Isabella Carter
The “right-to-carry” (RTC) or “constitutional carry” laws in the US have sparked debates about their impact on crime rates. While some argue that RTC reduces crime by empowering law-abiding citizens to protect themselves, others contend that more guns lead to more crime and violence. The empirical evidence on this topic is inconclusive, with studies yielding conflicting results. Some research suggests that RTC increases violent crime, firearm-related crimes, and homicides, while others find negligible effects or even a decrease in crime rates. The complexity of the issue is further compounded by varying state-level regulations, data limitations, and the dynamic nature of crime trends. As a result, the link between RTC laws and crime rates remains uncertain, prompting ongoing research and discussions to better understand the consequences of these laws.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Does constitutional carry increase crime? | There is no clear consensus on whether constitutional carry increases crime. Some studies suggest that right-to-carry laws can reduce violent crime, while others find the effects to be negligible or even leading to an increase in violent crime. |
| Shall-issue concealed-carry laws | There is evidence to suggest that these laws may increase total homicides, firearm homicides, and violent crime. However, the effects on total homicides are inconclusive. |
| May-issue laws | These more restrictive laws have been found to significantly increase intimate partner total homicides compared to shall-issue laws. |
| Right-to-carry (RTC) | There is disagreement among researchers about the impact of RTC on crime rates. Some studies suggest it increases violent crime, while others find it has little effect or may even decrease crime. |
| Permitless carry laws | In some states, no permit is required for open or concealed carry. However, restrictions based on age and criminal history may still apply. |
| Impact on crime rates | The presence of more guns may lead to a decrease in crime according to the "more guns, less crime" hypothesis, which suggests that it empowers law-abiding citizens to protect themselves. |
| Impact on crime rates | The "more guns, more crime" theory suggests that the presence of more guns, even in the hands of law-abiding citizens, can escalate conflicts and increase violent crime. |
| Firearm carrying and violent crime | Research suggests that firearm carrying increases levels of violent crime and is associated with higher rates of suicide, homicide, unintentional firearm deaths, and shootings by police. |
| Safe storage practices | Properly storing firearms unloaded and locked can reduce the risk of accidents, suicides, and unauthorized use, making homes safer and preventing firearms from falling into the wrong hands. |
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What You'll Learn
Does constitutional carry increase violent crime?
The relationship between constitutional carry laws and violent crime has been the subject of extensive research and debate. Some studies suggest that right-to-carry laws can increase violent crime, including firearm-related crimes such as robberies, gun thefts, and homicides. For example, a 2017 Stanford Report by John Donohue found that states with right-to-carry laws experienced 13-15% higher rates of violent crime over a ten-year period compared to states without those laws. Additionally, a 2009 study by Roberts found that less restrictive may-issue laws increased intimate partner total homicides by 71% compared to shall-issue laws.
On the other hand, other studies suggest that right-to-carry laws have no significant impact on violent crime rates or that they may even reduce violent crime. For instance, a 2023 analysis by the Manhattan Institute found that allowing citizens to carry concealed weapons deters violent crimes without increasing accidental deaths. Their research suggested that if states without right-to-carry provisions had adopted them in 1992, approximately 1,500 murders, 4,000 rapes, 11,000 robberies, and 60,000 aggravated assaults could have been avoided annually.
The conflicting findings in the research highlight the complexity of the issue and the challenges in establishing a definitive link between constitutional carry laws and violent crime rates. Some factors contributing to these discrepancies include differences in statistical methods, data sources, and model specifications. For example, the inclusion or exclusion of specific years or covariates can significantly impact the results.
It is worth noting that the impact of constitutional carry laws may vary across different states and communities. For instance, ten of the sixteen states that passed constitutional carry legislation before 2022 experienced a decline in violent crime rates, while Alaska saw an increase. Additionally, states like Vermont and Wyoming, which have never required permits for concealed carry, consistently have low violent crime rates.
While the evidence is inconclusive, the debate around constitutional carry laws remains crucial in shaping gun control policies and public safety initiatives. Proponents of constitutional carry laws argue that they empower law-abiding citizens to protect themselves and their families, while opponents raise concerns about the potential impact on violent crime and the challenges it poses for law enforcement.
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Does constitutional carry increase homicides?
