Malcolm Rivera
The Qing Dynasty was founded by Manchus, a sedentary farming people descended from the Jurchens, who made up the majority of the population. In 1636, Hong Taiji proclaimed the Great Qing dynasty, and it became a Chinese empire in 1644. By the early 20th century, the Qing court began to move towards a constitutional monarchy, with government bodies like the Advisory Council established and a parliamentary election to prepare for a constitutional government. However, the dynasty came to an end in 1912, with the abdication of the Xuantong Emperor. This has led to many discussions and speculations about what would have happened if the Qing Dynasty had successfully reformed into a constitutional monarchy.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Date of Qing Dynasty's establishment | 1636 |
| Founder | Nurhaci, leader of the Jianzhou Jurchens and House of Aisin-Gioro |
| Type of government | Absolute monarchy |
| Date of transition to constitutional monarchy | 8 May 1911 |
| Reason for transition | Public pressure for the 'speedy establishment of a parliament' |
| Model for transition | Meiji Japan |
| Type of constitutional monarchy | Right-authoritarian state |
| Alternative history | Could have collapsed due to actions of its prime minister |
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What You'll Learn
The Qing dynasty's fall
The Qing Dynasty was founded by the Manchus, a sedentary farming people descended from the Jurchens, who lived in modern-day Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces. In the 17th century, the Jurchen chieftain Nurhaci unified the nearby Jurchen clans and founded the Later Jin dynasty, renouncing Ming overlordship. His son Hong Taiji was declared Emperor of the Great Qing in 1636. The Qing dynasty became a Chinese empire in 1644, but resistance from Ming rump regimes and the Revolt of the Three Feudatories delayed the complete conquest until 1683, marking the beginning of the High Qing era.
By the early 20th century, the Qing court began to move towards a constitutional monarchy, influenced by Japan's constitutional system and its rise as a major imperialist power. The Outline of a Constitution by Imperial Decree unveiled in 1908, along with parliamentary and electoral laws, was modelled after the Meiji constitution. However, the Manchu-ruled empire faced significant challenges, including foreign incursions, the Opium Wars, and the loss of territory in the Sino-Japanese War. These events led to increasing pressure for reform or revolution, particularly from millions of Chinese living overseas.
Sun Yat-sen, a nationalist with socialist tendencies, led the Revolutionary Alliance or Tongmenghui, which attempted several revolts against the Qing Dynasty. In 1911, a successful uprising in Wuchang sparked a nationalist revolt, and the Qing court agreed to transform authoritarian imperial rule into a constitutional monarchy, naming Yuan Shikai as the new premier of China. However, before he could retake captured areas, provinces began to declare their allegiance to the Revolutionary Alliance. The 1911 revolution, led by southern Chinese revolutionaries, established the Republic of China and ended the imperial system. The emperor and the royal family abdicated the throne in February 1912, marking the fall of the Qing Dynasty.
The new government faced challenges in unifying the country and implementing sweeping reforms. The Qing withdrawal left a power vacuum in certain regions, leading to the rise of warlords who controlled their territories independently. The fall of the Qing Dynasty and the establishment of the Republic of China were significant steps towards modernising and reforming China, but the process was complex and influenced by both internal and external factors.
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The rise of Mao and communism
The Qing dynasty was founded by Manchus, a sedentary farming people descended from the Jurchens. The early form of the Manchu state was founded by Nurhaci, the chieftain of a minor Jurchen tribe. In 1636, Hong Taiji proclaimed the Great Qing dynasty. The Qing government was established as an absolute monarchy, but by the early 20th century, the Qing court began to move towards a constitutional monarchy. This included the restructuring of the national education, judicial, and fiscal systems, as well as the abolition of the imperial examination system in 1905.
In this alternate history, the Qing dynasty successfully reformed into a constitutional monarchy but ultimately fell due to the actions of one of its prime ministers. This could have paved the way for Mao's rise to power and the spread of communism.
Mao Zedong was one of the first communists to join the Nationalist Party (Kuomintang) in 1923. He witnessed the revolutionary potential of the peasantry and sought to channel their spontaneous protests into a network of peasant associations. In 1926, Chiang Kai-shek set out on the Northern Expedition, aiming to unify the country under his leadership and overthrow the conservative government in Beijing. Mao investigated the peasant movement and predicted the rise of a powerful force that would overthrow the rulers. However, this prediction did not come true, and Chiang Kai-shek turned against the worker and peasant revolution.
Mao's brand of communism, known as Maoism, emphasized the need for a revolution to unify the Chinese nation and bring about progressive change. He believed that the transition to communism required the overthrow of rulers by the people, as capitalists would not voluntarily adopt communism. Mao's writings during this period lacked a clear explanation of his theoretical framework, but they indicated a shift in orientation.
Mao's interpretation of Marxism, adapted to Chinese conditions and cultural traditions, played a central role in his emergence as the acknowledged leader of the Communist Party. His time in the wilderness can be divided into four phases, the first of which involved developing guerrilla warfare tactics with Zhu De, the commander-in-chief of the army. The second phase, the Jiangxi period, centred on the founding of the Jiangxi Soviet (Chinese Soviet Republic) in 1931, with Mao as chairman. The third phase, the Yan'an period, was characterized by a renewed united front with the Nationalists against Japan and Mao's rise to unchallenged supremacy in the party. The final phase included the Rectification Campaign of 1942-43, which aimed to educate new party members in Marxist theory and Leninist principles.
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The role of Prime Ministers
Assuming the Qing Dynasty successfully reformed into a constitutional monarchy, the role of the Prime Minister would be crucial in shaping the new government. The Prime Minister would be the head of the government and the chief advisor to the monarch. While the monarch would still hold ultimate authority, the Prime Minister would be responsible for the day-to-day administration of the country.
