Eleanor Finch
Texas is a challenging state for any Democrat to win, having not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1976. However, Kamala Harris has a strong chance of flipping the state, with some polls showing her ahead of Donald Trump among younger voters. While some experts believe that Texas voters associate Harris with the Biden Administration's record on illegal migration, others argue that her stance on issues like gun violence and reproductive rights could appeal to younger Texans. Harris' campaign events in Texas indicate that she is not ignoring the state, and her ability to win over voters there could significantly impact the election.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Texas's voting history | Texas has not voted Democrat in a presidential election since 1976. It has voted Republican in the last 11 elections. |
| Texas's status as a swing state | Texas is not considered a swing state. However, some consider it a potential swing state as the margin of victory for the Republican candidate decreased from 9% in 2016 to 5.6% in 2020. |
| Kamala Harris's chances of winning Texas | Experts say Harris will not be able to translate her growing national support into winning Texas. However, one survey predicts she could break a 32-year record and achieve the Democrats' best result in Texas since 1992. |
| Voter demographics | Texas's urban and suburban areas are moving towards the Democrats. However, many Hispanic voters in South Texas have left the Democratic coalition. Harris is more popular among younger voters in Texas. |
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What You'll Learn
Kamala Harris's popularity among young voters
Texas is a challenging state for any Democratic presidential candidate to win, having not voted for a Democrat since 1976. The state is considered part of the Republican "red wall", and has voted for a Republican candidate in the last 11 elections.
Kamala Harris, the Democratic 2024 nominee, faces an uphill battle in Texas, especially given the state's shift towards the Republicans in recent years. Despite this, Harris has enjoyed a lead over Trump nationally, and some have suggested that Texas could be on the verge of a voter dynamic shift.
Harris's popularity among young voters is evident in polls, with a Harvard Youth Poll showing she leads Trump by 28 points among likely voters under 30 (60%-32%). The same poll also found that peer influence could be a key factor in youth turnout, with 79% of young Americans planning to vote when they believe their friends will, compared to just 35% when they think their peers will not participate. This indicates that young voters' decisions may depend more on their friends than their politics.
However, it is important to note that young conservatives are also a significant voting bloc, and they are more likely than their liberal peers to feel comfortable sharing their views. Additionally, the influence of social media platforms like TikTok has been cited as a factor in making young voters more conservative.
While Harris enjoys strong support from young Americans, it is unclear if this will be enough to translate into a victory in Texas, given the state's strong Republican leanings and the impact of other factors, such as the issue of illegal migrant crossings, which could harm her campaign in the state.
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Texas's status as a Republican state
Texas is generally considered a red state, having not voted for a Democratic candidate in a presidential election since Jimmy Carter in 1976. The state has been dominated by the Republican Party since the 1990s, with Republicans holding every statewide office. Texas is the most populous Republican state in the US, and the GOP has majorities in the State House and Senate, as well as control of both Senate seats in the US Congress.
The roots of Texas's status as a Republican state can be traced back to the Civil War and Reconstruction era. During Reconstruction, African Americans comprised about 90% of the GOP membership in Texas, and many served in the state legislature as Republicans. Despite a tumultuous period for the party in the late 19th century, the Republican Party gradually gained strength in Texas, particularly as memories of the Civil War faded.
In the 20th century, Texas continued to trend Republican, with the election of Governor William P. Clements, Jr., in 1978 marking the first Republican governor in over a century. The Republican Party solidified its dominance in the state in the 1990s, and it has remained the dominant political force ever since.
While there have been suggestions that Texas could be trending more Democratic in recent years, the state has continued to vote Republican in statewide elections through 2022. The state's location in the American South and the Bible Belt has also contributed to the GOP's enduring strength.
In summary, Texas's status as a Republican state is firmly established, with a long history of Republican dominance dating back to the Civil War and Reconstruction era. While there may be shifts in voter dynamics, Texas is not typically considered a swing state, and it remains a stronghold for the Republican Party in the 21st century.
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The impact of immigration policies
Texas is a challenging state for any Democratic candidate to win, and experts have expressed doubt about Kamala Harris's ability to turn the state blue. The state has not voted for a Democratic candidate in a presidential election since 1976, and predominantly Latino South Texas has shifted strongly towards the Republicans in recent years.