The relationship between constitutional carry laws and homicide rates is complex and subject to ongoing debate. Some studies suggest that constitutional carry laws, also known as "permitless carry" or "right-to-carry" (RTC) laws, may increase total homicides, firearm homicides, and violent crime. However, the evidence is inconclusive, and there are conflicting findings across various research methodologies.
Proponents of constitutional carry laws argue that allowing law-abiding citizens to arm themselves can act as a deterrent against crime, reducing interpersonal crimes. This perspective is often summarized as the "more guns, less crime" hypothesis. On the other hand, opponents of these laws argue that the presence of guns, even carried by those without serious criminal records, tends to escalate conflicts and lead to higher rates of firearm-related injuries or deaths. This counterargument is known as the “more guns, more crime” theory.
Several studies have been conducted to examine the impact of constitutional carry laws on homicide rates. For example, Roberts (2009) analyzed the effect of shall-issue laws on intimate partner homicide rates using FBI data from 1985 to 2004. The study found that restrictive may-issue laws, which give authorities discretion to deny permits, increased intimate partner total homicides by 71% compared to shall-issue laws. However, the effects on intimate partner firearm homicides were uncertain.
Another study by Knopov et al. (2019) found that shall-issue laws were associated with a significant increase in homicide rates for the total population, with no evidence of racial differences. In contrast, permitless-carry laws were linked to suggestive reductions in homicide rates. Shi and Lee (2018) used a panel data model to evaluate the impact of these laws on crime rates from 1977 to 2012 and found uncertain effects on overall violent crime.
Additionally, the RAND Corporation reviewed the literature and concluded that shall-issue concealed-carry laws have uncertain effects on total homicides, firearm homicides, robberies, assaults, and rapes. They found limited evidence that RTC increases violent crime in aggregate, but the effects on specific types of crimes remain inconclusive.
It is worth noting that the United States stands as an outlier among high-income countries in terms of firearm violence. The country has the highest firearm ownership and death rates, with a firearm homicide rate nearly 25 times higher than other high-income nations. The debate around constitutional carry laws is part of a broader discussion on firearm regulation and public safety.
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Does constitutional carry increase firearm theft?
The relationship between constitutional carry laws and firearm theft is a complex issue that has been the subject of much debate and research. Some argue that allowing almost anyone to carry a concealed handgun in public increases violent crime, including firearm robberies and gun thefts. On the other hand, gun rights advocates and certain research studies claim that carry laws do not increase gun theft.
The Argument for Increased Firearm Theft
A fact sheet by the Center for American Progress asserts that right-to-carry laws make it easier for individuals to carry concealed handguns in public, which leads to an increase in violent crimes, including firearm robberies, gun thefts, workplace homicides, and mass shootings. This view is supported by law enforcement leaders who oppose the weakening of concealed carry requirements, as it makes their job more difficult and dangerous. The fact sheet further mentions scientific research that consistently shows a correlation between the removal of concealed carry permitting systems and higher rates of gun homicides and violent crime.
A study by researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health found a significant increase in the rate of firearm assaults in states that relaxed conceal carry permit restrictions. The study examined the impact of transitioning from more restrictive to less restrictive laws and concluded that less restrictive measures were associated with a higher rate of assaults with firearms.
The Argument Against Increased Firearm Theft
Gun rights organizations, such as the National Rifle Association (NRA), and researchers like Professor Carl Moody and Dr. John Lott of the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC), disagree with the notion that carry laws increase gun theft. They argue that CCW permit holders are unlikely to be violent criminals and tend to be law-abiding citizens. Moody and Lott's research found no evidence that CCW laws are associated with significant increases in gun theft. They concluded that stolen guns are independent of CCW permits or permitless carrying.
Additionally, the Buckeye Firearms Association (BFA) and the Center for American Progress both assert that carry laws do not increase gun theft and that CCW permittees are not the ones who threaten public safety or produce more crime. The Buckeye Firearms Association also highlights the Lott-Moody paper, which found that CCW permit holders are convicted of firearms-related violations at a much lower rate than police officers.
While there are differing opinions and research studies on the impact of constitutional carry laws on firearm theft, it is clear that this issue is a highly contested topic. Those in favor of stricter gun control argue that easing restrictions leads to more gun-related crimes, including theft. On the other hand, gun rights advocates and certain researchers claim that carry laws do not contribute to increased gun theft and that lawful carriers are not the primary source of stolen guns. As constitutional carry laws continue to evolve and gain prominence, further research and analysis are needed to fully understand their impact on firearm theft and public safety.