In this alternate timeline, the Qing Dynasty could have appointed a Prime Minister to lead the responsible cabinet that was created in 1911. This Prime Minister would have had significant power and influence in shaping the new constitutional monarchy. They would have been responsible for implementing the much-needed reforms in national education, the judicial system, and fiscal policies. The Prime Minister would also have played a crucial role in navigating the complex domestic and foreign affairs of the time, including dealing with the rise of warlords and the power vacuum left by the Qing withdrawal.
The Prime Minister's role in a constitutional monarchy is often to strike a balance between respecting the monarch's position and driving democratic change. In the case of Qing China, the Prime Minister might have had to grapple with the challenges of transforming an absolutist regime into a more representative one. This could have included introducing popular representation, fostering nationalism, and improving legislation to meet the demands of the people.
Additionally, the Prime Minister would have had to address the threats posed by foreign incursions and the loss of territory. They would have needed to strengthen the military and centralize power, as Gong did in our timeline from 1875 to 1887. The Prime Minister might have also had to make difficult decisions regarding territorial concessions and maintaining diplomatic relations with foreign powers.
It is important to note that the success or failure of a constitutional monarchy often rests on the effectiveness and competence of its Prime Minister. In this hypothetical scenario, the actions and decisions of the Prime Minister could have either prolonged the Qing Dynasty or accelerated its collapse, potentially leading to the rise of Mao and the spread of communism.
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The impact on Sun Yat-Sen
Sun Yat-Sen was a world-renowned revolutionary who devoted his entire life to overthrowing the Qing Dynasty and setting up the Republic of China. He is revered in both Taiwan and the People's Republic of China for his role in ending the Qing rule and overseeing the conclusion of the Chinese dynastic system.
In the alternate scenario where the Qing Dynasty successfully reformed into a constitutional monarchy, Sun Yat-Sen's legacy would likely be impacted negatively. This is because, in a semi-democratic regime, people are not always loyal to the democracy, and if the Qing Dynasty collapsed soon after democratizing, Sun Yat-Sen would likely be blamed.
Sun Yat-Sen's political philosophy, known as the Three Principles of the People, sought to modernize China by advocating for nationalism, democracy, and the livelihood of the people in an ethnically harmonious union. This philosophy may have been less necessary if the Qing Dynasty had successfully modernized and transitioned to a constitutional monarchy, as Sun Yat-Sen's goals for China may have been partially achieved.
Additionally, Sun Yat-Sen's path to becoming the first provisional president of the Republic of China may have been blocked if the Qing Dynasty had successfully reformed. It is possible that he would have still played a significant role in Chinese politics, but his exact trajectory would likely have been different.
Sun Yat-Sen's influence extended beyond China, as he spent many years in exile, undermining the Qing Dynasty from abroad and raising money for his revolutionary party. His time in exile and his eventual return to China to lead a series of revolutions may not have occurred if the Qing Dynasty had successfully transitioned to a constitutional monarchy.
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A semi-democratic regime
The Qing Dynasty was founded by Manchus, a sedentary farming people descended from the Jurchens, who constituted a minority of the Chinese population. By the early 20th century, the Qing court began to move towards a constitutional monarchy, with the establishment of government bodies like the Advisory Council and a parliamentary election to prepare for a constitutional government.
In an alternate timeline, the Qing Dynasty successfully modernizes and becomes a constitutional monarchy. However, it is important to note that a constitutional monarchy does not equate to a democracy, as seen in the examples of Japan and Germany. Nonetheless, if the Qing Dynasty had transitioned into a semi-democratic regime, the situation for Sun Yat-Sen, a nationalist with some socialist tendencies, may have been worse. This is because people in new democracies are not always loyal to that democracy, and a collapse of the regime soon after democratizing could be blamed on democratic ideals.
In this alternate history, Gong oversees the modernization of China from 1875 to 1887, until the Guangxu Emperor is old enough to rule. By 1890, China's military is fully modernized and more centralized. Following the Sino-Japanese War, in which China loses Korea but keeps Formosa, the Guangxu Emperor proposes to reform the empire into a constitutional monarchy with little to no resistance.
In reality, the Qing Dynasty ended in 1911 with the Xinhai Revolution, which resulted in the abdication of the Xuantong Emperor and the establishment of the Republic of China. However, in this alternate history, the Qing Dynasty successfully reforms into a constitutional monarchy, potentially lasting until the present day or collapsing later than it did in reality.
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Frequently asked questions
The Qing Dynasty was a Chinese empire founded by the Manchus, a sedentary farming people descended from the Jurchens.
The Qing government was established as an absolute monarchy. However, by the early 20th century, the Qing court began to move towards a constitutional monarchy, with the establishment of government bodies and a parliamentary election to prepare for a constitutional government.
The Qing Empire faced several challenges to its rule in the 19th century, including foreign incursions into Chinese territory, such as the two Opium Wars against Western powers led by Great Britain, and the Sino-Japanese War (1894-95). These conflicts resulted in significant losses of territory and suzerainty for Imperial China.
The Xinhai Revolution, which began with the Wuchang Uprising in October 1911, led to the abdication of the Xuantong Emperor and the end of the Qing Dynasty in February 1912. The revolution established the Republic of China, replacing the imperial system with a republican government.
If the Qing Dynasty had successfully reformed into a constitutional monarchy, it might have delayed the rise of Mao and the spread of communism in China. However, it is speculated that a constitutional monarchy in post-Qing China would have eventually devolved into a military dictatorship due to the lack of institutional bureaucracy and the entrenched feudalistic mindset of the Chinese elites.
