Simone Lawson
In the 2024 US presidential election, Kamala Harris was a candidate for the Democratic Party. Her husband, Doug Emhoff, believed that Harris could win Florida, a state with 30 electoral votes. However, polls showed that former President Donald Trump led Harris by about six points in Florida, a state he won in both 2016 and 2020. While Florida was once considered a swing state, it has become more reliably Republican in recent years. Ultimately, Harris lost the 2024 election to Trump, conceding the race and urging her supporters to focus on the future.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Number of Electoral College votes | 30 |
| Previous voting history | Republican |
| Current polling | Trump leads by 6 points |
| Voter demographics | 59% white, 22% Latino, 14% Black |
| Voter affiliation | Republicans outnumber Democrats by 1 million |
| Voter turnout | High |
| Ballot measures | Must be cast by 7 pm |
| Ballot format | Paper ballots, scanned by optical ballot scanners |
| Ballot counting | Quick and efficient |
| Candidate support | Harris supported by young, Black, and Latino voters |
Explore related products
What You'll Learn
- Kamala Harris's husband, Doug Emhoff, believes she can win Florida
- Florida has 30 electoral votes, the third most in the country
- Florida is not a swing state, historically favouring the Republican candidate
- Harris's support among Black voters is likely higher than polls suggest
- Harris lost the 2024 election to Donald Trump
Kamala Harris's husband, Doug Emhoff, believes she can win Florida
In an election rally in Florida, Emhoff told supporters, "We can win Florida. We should win Florida!". His comments come as a surprise to some, as Florida has not featured prominently on Harris's campaign schedule. However, Emhoff's visit to the state is significant, as it signals that the Democrats have not given up on Florida and believe that there is still a chance to win over voters.
Emhoff's optimism is shared by some political analysts, who point to the increasing demographic diversity in Florida as a potential advantage for Harris. With a large Latino population in the state, Harris needs to secure 60% of the Latino vote to prevail. While recent polls show only 50% of Latinos backing Harris, this number is likely to be undercounted and lagging behind the true figure. Nationally, 57% of Latinos support Harris, and this support could be reflected in Florida as well.
Additionally, Harris's strong support among Black voters cannot be overlooked. While polls show her support among Black voters at 75%, this number is expected to increase, as no Democratic nominee has ever received less than 83% of the Black vote. With the combination of Latino and Black voter support, Harris has a strong chance of winning Florida.
However, despite these optimistic factors, other polls suggest that Harris faces an uphill battle in Florida. A statewide poll published in November 2024 showed Trump leading Harris by six points. Another poll conducted by St. Pete Polls around the same time found that more than 50% of likely voters in Florida intended to support Trump, while less than 45% supported Harris. These polls indicate that Harris may need to work harder to win over voters in the state.
Donations by Permanent Residents: Political Campaigns and Laws
You may want to see also
Florida has 30 electoral votes, the third most in the country
Florida's large number of electoral votes makes it a key state in the US presidential election. The state has a history of favouring Republican candidates, and in 2024, Republicans outnumbered Democrats by more than 1 million out of more than 13.8 million registered voters. However, Florida has also been considered a swing state, with close vote margins that could determine the outcome of a presidential election.
Kamala Harris could potentially win Florida, according to data and polling numbers. While a statewide poll published in November 2024 showed former President Donald Trump leading Harris by six points, other polls indicated a slimmer lead for Trump, and there was optimism among state Democrats. Harris's support among Black and Latino voters in Florida could be key to her success.
Florida's election system is geared toward quick and efficient vote tabulation. After the disputed 2000 presidential election, the state standardised its election systems and cleaned up its canvassing process. Florida's deadlines are set to avoid late-arriving ballots, and optical ballot scanners in every precinct help with swift and accurate vote counting.
Kamala Harris: When Will She Speak?
You may want to see also
Florida is not a swing state, historically favouring the Republican candidate
Florida has been a crucial swing state in previous election cycles, but it has recently shifted significantly to the political right. The state is now considered a safe red state, with Trump's double-digit margin of victory solidifying this. Florida has two distinct cultural areas: North Florida and the Florida Panhandle are part of the conservative Deep South, while South Florida has a heavy Latin American influence with large Catholic Cuban, Haitian, Central and South American populations in the Miami metropolitan area.
