Malcolm Rivera
Kamala Harris' future in politics has been a topic of discussion since her loss in the 2024 election. Despite this loss, Harris has maintained significant leads in early national polls and has a groundswell of support from her 2024 campaign. Harris has yet to announce whether she will run for California governor in 2026, which some see as a prerequisite to a 2028 presidential run. Harris has a history of winning statewide office in California and could become the first Black woman to be governor in America. However, some allies acknowledge that it would be a difficult transition from being Vice President to governor. Harris' supporters believe that she can recover from her 2024 election loss, pointing to her ability to bounce back from setbacks in the past.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Likeliest path to victory | Winning Pennsylvania |
| Other paths to victory | Winning Michigan and Wisconsin |
| Current position | Vice President |
| Election opponent | Former President Donald Trump |
| Current status of the race | Tied |
| Future plans | Mulling over a 2028 presidential run |
| Current focus | To remain a prominent figure in the Democratic Party |
| Plans for the short term | To decide whether to run for California governor by the end of summer 2025 |
| Supporters' opinions | Divided |
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What You'll Learn
Kamala Harris's path to victory in the Electoral College
As of March 2025, Kamala Harris has not yet announced whether she will run for governor of California in 2026. However, she has stated that she is "staying in this fight", and she maintains significant leads in early national polls of the field of possible candidates. Harris is reportedly intrigued by the idea of becoming the first Black woman to be governor in America and being the chief executive of the fifth-largest economy in the world.
Despite losing the 2024 election to Donald Trump, Harris is still considering a presidential run in 2028. She dominated a poll asking Democrats who they would back in the 2028 primary, with 36% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters supporting her. However, some donors and supporters are torn on the idea of another presidential run, citing concerns about the country moving in a more conservative direction and the challenging landscape for Democratic candidates.
In terms of her path to victory in the Electoral College in 2024, most political experts agree that Harris's likeliest path would have been through Pennsylvania, the biggest battleground state with 19 electoral votes. Winning Pennsylvania, along with the other two "blue wall" states of Michigan and Wisconsin, would have been the easiest route to the White House for Harris. However, polls showed a close race between Harris and Trump in Pennsylvania, with Trump slightly ahead.
In an alternate scenario, if Harris had won Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada but lost Pennsylvania, Trump still would have won the Electoral College. Arizona was also not enough to secure a victory for Harris without Pennsylvania. Therefore, the Keystone State was critical for Harris's path to the presidency in 2024.
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Harris's potential run for California governor
Kamala Harris, the former Vice President of the United States, is reportedly considering running for California governor in 2026. Harris has stated that she will decide whether to run by the end of summer 2025. If she enters the race, Harris would be the favourite to win the Democratic nomination, and Democrats are expected to easily retain the governorship in California.
Harris has not ruled out seeking the governorship since leaving Washington in January 2025 after a failed presidential bid. She has maintained a low profile since then, making only a few public appearances, including at the NAACP Image Awards, where she accepted the Chairman's prize. Harris has a history in California politics, having served as the state's attorney general before becoming US Senator.
Harris has long been rumoured to be interested in the idea of becoming the chief executive of the fifth-largest economy in the world and the first Black woman to be governor in America. If she were to win, she would make history as the first Asian American woman and the first Black woman to be governor of any state. Harris' supporters see a successful gubernatorial bid as a stepping stone to a 2028 presidential run, although some believe it would make a 2028 run less likely due to the short time between a gubernatorial inauguration and a potential presidential campaign.
Harris' potential run for California governor has already impacted the field of candidates, with several California Democratic candidates seeking other options. State Attorney General Rob Bonta has stated that he will not run for governor and will endorse Harris if she chooses to enter the race. Former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, who is currently in the race, has indicated that she would step aside for Harris.
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Harris's 2028 presidential run
Kamala Harris's 2028 presidential run has been the subject of much speculation, with some supporters and donors torn on the prospect. Harris herself has not ruled out a second run for the presidency, and there are several factors that could influence her decision and her chances of winning.
Firstly, Harris's approval ratings and public image are important considerations. After her 2024 campaign, one Harris adviser noted that she ended the race with higher approval ratings than other nominees who had lost, and that people were generally happy with the campaign she ran. This suggests that she may have a strong foundation to build on for a 2028 run. Additionally, Harris has significant name recognition, which could be an advantage in a crowded Democratic field.
Secondly, the impact of her running mate, Tim Walz, is worth considering. Walz has been described as an "appealing candidate" with the ability to connect with both rural and urban voters. He also has experience governing a politically diverse state. However, some sources indicate that Harris's 2024 campaign was negatively impacted by her running mate, with a source stating that "Joe Biden didn't just kill his own campaign – he killed hers, too." This suggests that the choice of running mate will be a critical factor in Harris's potential 2028 campaign.
