Omar Bennett
India and Pakistan have had a complex and hostile relationship since their independence in 1947, with both countries engaging in numerous armed conflicts and military standoffs. Despite this, India has not broken diplomatic ties with Pakistan. One reason for this could be the potential human cost of further conflict, as well as the possibility of Pakistan increasing its dependence on China, which could threaten India's national interests. In addition, India and Pakistan have attempted to resolve their disputes through diplomatic talks and confidence-building measures, such as the Srinagar to Muzaffarabad bus service, which allowed for trade and tourism across the border. While these efforts have not always been successful, they demonstrate a willingness on both sides to pursue peaceful resolutions and avoid a complete breakdown of diplomatic relations.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| History of armed conflict | Three major wars, one undeclared war, and numerous armed skirmishes and military standoffs since 1947 |
| Partition of British India | Displacement of up to 15 million people and a death toll estimated between several hundred thousand and one million |
| Kashmir conflict | Both countries rule the disputed territory in part but claim it in full, triggering multiple wars |
| Diplomatic efforts | Multiple attempts to improve relations, including summits in 1972, 1999, and 2001, and the establishment of a bus service in 2005 |
| US mediation | Limited success due to parallel relationships with both countries; intervention in the 1999 Kargil War averted nuclear war |
| Trade ties | India's abrogation of Article 370 in 2019 led to Pakistan halting trade; bus service between the countries has been inactive since 2019 |
| Water agreements | The Indus Waters Treaty governs rivers flowing from India to Pakistan; water is a potential source of conflict |
| Refugee crisis | Communal violence and repression in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) in 1949 led to an influx of Hindu refugees into India |
| Sports diplomacy | Cricket and hockey matches between the two countries have often been political in nature |
| China factor | Breaking ties with Pakistan may push them further into China's orbit, leading to a potential threat |
| Terrorism | India accuses Pakistan of using terrorism as a tool for diplomacy and supporting Islamist militants |
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What You'll Learn
- War is not favourable for either country, and talks are preferred to cutting ties
- India does not want to push Pakistan further into China's sphere of influence
- Diplomatic ties can be used to pressure Pakistan over Kashmir and terrorism
- The two countries have a history of trade and cultural exchange
- Both countries have attempted to improve relations through confidence-building measures
War is not favourable for either country, and talks are preferred to cutting ties
India and Pakistan have had a complex and hostile relationship since their independence in 1947. The partition of British India into two new sovereign nations—a Hindu-majority India and a Muslim-majority Pakistan—displaced up to 15 million people and resulted in significant violence and a death toll estimated to be between several hundred thousand and one million people. Since then, the two countries have fought in numerous armed conflicts, including three major wars in 1947, 1965, and 1971, and the unofficial Kargil War in 1999. The Kashmir conflict has been a significant source of tension and has served as the catalyst for every war between the two states, except for the 1971 war, which occurred alongside the Bangladesh Liberation War.
Despite the strained relationship and frequent skirmishes, India and Pakistan have not broken diplomatic ties completely. War is not a favourable option for either country, as it would likely result in significant casualties and further destabilize the region. Both countries possess nuclear weapons, and the potential use of such weapons in a conflict would have catastrophic consequences.
Instead of breaking diplomatic ties, both countries have occasionally engaged in talks and confidence-building measures to resolve their differences. For example, the 1972 Shimla summit, the 1999 Lahore summit, and the 2001 Agra summit were all attempts to improve relations. Additionally, the United States has made several attempts to mediate tensions, particularly around the Kashmir dispute, with varying levels of success.
While some individuals in both countries may advocate for a more aggressive approach or even a complete break in diplomatic ties, others recognize the potential for mutual growth and improved citizen welfare through better relations. Breaking diplomatic ties could indirectly lead to war, causing unnecessary death and suffering for innocent people on both sides. Therefore, talks are preferred to cutting ties, even if progress towards peace has been slow and challenging due to the complex nature of the relationship.
In recent years, there have been efforts to resume diplomatic and trade ties, such as the Srinagar to Muzaffarabad bus service initiated in 2005, which allowed for cross-border tourism, family visits, and local trade. However, this bus service has been inactive since 2019 due to escalating tensions. With general elections in both countries in 2024, there is hope that the political leadership will focus on confidence-building measures and bilateral dialogue to improve relations and avoid the potential catastrophe of war.
