Simone Lawson
Could Kamala Harris win Florida? It's a question that has been on many people's minds, especially with the 2024 election results rolling in. Florida is a key state for any candidate, carrying 30 Electoral College votes, and while the state has traditionally leaned Republican, there is a possibility that Harris could pull off a surprise victory. Early polls showed Harris's chances of winning Florida slipping, with former President Donald Trump stretching his lead over the Democratic candidate. However, some data suggests that Harris could win Florida, as her candidacy has brought back into play not just the 2020 states but also the 2012 Obama coalition of people of colour and white voters.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Kamala Harris' chances of winning Florida | Slim, but not impossible |
| Florida's Electoral College votes | 30 |
| Registered voters in Florida | Republicans outnumber Democrats by more than 1 million |
| Latest poll results | Trump: 53%, Harris: 44% |
| Hispanic voters | Trump is maintaining his advantage |
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What You'll Learn
Kamala Harris's popularity in California
Harris's popularity in California is also evident from the fact that she is seriously considering running for governor of the state. Several California Democratic candidates for the 2026 gubernatorial race have already dropped out or said they will not run if Harris enters the race, indicating that she is a strong contender and a force to be reckoned with in California politics. Harris has set herself a deadline of the end of summer to decide whether to enter the race, and her potential candidacy has sent a ripple effect through the field of candidates.
However, it is important to note that Harris has faced some challenges in California as well. A Berkeley Institute of Government Studies/Los Angeles Times poll from February 2023 suggested that she would struggle electorally once President Joe Biden's political career is over. This poll found that Biden's approval rating in California was ticking up, while Harris trailed both California Governor Gavin Newsom and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders in the same poll.
Overall, while Kamala Harris enjoys significant support among California Democrats and is a strong contender for the governorship, there are also signs of hesitancy and challenges that she will need to address to solidify her popularity in the state.
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The impact of the border issue on Harris's campaign
The issue of the US-Mexico border has had a significant impact on Kamala Harris's presidential campaign. As the current vice president, Harris has faced criticism from Republicans for the Biden administration's handling of immigration. Confidence in the administration's ability to manage immigration has declined among both Republicans and Democrats. Harris has been specifically targeted for her failure to address the border issue, despite not holding a position of direct responsibility for border control.
Harris's first visit to the US-Mexico border as the Democratic presidential nominee was an attempt to counter the criticism and showcase her plans for border security and immigration. However, the trip also drew attention to the sharp differences between her and Trump's immigration policies, with Harris facing backlash from Trump supporters.
Trump and his campaign have portrayed Harris as incompetent and weak on border security, using negative advertising to label her a failed "border czar." They have also criticised her for not taking a tougher stance on illegal immigration and for the Biden administration's initial approach of creating new pathways for migrants.
On the other hand, Harris has criticised Trump's zero-tolerance policies, which included separating families at the border, and his promise to conduct the largest domestic deportation in US history if re-elected. Harris's supporters largely oppose mass deportations and favour more humanitarian approaches to immigration.
The border issue has become a key factor in the Florida polls, where Trump has maintained an advantage, although recent controversies may impact his support among Hispanic voters in the state. Harris's chances of winning Florida have been rated as low, but the possibility of a surprise victory in this traditionally Republican-leaning state has not been ruled out.
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Donald Trump's lead in Florida polls
Florida is a key state for Trump, carrying 30 Electoral College votes. The state has consistently voted Republican in the past few election cycles, and the majority of voters in Florida are Republican.
Trump has a strong lead in the polls for Florida, with a 14-point lead in a head-to-head race with Harris in one poll, and a 13-point lead in a full ballot including independent and third-party candidates in another. In a St. Pete Polls survey of 1,227 likely Florida voters, more than 50% intended to back Trump, while under 45% supported Harris. A Hunt Research survey of 1,234 likely voters in Florida found that Trump is on track to win Florida "by a comfortable margin," with an estimated 49.7% of the vote over Harris's 43.7%. In a head-to-head contest, Trump's lead slid to 5.1%, with an estimated 49.9% of the vote against Harris's 44.8%. Another poll by Florida Atlantic University gave Trump a 9-point lead over Harris.
However, Harris is ahead among voters whose ballots have already been cast. In addition, a national survey of 3,385 likely voters gave Harris a 3-point lead over Trump overall (49% to 46%).
