Jonah Patel
Political campaigns are becoming increasingly expensive, with media advertising accounting for a large part of the spending. Pollsters are hired by campaigns to provide ongoing analysis and strategy, and these pollsters are paid millions of dollars for their services. The Federal Election Commission (FEC) is the federal agency tasked with enforcing campaign finance laws and overseeing who is spending money and how. While there are strict rules about how money is raised and spent in political campaigns, the question arises: does a political campaign have to pay pollsters?
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What You'll Learn
Pollsters' methods
Some of the doubts about pollsters' methods include the wording of questions, the potential for leading questions, and the selection of interviewees. These doubts are often wrapped up in a general mistrust of the political parties, marketers, and media giants that pay for the polls.
To address these concerns, reputable pollsters follow a Code of Ethics, such as those outlined by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) and the Council of American Survey Research Organizations (CASRO). They also provide clear, detailed explanations of how the poll was conducted, including the source of the sample, the mode(s) of interviewing, and question wording.
High-quality polls use statistical adjustments, or "weighting," to ensure the results are representative of the public. For example, polls may adjust for variables such as age, sex, education, voter registration status, and political party affiliation. These polls also aim to capture a diverse range of perspectives by sampling from a database that includes a wide range of participants.
Despite these efforts, it remains challenging to measure public opinion accurately, as citizens' views are subject to change and influenced by various information sources.
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Quality of data
The quality of data collected by pollsters is a significant concern for the public and professionals alike. It is often difficult to ascertain the quality of the data, let alone justify broad conclusions from such data. Declining response rates, emerging technologies, and early voting pose challenges for even the most reputable pollsters.
Public opinion is a complex and ever-changing landscape, and attempts to measure it will invariably reveal inconsistency and change. This does not necessarily reflect a lack of education, information, or motivation on the part of the public but rather the innate "ambivalence" of human nature. As a result, citizens may rely on information shortcuts when making decisions in the political arena, with new and personal information superseding old and impersonal data.
To ensure data quality, reputable pollsters adhere to clear and detailed explanations of their methodologies, including the source of the sample, the mode(s) of interviewing, and question wording. High-quality polls also employ statistical adjustments ("weighting") to ensure the data aligns with an accurate profile of the public. For instance, polls conducted by the Pew Research Center adjust for variables such as age, sex, education, voter registration status, and political party affiliation.
Additionally, the major professional organizations of survey researchers have established codes of ethics for their members, outlining the responsibilities of pollsters regarding the treatment of respondents, their relationships with clients, and their accountability to the public. These ethical guidelines are designed to enhance the quality and integrity of the data collected.
Despite these efforts, doubts persist about the methods employed by pollsters. Concerns include the appropriateness of the questions asked, potential manipulation of question wording, and the selection of interviewees. These doubts are often intertwined with a broader mistrust of the political parties, marketers, and media organizations that commission and disseminate poll results.
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Public opinion
The quality of public opinion polls can vary, and it can be difficult for the public and professionals alike to ascertain the quality of the data. Pollsters who provide clear, detailed explanations about how a poll was conducted and by whom tend to be more accurate than those who do not. High-quality polls also have procedures in place to ensure the poll represents the public, even if response rates are low, and that the sample more closely matches the demographics of the full population. Credible polls also report their margin of error and sampling methods.
The funding of polls can also impact their accuracy. For example, if a poll is funded by an interest group, the pollster may ask leading questions to gather "scientific" proof that the public agrees with the group's demands. The questions asked by pollsters can also be manipulated to get the responses they want, and some respondents may answer questions just to be polite, or because they feel they ought to have an opinion.
In the context of political campaigns, the money spent on polls and pollsters can vary significantly. For example, in 2016, the Clinton campaign spent nearly $9 million on "polling," while the Trump campaign spent only $150,000. The real money in election polling goes to the internal pollsters hired by the campaigns themselves, who are paid for ongoing analysis and strategy. For example, the Beneson Strategy Group, which provided services to Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, charged at least $5 million for its services.