In the 2024 election, Trump defeated Harris in Florida by 13.1%, the biggest margin of victory in the state since 1988. Trump also received the most votes for a political candidate ever in the state, breaking his previous record from 2020. This was the first time since 1984 that a Republican won the state with a margin of over one million votes. Florida has 30 electoral votes, the third most in the country, making it a highly desirable state for candidates to win.
Florida was the deciding state in the 2000 election, and it has been a key swing state in several other elections, including 1988, 2004, and 2012. However, in recent years, it has moved away from being a swing state, with Republicans outnumbering Democrats by more than one million out of more than 13.8 million registered voters in 2024. This shift can be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 election, which changed the landscape of Florida's electorate.
Florida's transition from a swing state to a reliable red state was cemented in the 2022 midterm elections, with Trump improving his performance from 2020 by 9.7%. This was the third-largest swing to the right in that election, after New York and New Jersey. Trump's victory in Florida was also significant because it was the first time since 1988 that the state was won with a double-digit margin and the first time since 1984 that a Republican won with a margin of over one million votes.
Kamala's Progress in Florida: A Comprehensive Overview
You may want to see also
Explore related products
Harris's support among Black voters is likely higher than polls suggest
Despite the polls suggesting that Harris's support among Black voters is lagging, there are several reasons to believe that her support is likely higher than what is being reported.
Firstly, historical data shows that no Democratic nominee has ever received less than 83% of the Black vote. The New York Times/Siena College poll, which places Harris's support among Black voters at just 75%, is therefore unlikely to be accurate. This is supported by the fact that the Biden/Harris 2020 ticket received 92% of the Black vote. It is highly improbable that there would be such a significant drop in support for the Democratic Party among Black voters from one election cycle to the next.
Secondly, the Black Voter Project, a survey conducted by Christopher Towler, a Political Science professor at Sacramento State, found that Black support for the Democratic Party grew as Harris took over the presidential ticket and continued to increase up to the election. This suggests that Harris's support among Black voters is higher than what the polls suggest, as this study tracked changes in attitudes among the same individuals over time.
Additionally, the excitement and energy that Harris's candidacy has brought to voters of colour cannot be ignored. The "Obama coalition", which refers to the overwhelming majority of people of colour aligning with a meaningful minority of white voters, is now back in play, making the states won by Obama newly winnable by the Democrats. This indicates that Harris's support among Black voters may be stronger than what the polls indicate, as her candidacy has energised this crucial demographic.
While it is challenging to predict the exact outcome of an election, it is clear that Harris's support among Black voters is likely to be higher than what the polls suggest. The historical voting patterns, the Black Voter Project findings, and the enthusiasm among voters of colour all indicate that Harris has significant support within the Black community.
Effective Campaign Strategies: Canvassing and its Impact
You may want to see also
Harris lost the 2024 election to Donald Trump
Kamala Harris lost the 2024 election to Donald Trump. Trump, the Republican Party's ticket, defeated Harris and her running mate, Tim Walz, the 41st governor of Minnesota. Trump improved upon his 2020 performance, capturing enough swing states to reach 270 Electoral College votes.
In the lead-up to the election, Harris's candidacy brought back into play not just the 2020 states but also the 2012 states won by Obama. The "Obama coalition" consists of the majority of people of color aligning with a meaningful minority of white voters. Harris's polling numbers among white voters were strong, and she was expected to win more than 90% of the Black vote. However, she needed 60% of the Latino community's votes to win Florida, and the latest polls showed just 50% backing her. Florida has 30 electoral votes, the third most in the country, and is no longer considered a swing state as it has favored Republican candidates in recent years.
Despite Harris's strong performance in the debates, Biden's initial bid for re-election, and the support of prominent Democratic politicians, Harris ultimately lost the election to Trump. Florida's efficient election system, geared toward quick tabulation, meant that results were available soon after polls closed at 7 pm. Although polling margins were close for months, especially in swing states, Trump's victory in Florida contributed to his overall success in the 2024 election.
Kamala's Chances in Florida: What's the Verdict?
You may want to see also
Frequently asked questions
Donald Trump won Florida in the 2024 election.
No, Kamala Harris conceded the 2024 election to Donald Trump.
According to polls, Trump led Harris by about six points in Florida. However, some sources suggest that Harris stood a chance in Florida, especially since polls were undercounting Harris's Black support.
Florida has 30 electoral votes, up from 29 in the 2020 election.
Florida is not a swing state since it has historically favored the Republican candidate. However, it was once considered the ultimate swing state.
