Omar Bennett
The size of Kamala Harris' rallies has been a topic of discussion and speculation during her political career. As a vice presidential and presidential candidate, Harris has drawn large crowds to her rallies, with attendance numbers varying across different venues and states. Factors such as venue location, capacity, and weather can influence crowd size, and estimates may differ between campaigns, news media, and independent observers. Harris' rallies have been described as exuberant and enthusiastic, with a notable digital presence and savvy use of media strategies. Comparisons have been made with other candidates, such as Donald Trump and Joe Biden, in terms of crowd sizes and the impact on electoral success. The significance of rally attendance in the broader context of political campaigns and elections is a matter of ongoing analysis and debate.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Average Crowd Size | 1,300 |
| Largest Crowd Size | "Thousands" |
| Notable Rallies | Packed an 8,000-capacity arena in Atlanta |
| 14,000 supporters in Philadelphia with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz | |
| 7,500 people at Bojangles Coliseum in Charlotte | |
| 17,000 people at Greensboro Coliseum in Greensboro | |
| Bigger crowd than Donald Trump in Pennsylvania | |
| Bigger crowd than Donald Trump in Arizona | |
| Bigger crowd than Donald Trump in Colorado |
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What You'll Learn
Kamala Harris's rallies compared to Donald Trump's
Crowd sizes at political rallies are often a topic of scrutiny and debate, with many factors influencing the number of attendees, such as venue location, capacity, and weather. While there is no linear relationship between crowd size and a candidate's election probability, it remains a significant aspect of political campaigns.
Kamala Harris, the current Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate, has been attracting large crowds to her rallies. In late July 2024, she officially became the Democratic Party's nominee for president and has since appeared at several campaign rallies. Harris' campaign events have been well-attended, with her team providing accurate estimates of crowd sizes, which is a contrast to her competitors.
One notable instance was her rally at the Ellipse, just south of the White House in Washington, D.C., on October 29, 2024. The Harris campaign reported that over 75,000 people attended, surpassing her previous record set in Houston, Texas, which included an appearance by Beyoncé. This rally was particularly significant as it took place at the same location where former President Donald Trump had delivered his "Save America" speech before the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol.
Comparatively, Donald Trump, the former president and current Republican presidential candidate, has also been holding rallies across the country. In 2024, the Crowd Counting Consortium (CCC) recorded 37 of his rallies and has provided crowd size information for 28 of them. Across these 28 rallies, the average crowd size was approximately 5,600 attendees. This number is similar to the averages in 2023 (4,600) and 2022 (5,200) but significantly lower than the average of nearly 15,000 in 2021. Trump has a reputation for frequently exaggerating his rally crowd sizes, and as a result, estimates from news media, law enforcement, and other observers are often relied upon.
A notable comparison between Harris and Trump's rallies occurred in Philadelphia in 2024. Harris' event at Temple University's Liacouras Center, which seats 10,000 people, appeared to be filled to capacity. In contrast, photos from Trump's rally at the same venue in June 2024 showed empty seats, particularly in the top tier of the stadium. This visual comparison sparked discussions on social media and among political strategists, highlighting the apparent difference in attendance between the two candidates' rallies.
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The impact of venue location and capacity
The capacity of the venues also played a role in the perceived success of the rallies. For example, Harris's rally in Charlotte, North Carolina, at the Bojangles Coliseum, was reported to have drawn a big crowd, with the coliseum almost full and around 7,500 people in attendance. This was a notable achievement, as it was the biggest Democratic rally in Charlotte since Barack Obama's campaign in 2008. Similarly, in Erie, Pennsylvania, Harris's rally at the Erie Insurance Arena was reported to have a larger crowd than a concurrent Donald Trump town hall event, with a reported capacity of 5,400.
However, it is important to note that crowd sizes can be difficult to estimate accurately, and they may be exaggerated or artificially inflated. For instance, Trump has been known to exaggerate the size of his crowds, while the Harris campaign's estimates have generally aligned with observations by news outlets and eyewitnesses. Additionally, factors such as weather and the popularity of the candidate can also influence crowd sizes.
In conclusion, the venue location and capacity play a crucial role in the success and impact of Kamala Harris's rallies. Strategic choices in location can help target specific states, while the capacity of the chosen venues can influence the perceived enthusiasm and support for her campaign.
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The accuracy of crowd-size estimates
Estimating crowd size is a tricky business, and a number of factors can influence the accuracy of the estimates. The Crowd Counting Consortium (CCC), a joint project of Harvard Kennedy School and the University of Connecticut, has been tracking crowd sizes at political rallies since 2017. Their methodology takes into account various factors such as venue capacity, information from fire marshals and law enforcement, and reports from journalists at the scene. They also consider self-reports from the campaigns, but only if they are in line with other estimates. The CCC provides both the highest and lowest estimates and then averages them out to get a conservative idea of the crowd size.
Kamala Harris's rallies have averaged about 13,400 spectators per event, according to the CCC's analysis. This is significantly higher than the average crowd size at rallies for her opponent, Donald Trump, which has been estimated at around 5,600. Harris's campaign team has also provided their own estimates of crowd sizes, which have generally aligned with observations made by news outlets and other eyewitnesses.