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The effect of dissatisfaction with national politics on Harris's chances
The dissatisfaction with national politics in Florida could have a significant impact on Kamala Harris's chances of winning the state in the 2024 election. While Florida is a key state for any presidential candidate, with 30 Electoral College votes, it has consistently voted Republican in recent election cycles. However, there are several factors at play that could influence the outcome.
Firstly, there is widespread dissatisfaction among Floridians towards national politics. A Hunt Research survey found that 66% of voters in the state believe the country is on the wrong track. The federal government's response to recent hurricanes, such as Helene and Milton, was also criticized by 46% of respondents in the survey as "poor" or "terrible". This dissatisfaction could drive voters towards alternative options, potentially benefiting Harris.
Secondly, the performance and popularity of the Republican Governor, Ron DeSantis, could influence the election results. While a strong majority of Floridians are satisfied with DeSantis, his recent actions, such as the "Don't say gay" bill and the regulation of books and classroom discussions, have sparked controversy and drawn criticism from fellow Republicans and voters. These actions could impact the Republican Party's performance in the state, potentially creating an opportunity for Harris to gain support.
Thirdly, the lead-up to the 2024 election has seen a shift in voter priorities. Traditionally, Florida voters have been primarily concerned with issues such as immigration and border control. However, in 2024, the cost of living has emerged as a top priority for Floridians. With rising rents, escalating consumer goods prices, and increasing concerns about housing costs and property insurance, voters are seeking more attention and action from their political representatives. This shift in priorities could influence their voting decisions, potentially benefiting candidates who effectively address these economic concerns.
Lastly, the performance and appeal of the candidates themselves will play a crucial role. While Donald Trump has a strong base of Republican supporters in Florida, his controversial comments and associations could alienate some voters. On the other hand, Harris's performance as Vice President and her ability to connect with Floridians on their pressing concerns will be vital to her chances.
In conclusion, the dissatisfaction with national politics in Florida could create opportunities for Harris to gain support, especially if she effectively addresses the economic concerns of voters. However, Florida's recent voting record as a Republican-leaning state and Trump's existing support base present significant challenges for Harris. The interplay of these factors will ultimately determine Harris's chances of winning Florida in the 2024 election.
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The importance of Florida's 30 Electoral College votes
Florida's 30 Electoral College votes are crucial in determining the outcome of the US presidential election. With a large and diverse population, Florida is a key battleground state that can significantly influence the election results.
Florida's Electoral College votes have historically been hotly contested, with the state considered a crucial swing state. In recent years, however, Florida has shifted to the political right, with Donald Trump winning the state in both the 2020 and 2024 elections by significant margins. This shift has solidified Florida's position as a safe red state, making it a key state for Republican candidates to secure.
The importance of Florida's Electoral College votes lies in its large number of votes compared to other states. With 30 Electoral College votes, Florida is the third-most electorally powerful state in the country, surpassing New York. This means that winning Florida's Electoral College votes can provide a significant boost to a candidate's chances of winning the presidency.
Additionally, Florida's diverse and rapidly growing population make it a highly contested state. Influxes of retirees, service workers, and various cultural groups have transformed Florida into a politically and economically diverse state. This diversity can make Florida a challenging state for candidates to predict, as voter preferences can vary widely across different demographics.
The outcome of Florida's Electoral College votes can also have a significant impact on the composition of the US Congress. With a large number of Congressional districts, Florida's Electoral College votes can influence the balance of power in the House of Representatives, further impacting the direction of the country's politics.
In conclusion, Florida's 30 Electoral College votes are of paramount importance in US presidential elections. The state's large and diverse population, coupled with its significant number of Electoral College votes, make it a key battleground that can sway the outcome of the election. As such, candidates must pay close attention to Florida and its unique political landscape.
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Frequently asked questions
Kamala Harris' chances of winning Florida are slim, according to polls conducted in October and November 2024. However, one source noted that "if Harris were to win, no one should be surprised".
Polls conducted in October and November 2024 showed that Donald Trump was leading Kamala Harris in Florida. However, Harris was ahead among voters whose ballots had already been cast.
Florida has 30 electoral votes, up from 29 in the 2020 election.
Florida has consistently voted Republican in the past few election cycles. However, in 2020, Joe Biden won in Miami-Dade and Broward counties.