Thirdly, the competition within the Democratic Party will play a significant role. Other potential Democratic candidates for the 2028 election include Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzker, Gretchen Whitmer, and Cory Booker. The presence of strong competitors within the party could influence Harris's decision and the overall dynamics of the race.
Finally, the political landscape and voter sentiment at the time of the election will be crucial. Some donors have expressed concerns about the lack of enthusiasm among Democrats and the potential challenges of fundraising. There are also uncertainties about the future of American democracy, with one donor questioning whether there will even be an election in 2028 due to the actions of Donald Trump. These factors could significantly impact Harris's chances of winning.
In conclusion, while Kamala Harris has not ruled out a 2028 presidential run, there are various factors that could influence her decision and her prospects for victory. Her approval ratings, running mate choice, competition within the Democratic Party, and the broader political landscape will all play a role in shaping her potential campaign. Ultimately, only time will tell if Harris decides to enter the race and how successful she may be.
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Harris's popularity in national polls
Kamala Harris' popularity in national polls has been a topic of interest for political observers and experts. In the lead-up to the 2024 election, Harris saw a bounce in her polling numbers, building a lead of nearly four percentage points towards the end of August. However, it's important to note that national polls only provide a partial picture of a candidate's popularity, as the US electoral system relies on the Electoral College, where each state's votes are roughly proportional to its population.
Harris' popularity was expected to peak during the Democratic National Convention in mid-August 2024, as such events typically provide a boost to candidates. Indeed, Harris' approval ratings climbed to record highs during this period, leading experts to characterise it as a "honeymoon period." However, experts also predicted that this surge in popularity would likely subside as the adrenaline from the convention faded, and the focus shifted to the weeks following Labor Day for a more accurate assessment of her standing in the polls.
In the context of the 2024 election, Harris' path to victory in the Electoral College was closely linked to her performance in key battleground states, particularly Pennsylvania. Polls in Pennsylvania showed a tight race between Harris and former President Donald Trump, with Trump holding a slim lead of just 0.2 points. Winning Pennsylvania, along with the other two "blue wall" states of Michigan and Wisconsin, was considered Harris' most straightforward route to securing the necessary 270 electoral votes.
Looking beyond the 2024 election, Harris has maintained significant leads in early national polls for the field of possible Democratic candidates for the 2028 presidential election. However, some supporters and donors express mixed feelings about another presidential run, with some suggesting that a gubernatorial victory would be a more feasible goal. Harris' potential candidacy for governor of California has attracted support from prominent state-level figures, and she is reportedly considering this option, with a decision expected by the end of summer 2025.
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Harris's performance in the 2024 election
Kamala Harris's performance in the 2024 election was a mixed bag. While she garnered significant media attention and had overwhelming positive news coverage, she ultimately lost the election to former President Donald Trump. Harris's campaign was marred by several challenges, including the short duration of her campaign and her inability to connect with core Democratic voting blocs. Biden's late decision to seek re-election also impacted her campaign negatively, as it left her with a shorter time frame to rally support.
However, Harris's performance in the election was not without its bright spots. She received 75 million votes, a significant number that her supporters argue cannot be ignored. Additionally, post-debate polls showed that the race between her and Trump was extremely close, with some polls even placing her ahead by a small margin. This suggests that Harris had strong support among a significant portion of the electorate.
In the aftermath of her loss, Harris's allies and supporters have pointed to several factors that may have contributed to her defeat. Some have criticised Biden's late entry into the race, arguing that it left her with insufficient time to build momentum. Others have noted that she struggled to connect with key Democratic voting groups, such as Black and Latino voters. Despite these challenges, Harris's supporters remain confident in her political future, citing the groundswell of support she captured during her campaign and the unusual circumstances of its condensed timeline.
Looking ahead, Harris has expressed interest in running for governor of California, a decision she will make by the end of the summer. A gubernatorial win would be historic, as she would become the nation's first Black female governor. However, some allies have acknowledged that transitioning from the vice presidency to a gubernatorial role could be challenging. Harris's future plans remain undecided, but her supporters believe she still has a chance to seek the Oval Office in 2028.
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Frequently asked questions
Most political experts agree that Vice President Kamala Harris’ likeliest path to victory in the Electoral College is through Pennsylvania. However, polls show that she is tied with former President Donald Trump in the race, and it is unclear if she can win.
Harris has not yet made a formal decision about running for governor, but she has stated that she is "staying in this fight". She is expected to decide by the end of the summer.
Harris is still considering a presidential run in 2028, but she is facing scepticism from some Democrats who are unsure if they want to give her another shot at the White House.