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India does not want to push Pakistan further into China's sphere of influence
India and Pakistan have a complex and largely hostile relationship with a history of armed conflicts, including three major wars and one undeclared war since their independence in 1947. The Kashmir conflict has been the catalyst for every war between the two nations except the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971, which occurred alongside the Bangladesh Liberation War.
Despite the tumultuous relationship, India does not want to push Pakistan further into China's sphere of influence. There are several reasons for this:
Firstly, India is wary of China's growing influence in the region. China has been increasing its presence in South Asia through its "New Silk Road" strategy, offering economic and development assistance to countries like Pakistan. India does not want to risk Pakistan becoming even more reliant on China, which could further strengthen China's position in the region.
Secondly, India recognizes the potential consequences of a complete breakdown in diplomatic relations with Pakistan. With tensions already high between the two countries, severing diplomatic ties could be seen as an act of aggression and push Pakistan closer to China. India may prefer to keep communication channels open to have some influence over Pakistan's decisions and actions.
Additionally, India may also consider the potential impact on regional stability. With both countries possessing nuclear weapons, any escalation of tensions could have catastrophic consequences. By maintaining diplomatic relations, India may aim to manage the conflict and prevent it from spiraling out of control.
Furthermore, India's decision to maintain diplomatic ties with Pakistan may be influenced by its own strategic interests. By engaging diplomatically, India can focus on addressing its security concerns, such as Pakistan's attempts at destabilization in Kashmir and Punjab, and the issue of post-NATO Afghanistan, where Pakistan is attempting to exert control through proxies.
Finally, India may also consider the potential impact on its international image. As a democracy, India's reputation on the world stage is relatively positive compared to China. By maintaining diplomatic relations with Pakistan, India may aim to project itself as a responsible and peaceful nation, especially in contrast to China's more aggressive or coercive diplomatic approach.
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Diplomatic ties can be used to pressure Pakistan over Kashmir and terrorism
India and Pakistan have a complex and largely hostile relationship, with a history of conflict and tension. Despite this, India has not broken diplomatic ties with Pakistan, and there are several reasons why maintaining these ties can be beneficial in pressuring Pakistan over issues related to Kashmir and terrorism.
Firstly, diplomatic ties provide a channel for dialogue and negotiation. India has consistently sought peaceful and cooperative relations with Pakistan through initiatives such as the Composite Dialogue between 2004 and 2008, which addressed various outstanding issues. Maintaining diplomatic ties allows India to engage in negotiations and push for resolutions to the Kashmir dispute and terrorism concerns. Breaking diplomatic ties would limit these opportunities for direct communication and increase the likelihood of escalation.
Secondly, diplomatic ties enable India to exert international pressure on Pakistan. By maintaining relations, India can highlight and bring attention to Pakistan's actions on the world stage. This includes lobbying other countries and international organisations to take a stance against Pakistan's activities in Kashmir and its alleged support for terrorism. India has already taken steps in this direction, such as withdrawing the Most Favoured Nation status from Pakistan in 2019.
Thirdly, diplomatic ties provide India with access to Pakistan and a presence in the country. This access can be leveraged to gather intelligence, monitor the situation on the ground, and exert influence within Pakistan. Breaking diplomatic ties would limit India's ability to directly engage with Pakistan and potentially reduce its ability to gather critical information.
Additionally, maintaining diplomatic ties can be a tool to pressure Pakistan indirectly. By keeping the channels of communication open, India can signal its willingness for a peaceful resolution while also applying pressure through economic, political, and diplomatic means. This approach aligns with India's "Neighbourhood First Policy," which seeks normal neighbourly relations in an environment free from terror, hostility, and violence.
Finally, breaking diplomatic ties could lead to further escalation and potential military conflict. With the history of armed conflicts between the two nations, maintaining diplomatic relations serves as a crucial tool to prevent tensions from escalating into full-scale war. By engaging diplomatically, India can exert controlled pressure while also exploring avenues for de-escalation and peace.
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The two countries have a history of trade and cultural exchange
India and Pakistan have a complex and largely hostile relationship, with a history of conflict and territorial disputes. However, the two countries also share cultural similarities and a long history of trade and cultural exchange.
Northern India and Eastern Pakistan share similar cultures, cuisines, and languages due to their common Indo-Aryan heritage, which spans through both countries and the northern subcontinent. The Punjab region was split between the two countries following their independence and partition in 1947, and Punjabi is spoken in both nations. Hindustani is the lingua franca of North India and Pakistan and the official language of both countries, under the standard registers of Hindi and Urdu, respectively.
