasting peace is also due to the complex dynamics within Yemen. The country's ruling elite, from resource-poor areas in the north, have marginalised politically powerful regions in the south, leading to long-standing grievances. The UN's peace talks have not adequately addressed these regional divisions, and the Houthis have exploited the conflict for financial gain.
Additionally, the UN's focus on confidence-building measures and modest goals may not be sufficient to bring about a sustainable resolution. A broader approach that addresses the root causes of the conflict, including regional grievances and the role of key players like Iran, is necessary.
In conclusion, the UN's peace talks and cease-fire agreements have failed to bring about a lasting resolution to the conflict in Yemen due to the Houthis' intransigence, complex internal dynamics, and the need for a more comprehensive approach that addresses the root causes of the conflict.
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The US's partisan involvement and failed mediation attempts
The United States has been implicated as a partisan in Yemen since the conflict began in 2014. The US has engaged with Houthi rockets directly and dispatched the destroyer USS Cole to help defend against Houthi rockets targeting the United Arab Emirates. This involvement has been concurrent with the diplomatic efforts of the UN and US special envoys to de-escalate the violence and end the war.
The US has been involved in political negotiations over Yemen's future since the 2011 uprising. However, the US-backed GCC-brokered deal in 2011 was seen by many as a deeply flawed deal that failed to address the demands of the people, focusing primarily on resolving the conflict between traditional political elites from the northern part of the country, while keeping corrupt leaders in power. This deal granted former president Ali Abdullah Saleh immunity, allowing him to remain in Yemen, which was a significant point of contention for many Yemenis.
The Biden Administration has drifted closer to the Arab coalition's stance, which has likely damaged the US role as a mediator. The US special envoy for Yemen, Timothy Lenderking, has endorsed the sentiment that Houthi military attacks are the primary obstacle to peace in Yemen. However, the Houthis have their own definition of "ending the war in Yemen," which involves an unconditional end to the Saudi-led coalition's military intervention and the withdrawal of its forces from Yemen. The Houthis have repeatedly stated this publicly, and their refusal to extend the ceasefire for a fourth time in early October 2022 has added to concerns about their intentions to resume military operations.
The US has tried to build trust with the Houthis by engaging with Oman, Qatar, and Russia, but these attempts have not gained traction. The Houthis have refused to meet with UN and US envoys, and their political ambitions are deeply rooted in their religious beliefs. They are motivated by a desire to reinstate the Imamate, a theocracy in which Hashemites (or Sadah) ruled parts of northern Yemen until 1962.
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Yemen's internal divisions and regional grievances
The unity agreement in 1990 gave the north control over national and local decision-making, marginalising the south politically and depriving them of basic services. This led to discontent among southerners, who attempted to negotiate a federal system that would grant them some autonomy. However, their attempts were rejected, leading to a brief civil war in 1994.
The international community has been reluctant to address these regional grievances, which has hindered sustainable peace negotiations. The 2011 uprising and subsequent political negotiations aimed to resolve Yemen's future failed to adequately address the demands of the people. The GCC-brokered deal was perceived as deeply flawed, as it focused primarily on resolving conflicts between traditional political elites from the north while keeping corrupt leaders in power.
In May 2017, southern political leaders in Yemen declared a Transitional Political Council, seeking independence from the north. This move was supported by thousands of southern secession supporters who rallied against the president's decision to remove Aden's governor, Aidarous al-Zubaidi. Al-Zubaidi then became the head of the new Political Council, the highest political authority in the south.
The ongoing civil war has further exacerbated these divisions, with the Houthis, a rebel group with strong religious beliefs and political ambitions, becoming a significant player in the conflict. The Houthis have taken advantage of the situation to develop multiple income streams through illicit activities and have repeatedly stated their definition of "ending the war in Yemen" as an unconditional end to the Saudi-led coalition's military intervention and the withdrawal of its forces.
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The international community's neglect of the humanitarian crisis
Yemen's humanitarian crisis has been neglected by the international community, which has been reluctant to address the country's complex regional grievances. The conflict in Yemen has deep roots in the historical resentment of northern rule by those in resource-rich regions, who feel marginalised and deprived of basic services. This has been exacerbated by the civil war, with the ruling elite from the north maintaining control over national and local decision-making.
The international community's failure to address these regional divisions has hindered sustainable peace negotiations. The 2011 uprising brought the international community into political negotiations over Yemen's future, but the resulting GCC-brokered deal was widely seen as flawed and failing to meet the demands of the people. The deal focused on resolving conflicts between traditional political elites in the north, disregarding grievances from other regions, and granting immunity to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh.
The United Nations (UN) and the United States (US) have made diplomatic efforts to end the war, but these have been challenging. The Houthis, a key faction in the conflict, have repeatedly stated their demand for an unconditional end to the Saudi-led coalition's military intervention and the withdrawal of its forces from Yemen. The Houthis' political ambitions are driven by a strong religious belief that only those descended from the Prophet Muhammad have a right to rule over Muslims, and they seek to reinstate a theocracy in northern Yemen.
The UN and US special envoys have attempted to de-escalate violence and pursue diplomatic solutions, but the Houthis have often thwarted these efforts. The current UN envoy's attempts to broker a new agreement come amid concerns that the Houthis may be preparing for a new military offensive. The international community's attention to the conflict in Yemen has increased in recent months, but there is a risk that if Yemen recedes in international significance, the humanitarian crisis will be neglected, potentially worsening the situation.
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Frequently asked questions
The Houthis' refusal to engage in diplomatic processes and their continued military attacks have been a significant obstacle to peace in Yemen. The Biden administration's "diplomacy first" strategy has been ineffective, and the Houthis have continued to consolidate power.
The US has been implicated as a partisan in Yemen since the conflict's inception in 2014. The Obama administration provided logistical support to the Saudi military and greenlit the war in Yemen. The Biden administration has struggled to forge a new direction for US foreign policy in the region, and its attempts at diplomacy have been out of sync with the reality on the ground.
The United Nations has also been involved in trying to de-escalate the violence and broker agreements, but these efforts have been unsuccessful so far. A UN-brokered truce in 2022 collapsed when the Houthis and the Yemeni government failed to agree on conditions for an extension.
The failure of diplomacy has led to a continued state of insecurity and violence in Yemen, with the Houthis consolidating power and threatening Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other key international players. The humanitarian crisis in Yemen persists and could worsen if the conflict is not resolved.
Diplomacy may fail again due to the complex dynamics between the warring factions and external powers. The Houthis have shown little interest in a peace process, and the US and its Gulf partners have been unable to effectively pressure them to engage in diplomatic processes. Additionally, the focus on stable energy production and the treatment of Yemen as a secondary issue further complicate diplomatic efforts.
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