Malcolm Rivera
Kamala Harris' loss to Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election has many wondering if she will ever win. Harris' path to victory in the Electoral College was predicted to be through Pennsylvania, but she lost the state by a narrow margin. Despite this, some believe she still has a chance to become president if Joe Biden steps down. Harris' supporters argue that her 75 million votes cannot be ignored, and she has a history of winning statewide office three times. However, critics point to her unsuccessful 2019 campaign and tactical choices that blurred the public's perception of her. While some Democrats are sceptical of giving her another chance, Harris is considering her options, which may include another White House run or a bid to be California's governor.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Likely path to victory | Winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin |
| Alternative path to victory | Winning Georgia and North Carolina |
| Probability of victory | Unlikely |
| Chance of victory in Pennsylvania | 50% |
| Votes in 2024 election | 75 million |
| Possible future path to victory | Joe Biden stepping down |
| Hurdles in 2024 election | Biden's unpopularity, negative advertising by Trump, blurred political profile |
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What You'll Learn
Kamala Harris's path to victory lies through Pennsylvania
With the race to the White House heating up, most political experts agree that Vice President Kamala Harris' best chance of victory lies in winning Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state with 19 electoral votes. The state has often been a predictor of the overall winner, voting for the eventual president in 48 out of 59 of the last elections. While Trump has a slight lead in Pennsylvania, the race is extremely close, and Harris can still pull off a win by focusing on specific areas and voter demographics.
Harris' path to victory in Pennsylvania may lie in the suburbs, particularly in areas like East Brandywine Township in Chester County, which has seen a population boom, an influx of new housing developments, and a shift towards the Democratic Party. The Philadelphia suburbs are also a key area of focus, where the Harris campaign is trying to attract moderate Republicans who are not strong Trump supporters. By targeting these wavering Republicans, Harris can potentially gain a significant number of votes.
Additionally, Harris can benefit from the support of Democratic-leaning voters in Pennsylvania. Data shows that a large portion of the unreturned mail ballots in the state are from Democratic voters, particularly in areas with a high concentration of Democratic supporters. If these ballots are returned and counted, they could give Harris a substantial boost in the vote totals.
To secure her victory, Harris must also focus on other Rust Belt states like Michigan and Wisconsin, which, along with Pennsylvania, form the "'blue wall'" that helped Biden win in 2020. Losing even one of these states could make it difficult for Harris to win the election. However, if she can sweep these crucial states, she can offset potential losses in other states and reach the required 281 electoral votes to clinch the presidency.
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Harris's stance on transgender issues was a weakness
While Kamala Harris has been praised for her commitment to LGBTQ+ rights, her stance on transgender issues has been more contentious. As a senator, Harris supported FOSTA/SESTA, a 2018 package of bills that aimed to curb sex trafficking by shutting down sites used by sex workers. While the intention was to protect vulnerable people, the laws had detrimental effects on sex workers, especially transgender sex workers, who relied on these sites for safety and screening tools. This stance caused some to question her commitment to transgender rights and even led to her being labelled a "complicated choice" for the LGBTQ+ community.
Harris has since evolved her position and now supports the decriminalisation of sex work. In addition, as Vice President, she has actively promoted transgender rights. The Biden-Harris administration has made LGBTQ+ rights a cornerstone of its agenda, suing states to block anti-trans laws and policies. They have consistently worked to protect transgender individuals from discrimination, including in healthcare, housing, and credit lending. The administration also reopened the military to transgender service members, reversing the previous administration's ban, and expanded access to gender-affirming healthcare.
Despite these efforts, some advocates remain sceptical of Harris's understanding of transgender issues. They point to her relatively limited LGBTQ+ platform during her 2020 presidential campaign, which received little attention outside of queer media. Additionally, her support for FOSTA/SESTA, while perhaps well-intentioned, indicated a potential lack of grasp of the complexities of transgender rights and the specific needs of the transgender community.
Overall, while Harris has taken significant steps to support and protect transgender individuals, her stance on certain issues, such as FOSTA/SESTA, has been seen as a weakness in her support for the transgender community. This could potentially impact her future political aspirations, as the LGBTQ+ community and its allies are important voting blocs.