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Does constitutional carry increase aggressive behaviour?
Constitutional carry, or permitless carry, is the term used when a state does not prohibit individuals who can legally possess a firearm from carrying handguns. In 2022, four states—Alabama, Ohio, Indiana, and Georgia—passed constitutional carry laws, and as of 2025, there are now 29 states that have adopted such laws. Over the past two decades, more than 50% of U.S. states have passed laws allowing for constitutional carry.
The impact of constitutional carry laws on aggressive behaviour and crime rates is a highly debated topic. Some sources suggest that shall-issue concealed-carry laws may increase total homicides, firearm homicides, and violent crime. However, the evidence is inconclusive, and there are conflicting findings among researchers. For example, a study by Lott and Mustard (1997) concluded that states implementing shall-issue laws saw significant decreases in rates of violent crime, murder, rape, and assault, supporting the "more guns, less crime" theory. On the other hand, reviews by Hahn et al. (2005) and the National Research Council (2004) found insufficient evidence to determine the effect of such laws on violent crime.
The complexity of the issue is due to several factors. Firstly, the empirical results are sensitive to minor changes in model specifications. Secondly, the results lack robustness when including more recent years of data, as there were many more law changes during this period. Thirdly, the statistical imprecision of the results makes it challenging to draw definitive conclusions. Additionally, it is important to consider that even with constitutional carry laws in place, individuals are still accountable for their actions and every round discharged from their firearms.
While some argue that constitutional carry may increase aggressive behaviour, others suggest that legal gun carriers are unlikely to commit crimes themselves. It is hypothesized that the policy's impact on crime rates may be negligible, as any increase in aggressive behaviour among legal gun carriers may be offset by a decrease in their likelihood of becoming crime victims. Furthermore, a significant portion of violent crimes involves young criminals who are not legally allowed to carry firearms, regardless of permit requirements.
In conclusion, the available evidence does not provide a clear causal link between the passage of right-to-carry laws and aggressive behaviour or crime rates. Further research and analytical approaches are needed to better understand the complex relationship between constitutional carry laws and their potential impact on society.
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Does constitutional carry increase the risk of suicide?
In April 2022, Georgia Governor Brian Kemp signed a law called "Constitution Carry" that allows people to carry handguns without a license. This has raised concerns about an increase in suicides in the state.
Several studies have found a positive correlation between access to firearms and suicide rates. According to a study published in the New England Journal of Medicine, men who own handguns are eight times more likely to die by suicide, while women are more than 35 times more likely to commit suicide if they own a handgun. Additionally, states with more lenient gun laws and higher gun ownership rates tend to have higher suicide rates.
The new legislation in Georgia is expected to increase the number of guns in the state, which could lead to a higher risk of suicide, especially among adolescents. It is argued that girls will have easier access to lethal means of suicide, such as guns, instead of less effective methods like pills.
The COVID-19 pandemic has also increased the risk of suicide due to social isolation and heightened stress, anxiety, and depression. Mental health professionals often ask about access to guns during initial sessions, especially when there are signs of depression.
While the "Constitution Carry" law aims to empower individuals to protect themselves, it is important to consider the potential impact on suicide rates and take proactive measures to address mental health concerns and promote safe gun ownership practices.
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Frequently asked questions
Constitutional carry means that the state’s law does not prohibit citizens who can legally possess a firearm from carrying handguns, either openly or in a concealed manner, and thus no state permit is required.
There is no clear consensus on whether constitutional carry increases crime. Some studies find that right-to-carry laws reduce violent crime, while others find that the effects are negligible, and still, others find that such laws increase violent crime.
The "more guns, less crime" hypothesis suggests that right-to-carry laws empower law-abiding citizens to arm themselves to prevent victimization. This increases the chance that criminals will encounter armed victims, thus discouraging them from committing crimes, especially interpersonal crimes.
The "more guns, more crime" theory holds that the presence of guns, even carried by those without serious criminal records, tends to make things worse. Research has found that even the mere presence of a firearm increases aggressive thoughts and actions and can escalate minor arguments and confrontations.
A study by Lott and Mustard (1997) concluded that states implementing shall-issue laws saw significant decreases in rates of violent crime, murder, rape, and assault. On the other hand, a study by Roberts (2009) found that more restrictive may-issue laws significantly increased intimate partner total homicides compared with shall-issue laws.
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