Kamala Harris's immigration policies could impact her chances in Texas and beyond. Immigration is a key and contentious issue in the 2024 presidential election, and Harris's stance has evolved to emphasize both enforcement and pathways to citizenship. She supports a bipartisan border security bill that would increase funding for border agents, expand detention facilities, and enhance asylum processing. Harris's policies also aim to address the root causes of migration, such as poverty and violence in Central America.
Harris's approach to immigration differs from that of Biden and Trump. Unlike Biden, who initially focused on a humanitarian approach, and Trump, who prioritized enforcement and deterrence, Harris aims to balance security with legal pathways for undocumented immigrants. Her border security bill includes funding for border patrol, asylum processing, and detention facilities, indicating a commitment to both enforcement and reform. Harris also plans to reform the asylum process by increasing the number of judges and officers, leading to faster case processing times.
The impact of Harris's immigration policies on her Texas bid is uncertain. On the one hand, her focus on border security could appeal to Texas voters concerned about illegal immigration. On the other hand, her association with the Biden administration's record-breaking migrant crossings at the border may harm her chances. Trump and other Republicans have already used this to portray her as unfit to be president.
To win Texas, Harris will need to address the concerns of voters who prioritize border security while also offering a compelling vision for managing immigration humanely and effectively. Her ability to strike this balance will likely influence her chances of victory in a state that has traditionally favored Republican candidates.
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The role of urban voters
Texas is generally considered a red state, having voted for a Republican candidate in the last 11 elections. However, some experts believe that Kamala Harris can turn Texas blue.
Urban and suburban areas in Texas have been moving towards the Democrats. The Texas Triangle, which includes Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio, houses more than 70% of the state's population and is trending leftward. This shift is attributed to the state's fast-growing, diverse, and predominantly young population.
Young Texans, especially those in urban areas, are a key demographic for Harris. They are disproportionately non-white and engaged in the 2024 election due to issues like gun violence and reproductive rights. Harris's social media presence has also helped her connect with young voters, who appreciate her ability to address their concerns and relate to their cultural, social, and educational world.
However, some young voters are hesitant about Harris due to the Biden administration's handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Additionally, Harris's role in addressing illegal border crossings may negatively impact her support among Texas voters.
While urban voters are shifting towards the Democrats, other factors, such as the shift of Hispanic voters towards the Republicans, may counterbalance this. Despite the growing enthusiasm for Harris among young urban Texans, it is uncertain if they can significantly influence the overall election results in the state.
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The influence of Hispanic voters
Texas is the second most populous state in the US, awarding 40 electoral votes. It is considered a red state, having not voted for a Democratic candidate since 1976. Texas is largely within the greater Bible Belt, which has contributed to the GOP's dominance over the last few decades.
Texas has a tri-ethnic population of non-Hispanic whites (Anglos), African Americans (Blacks), and Hispanics (Latinos). Latinos make up 15% of the US electorate and can be kingmakers in swing states. In the 2024 election, Donald Trump won a record share of the Latino vote, with 47% of Latino men voting for him, according to AP projections. He also made double-digit gains in majority-Hispanic counties along the Mexican border in Texas.
In the lead-up to the 2024 election, Vice President Kamala Harris visited Texas three times in July for administrative duties and campaign events. Experts, however, predicted that she would not be able to flip Texas, with Trump predicted to have an average lead of nearly 12 percentage points. Harris faced the challenge of Texas voters associating her with the record-breaking levels of illegal migrant crossings at the southern border during her time as Vice President.
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Frequently asked questions
While Kamala Harris has enjoyed a lot of support from young Texas voters, it is unlikely that she will be able to translate this into winning Texas. Texas is generally considered a red state, having not voted Democrat in a presidential election since 1976.
Texas is the second most populous state, awarding 40 electoral votes. It has voted for a Republican candidate in the last 11 elections, including for Trump in 2016 and 2020. Republicans have held all statewide offices since 1999.
Harris has visited Texas to raise money and generate exposure for herself and her campaign. She has also used Texas as the centerpiece for her argument about abortion access, telling voters in swing states that they could be next if Trump wins.