Overall, while public opinion polls can be a valuable tool for democracies and policymakers, it is important to approach them with a critical eye and consider the methods, funding, and potential biases involved.
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Leading public opinion
Firstly, public opinion is often measured through polls and surveys conducted by pollsters or survey researchers. These polls aim to gauge public sentiment on various issues, including political campaigns and candidates. While polls provide a tool to understand public opinion, they are often met with skepticism. People may question the methods and integrity of pollsters, including the wording of questions, the selection of interviewees, and potential biases introduced by the organizations commissioning the polls. As a result, it is crucial for pollsters to adhere to strict codes of ethics, provide transparent methodologies, and ensure their polls are representative of the diverse range of opinions within the population.
The art of leading public opinion also involves understanding the cognitive shortcuts that citizens often use when making political decisions. New and personal information tends to outweigh old and impersonal data in the minds of citizens. As a result, political campaigns focus on providing fresh and relatable narratives that resonate with their target audiences. This dynamic has intensified in the era of the permanent campaign, contributing to the artificiality and disingenuousness perceived in much of the public discourse.
In conclusion, leading public opinion is a multifaceted aspect of political campaigns. It requires a delicate balance between understanding public sentiment, strategically communicating ideas, and navigating the complex interplay between leaders' agendas and citizens' beliefs. While polls and surveys provide valuable data, they should be interpreted with caution, considering potential methodological biases and the evolving nature of public opinion. Ultimately, the ability to lead public opinion effectively can significantly influence the success of a political campaign and the direction of policy-making.
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Pollsters' ethics
While pollsters claim to adhere to ethical standards, many have doubts about their peers' ethics and the media's ability to distinguish between honest and dishonest polls. Basic ethical principles for pollsters include not copying others' work or allowing campaigns to influence results. However, some pollsters have been accused of adjusting their numbers to match published polls' results, which raises concerns about the integrity of their work.
The relationship between pollsters and campaigns can be complex. While pollsters are willing to accommodate campaigns' requests to test different assumptions, they insist that these alternative scenarios remain internal. If campaigns want to publish results, pollsters require that they reflect the model the pollster believes to be accurate. In cases where campaigns disagree, pollsters may publicly clarify their position or remove their name from the poll.
To ensure transparency and accuracy, reputable pollsters provide detailed explanations of their methods, including the source of the sample, interviewing techniques, and question wording. High-quality polls also employ statistical adjustments, known as "weighting," to ensure the results represent the public accurately.
Professional organisations of survey researchers, such as the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) and the Council of American Survey Research Organizations (CASRO), have established codes of ethics for their members. These codes outline pollsters' responsibilities in treating respondents, interacting with clients, and reporting poll results to the public.
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Frequently asked questions
Yes, political campaigns have to pay for polls. The Clinton campaign, for instance, spent nearly $9 million on "polling" alone. However, it is important to note that the cost of polls is just one component of a campaign's overall spending, which also includes media advertising, merchandise, and digital platforms.
Pollsters make money by providing ongoing analysis, strategy, and consulting services to political campaigns. They are paid for their expertise in interpreting data and shaping the candidate's messaging, policy, and campaign approach. Pollsters also generate revenue from commercial market research, where they gather information on consumer behaviour and preferences for corporate clients.
Pollsters face challenges such as declining response rates, emerging technologies, and early voting, which make it difficult to ensure the quality and accuracy of their data. They must also navigate ethical considerations, such as question wording and respondent selection, to maintain the integrity of their polls.
Polls provide valuable insights into the preferences and beliefs of voters, allowing campaigns to make informed decisions about resource allocation and strategy. They help track the likely outcomes of elections and guide policymakers and government officials in their decision-making processes. However, it is important to approach polls with a degree of skepticism, as they may be subject to errors and response biases.