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Trump's popularity with working-class voters
Kamala Harris's path to victory in the 2024 election was predicted to be through Pennsylvania, the biggest battleground state that year. However, Trump's commanding lead in much of the country meant that Harris would need to sweep Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to have a chance at winning.
There are several reasons why Trump has gained popularity among working-class voters. One factor is his ability to connect with their economic concerns. Trump's rhetoric often blamed immigrants, minorities, and China for the economic woes of the working class, tapping into fears and resentments. He presented himself as a candidate who would fight for the interests of hardworking Americans, regardless of their income. This messaging was particularly appealing to those in dire economic straits, who felt their grievances were not being addressed by other politicians.
Additionally, cultural and identity politics have played a role in Trump's appeal to working-class voters. His unapologetic and politically incorrect style resonated with voters who saw themselves as respectable, hardworking Americans. Trump's populism drew parallels with that of George Wallace, who also had strong support from white working-class voters.
However, it is worth noting that working-class voters are not a monolith, and their votes are not solely determined by identity politics. There may be material reasons behind their support for Trump, such as a desire for pro-worker and pro-family policies. Furthermore, while Trump has gained support from white working-class voters, it is important to recognize that Harris also made inroads with this demographic, winning majorities among blue-collar Blacks, Latinos, and non-evangelical whites.
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Biden's unpopularity burdened Harris's campaign
Harris's inability to shake off her ties to Biden is evident in her appearance on *The View*, where she stated that nothing came to mind when asked if there was anything she would have done differently from Biden during his presidency. This moment was quickly clipped by Trump's team, who used it to portray Harris as offering "more weakness, more war, more welfare for illegals, and even more taxes".
Evan Roth Smith, the lead pollster at BluePrint, confirmed that Biden's unpopularity impacted Harris's campaign. Biden's record and Harris's past were not the only factors that turned the race, according to Ryan Ryan Williams, who worked on Mitt Romney's 2012 campaign. He stated that voters showed a dramatic openness to the GOP and rejected the Democratic Party's platform and positions.
Harris's pollsters recognised the challenge she faced, consistently polling two points behind Trump in every state, while knowing that Trump typically overperformed. Despite this, Harris managed to capture a groundswell of support and 75 million votes, demonstrating that there is still scope for her to seek the Oval Office in the future.
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Harris's tactical choices blurred her public perception
Kamala Harris's tactical choices have had a significant impact on public perception, with some critics arguing that her political clarity and effectiveness fell short of expectations. Her ambiguous remarks and management style have been scrutinised, and her approval ratings have suffered as a result. Harris's decision to remain silent during her campaign, for instance, gave the impression that her shot at the White House was weak.
Harris's political prowess has been questioned, and her approval ratings have slumped to as low as 28%, making her one of the least favourable vice presidents in recent times. Her supporters, however, argue that her groundswell of support and the unusual circumstances of her condensed campaign prove she still has scope. They also point out that she won 75 million votes, which cannot be ignored.
Harris's role as Biden's successor seems almost certain, with 81% of respondents in favour. Yet, there are doubts about whether her vice presidency is driven by a genuine desire for change or simply a token effort to promote diversity. Harris's intersectionality brings a unique perspective to policy and governance, and despite her approval issues, she inspires a sense of hope, especially among women and minorities.
Harris's political future remains uncertain, and her path to victory in the Electoral College appears challenging. Most experts agree that winning Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state, is her likeliest path to victory. However, with a narrow margin between her and Trump in the polls, the election could go either way. Harris must also win Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and losing any one of these states would significantly impact her bid.
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Frequently asked questions
Kamala Harris lost the 2024 election to Donald Trump. However, there was speculation that she could become president if Joe Biden stepped down before his successor's inauguration.
Most political experts agree that Kamala Harris' likeliest path to victory in the Electoral College was through Pennsylvania. However, she would also have needed to win Michigan and Wisconsin.
Kamala Harris has won statewide office three times as California's attorney general and later as a US senator. She could attempt another run for the White House, or she could run to be California's governor.