Pakistani singers, musicians, comedians, and entertainers have achieved widespread popularity in India, particularly in the Indian film industry, Bollywood. Likewise, Indian music and film are very popular in Pakistan. Cricket and hockey matches between the two nations have often been political in nature, with "cricket diplomacy" being used to prevent India from supporting the Soviets during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. In April 2010, a high-profile cross-border marriage between Pakistani cricketer Shoaib Malik and Indian tennis star Sania Mirza received much media attention in both countries.
Trade relations between India and Pakistan have been strained in recent years, with the bulk of trade being routed through third countries like Dubai. However, there is a significant amount of illegal trade and smuggling taking place between the two countries, indicating a suppressed desire for economic cooperation. In 1976, diplomatic and trade relations were re-established, and in 1988, the two countries reached a mutual understanding, pledging not to attack nuclear facilities and initiating agreements on cultural exchanges and civil aviation. In 2012, India announced the removal of restrictions on FDI investment from Pakistan, and Pakistan expressed willingness to resolve disputes and improve bilateral relations.
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Both countries have attempted to improve relations through confidence-building measures
India and Pakistan have a complex and largely hostile relationship, with a history of conflict and tension. Despite this, both countries have attempted to improve relations through confidence-building measures (CBMs). CBMs are tools used by adversarial nations to foster trust and resolve conflicts. While CBMs have been employed in Western international relations, their success in non-Western contexts has been more contested.
In the case of India and Pakistan, CBMs have been utilised with mixed results. On March 10, 1983, the two countries signed an agreement establishing an Indo-Pakistan Joint Commission to strengthen good neighbourly relations and promote cooperation in areas outside the military and political spheres. This led to the creation of four sub-commissions for economic, health, scientific, and technical cooperation. Additionally, foreign secretary-level talks resulted in several non-military CBMs, including agreements to release detained fishermen and ease visa restrictions for business people and religious pilgrims. The reestablishment of a hotline between the prime ministers of the two countries, which had been suspended after the conflict in 1989-1990, was another outcome of these talks.
Nuclear Confidence-Building Measures (NCBMs) have also been a focus, given that both India and Pakistan are nuclear-armed nations. The Lahore Declaration, for example, states that the countries will consult each other on security concepts and nuclear doctrines to develop comprehensive NCBMs. However, the absence of an institutionalised NCBMs regime has been identified as an obstacle to effectively managing crises. The 2019 Pulwama-Balakot crisis and the 2022 accidental BrahMos missile launch highlighted the need for stronger mechanisms for communication, transparency, and restraint.
While the Composite Dialogue in 2004 resulted in the negotiation of two successful NCBMs, it has since broken down, and the working group on NCBMs has been inactive since 2012. The institutionalisation of NCBMs is seen as crucial to improving relations, providing dedicated agencies and resources to facilitate communication and cooperation.
Overall, while India and Pakistan have attempted to utilise CBMs to improve relations, their effectiveness has been limited. The complex history and ongoing tensions between the two nations present significant challenges to the successful implementation and impact of these measures.
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Frequently asked questions
India and Pakistan have a complex and largely hostile relationship that is rooted in a multitude of historical and political events, most notably the partition of British India in 1947. Both nations have fought in numerous armed conflicts since their independence and have held a shaky cease-fire agreement since 2003. Despite the tensions, breaking diplomatic ties is not a viable option as it would lead to war and the loss of innocent lives. Instead, India is open to dealing with Pakistan through diplomatic talks to solve issues, especially regarding cross-border terrorism.
The Kashmir conflict has been a significant dispute between the two nations, serving as the catalyst for every war except the 1971 war, which occurred alongside the Bangladesh Liberation War. Other issues include conflicting territorial claims, cross-border terrorism, and water rights.
There have been several attempts to improve relations, including the 1972 Shimla summit, 1999 Lahore summit, and the 2001 Agra summit. In 2005, a bus service from Srinagar to Muzaffarabad was initiated as a confidence-building measure, allowing tourists and families to visit across the border and facilitating local trade.
Cricket matches between India and Pakistan have often been political in nature. "Cricket diplomacy" has been employed by both countries to improve relations, such as during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan when General Zia-ul Haq visited India for a cricket match to prevent India from supporting the Soviets.