However, it's important to remember that average crowd size is not necessarily indicative of a candidate's popularity. There are many factors that can influence crowd size, such as venue location and capacity, and even the weather. For instance, Trump has reportedly stopped holding large outdoor rallies for safety reasons, which could contribute to smaller crowd sizes.
That being said, large rallies can still be indicative of momentum and enthusiasm for a candidate. In the lead-up to the 2024 election, Harris's rallies were described as "so big and so enthusiastic" by her chief of staff, Voles. This assessment seemed to be confirmed by the high turnout at Harris's closing arguments at the Ellipse in Washington, DC, which her campaign reported as having 75,000 attendees, though other estimates placed the number at 40,000.
Overall, while estimating crowd size can be challenging, it is clear that Kamala Harris's rallies have drawn significant numbers and have been an important part of her campaign for the presidency.
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The political weight of crowd sizes
Crowd sizes at political rallies are often scrutinised and debated, with many believing they carry significant political weight. While the relationship between crowd size and election success is not linear, it is clear that large crowds can be a source of momentum and enthusiasm for a campaign. This was evident in the 2024 presidential race, where Vice President Kamala Harris' rallies drew attention for their size and exuberance.
Kamala Harris' rallies, particularly in key battleground states, were notable for their ability to generate enthusiasm and a sense of momentum. In North Carolina, a state considered a toss-up in the election, Harris' rally at Bojangles Coliseum in Charlotte drew a big crowd, with the venue almost full and an estimated attendance of 7,500 people. This was the biggest Democratic rally in Charlotte since Barack Obama's campaign in 2008, and it sparked excitement among local Democrats. The Harris campaign also held a rally in Greensboro, North Carolina, which attracted 17,000 attendees.
In another crucial swing state, Pennsylvania, Harris' rally at the Erie Insurance Arena drew a larger crowd than a concurrent event held by former President Donald Trump. While Trump's town hall took place in a smaller venue, photos and estimates indicated a higher attendance at Harris' event. This was a notable shift, as Trump had previously been known for his well-attended rallies, with average crowd sizes of around 5,000 to 15,000 people in 2020 and 2023. However, Trump has a reputation for exaggerating crowd sizes, and his estimates are often higher than those provided by news media and other observers.
The Harris campaign's ability to draw large crowds became a weapon against Trump, who took any mention of her crowd sizes as a personal affront. The size and enthusiasm of Harris' rallies, particularly when compared to Trump's, became a source of frustration for him. The Harris campaign's digital savvy also played a role in leveraging these public displays of support to drive fundraising and earned media. The large crowds were a visible sign of momentum and enthusiasm for the Harris campaign, which can be an important factor in a political race, even if it doesn't directly translate to electoral success.
While crowd sizes can be influenced by various factors such as venue location, capacity, and weather, they remain a topic of interest and scrutiny in political campaigns. The size and enthusiasm of Kamala Harris' rallies in the 2024 election generated a sense of momentum and excitement, even if they ultimately did not lead to her victory.
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The importance of swing states
While Kamala Harris's rallies have not been as large as those of her predecessor Joe Biden, she has been drawing larger crowds than her opponent, Donald Trump. For instance, Harris's rally at the Erie Insurance Arena in Pennsylvania attracted a larger crowd than Trump's town hall event in the state.
Now, onto the importance of swing states.
Swing states, also known as battleground or toss-up states, are states that could be won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate in a statewide election. They are usually targeted by both major-party campaigns, especially in competitive elections. In the United States, voters do not directly choose their president but instead select members of the Electoral College, who then cast their votes based on how the majority of voters in their state voted. The number of electors each state gets is based on its population. For instance, Florida, with its large population, determines 29 electoral votes, which is the most after California and Texas.
Swing states are important because they can be decisive in a presidential election. Florida, for example, has been a reliable bellwether of overall election results, with the winner in the state going on to win the presidency in every race since 1964. Similarly, Nevada and Ohio have predicted the overall election winner eight times in the past nine elections. Since 2000, five states—Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia—have matched the eventual election winner in all but one election.
Due to their potential to go either "blue" or "red", political parties often spend a disproportionate amount of time and resources campaigning in swing states. The Electoral College system further encourages campaigners to focus their efforts on courting voters in these states, as most states use a winner-takes-all arrangement where the candidate with the most votes receives all of the state's electoral votes. This means that a handful of swing states can have an outsized influence on the outcome of a presidential election.
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Frequently asked questions
Kamala Harris' rally at the Erie Insurance Arena in Pennsylvania was attended by 5,400 people.
Kamala Harris' rally at the Bojangles Coliseum in Charlotte, North Carolina, was attended by 7,500 people.
Yes, Kamala Harris' rallies in 2024 had a large turnout, with one source describing the rallies as "big and enthusiastic".
Yes, Kamala Harris' rallies in 2024 had a bigger turnout than Donald Trump's. However, it is important to note that Trump had stopped holding large outdoor rallies for safety reasons.
Yes, Kamala Harris' rallies had a bigger turnout than Joe Biden's rallies, which were described as "relatively small".
