Eleanor Finch
On December 7, 1941, Japan attacked the US Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor, decimating the fleet and killing thousands. The attack was a surprise to the Americans, who were unaware of the impending assault despite several tactical warnings. The question of whether diplomacy could have prevented the attack on Pearl Harbor is a complex one. In the lead-up to the attack, diplomatic relations between the United States and Japan were strained due to competing interests in the Pacific region. The United States had imposed an embargo on Japan and frozen its assets, restricting the flow of military supplies and oil to Japan. However, most historians agree that the United States did not intentionally provoke the attack and that President Roosevelt tried to maintain good relations with Japan and avoid war in 1941.
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What You'll Learn
US-Japan diplomatic talks failed
The US-Japan diplomatic talks failed primarily due to the two nations' conflicting interests and demands. While the United States demanded that Japan immediately withdraw its troops from China and Indochina, Japan refused to cede any of its newly acquired territories. The US had been slowly tightening restrictions on Japan, and in January 1940, Japan abrogated the existing treaty of commerce with the US. This allowed the Roosevelt Administration to restrict the flow of military supplies into Japan and use it as leverage to force Japan to halt its aggression in China.
In response to Japan's occupation of French Indochina in 1941, the US froze all Japanese assets in the states, preventing Japan from purchasing oil. Losing access to 94% of its oil supply, Japan was unwilling to submit to US demands and planned to take the oil needed by force. The US extended credits to the Chinese government for the purchase of war supplies, further straining relations with Japan.
Despite the mounting tensions, President Franklin D. Roosevelt attempted to maintain good relations with Japan and avoid war. In a cabinet meeting on November 7, 1941, Roosevelt emphasized the importance of maintaining positive relations with Japanese negotiators and avoiding any actions that could lead to a crisis. However, Japan remained steadfast in its refusal to concede, and the US continued to increase aid to China and move towards an embargo on militarily useful items with Japan.
On November 26, 1941, as US officials presented Japan with a 10-point statement reiterating their demands, the Japanese Imperial Navy ordered an armada of 414 planes aboard six aircraft carriers to set sail. The flotilla aimed to destroy the US Pacific Fleet base at Pearl Harbor. Thus, the failure of the US-Japan diplomatic talks can be attributed to both nations' unwavering positions and the escalating tensions that ultimately led to the attack on Pearl Harbor.
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US sanctions on Japan
The United States had imposed sanctions on Japan in the summer of 1941, restricting the flow of vital resources to the country. The US was the main supplier of oil, steel, iron, and other commodities needed by the Japanese military. In January 1940, Japan abrogated the existing treaty of commerce with the US, which allowed the Roosevelt Administration to restrict the flow of military supplies into Japan and use this as leverage to force Japan to halt its aggression in China. The US combined this strategy with increasing aid to China through larger credits and the Lend-Lease program.
The sanctions and embargoes placed significant pressure on Japan, and they felt compelled to take action. Japan's final proposal, delivered on November 20, 1941, offered to withdraw from southern Indochina and refrain from attacks in Southeast Asia if the US, UK, and Netherlands lifted sanctions and ceased aid to China. However, the US counterproposal, known as the Hull note, demanded Japan's unconditional evacuation from China and the conclusion of non-aggression pacts with Pacific powers.
Japan saw the US counterproposal as a threat to its expansionist ambitions and its influence in the Pacific. On November 26, 1941, as US officials presented their 10-point statement, Japan ordered an armada of planes and aircraft carriers to set sail for Pearl Harbor. The attack on Pearl Harbor was intended as a pre-emptive strike to prevent the US Pacific Fleet from interfering with Japan's planned actions in Southeast Asia.
The attack on Pearl Harbor, which took place on December 7, 1941, was a surprise assault that decimated the US Pacific Fleet. The Japanese immediately followed this attack with assaults on US and British bases in the Philippines, Guam, Midway Island, Wake Island, Malaya, and Hong Kong. Within days, Japan had established itself as the dominant power in the Pacific. The attack on Pearl Harbor stunned Americans and marked the entry of the United States into World War II.
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US military intelligence failures
The surprise attack on Pearl Harbor by Japan on December 7, 1941, was a seminal event in US history and a massive failure of US military intelligence. The attack destroyed the US Pacific Fleet and pushed the US into World War II. There were several intelligence warnings about the attack, but they were not heeded, and there was no central organization to bring all the pieces of intelligence together.
One of the main US military intelligence failures was the loss of the location of Japanese carriers after November 17, 1941. Admiral Husband E. Kimmel, commander of the Pacific Fleet, did not know the location of the Japanese carriers and, for security reasons, did not inform Lt. Gen. Walter C. Short, who commanded Army forces in Hawaii, including anti-aircraft battalions guarding Pearl Harbor. When Washington issued "War Warning" messages to Short and Kimmel at the end of November, Short replied that he was only preparing for internal revolt, not an external attack. Washington failed to challenge his readiness, and as a result, anti-aircraft guns were not deployed, and no fighters were ready to engage the Japanese attack.
Another critical factor governing American readiness in Hawaii was the division of command between Short and Kimmel, with neither holding overall command. This lack of unity of command contributed to the failure to prepare for the incoming Japanese attack.
Additionally, there were multiple false alarms about Japan preparing to attack Pearl Harbor, and conflicting reports about Japan's intentions. Ambassador Joseph Grew had sent messages to Washington warning about a possible war between Japan and the United States and even speculated that Japan might target Pearl Harbor. However, these warnings were surrounded by noise, deception, and other information that led analysts astray and caused them to look in the wrong places.
The attack on Pearl Harbor eventually led to the creation of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), with the primary mission of preventing another Pearl Harbor and stopping strategic surprises. The intelligence failures at Pearl Harbor highlighted the need for better coordination and systematic sharing of intelligence across the US government.
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Tactical warnings were missed
On December 7, 1941, Japan staged a surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, decimating the US Pacific Fleet. The attack was a significant event that pushed the US into World War II. While the attack was a surprise, there were tactical warnings that, if heeded, could have reduced the damage and casualties.
The first warning was the detection of the massive first wave about 40 minutes before the first bombs fell. This should have triggered a full alarm at least 20 minutes before the attack. Even with the less-prepared situation that morning in Pearl Harbor, the defenders could have been alert and ready. The second warning was a message from Ward, describing her encounter with a submarine about five minutes after the report of a massive radar contact. This should have reinforced the urgency of the reaction and could have started a full alert through the naval command chain. The third warning was the unity of command, which was conspicuously violated that morning. Lt. Gen. Walter C. Short commanded Army forces in Hawaii, including anti-aircraft battalions guarding Pearl Harbor. However, he did not believe an external attack was imminent and did not deploy the anti-aircraft guns or have their ammunition ready.
These tactical warnings, if properly acted upon, could have reduced the damage and casualties at Pearl Harbor. However, it is important to note that the US military intelligence also failed to accurately measure Japanese capabilities, and the Americans did not believe that Japanese forces could mount a successful attack on US bases in Hawaii. Additionally, Roosevelt tried to avoid a war with Japan throughout 1941, fearing that it would limit America’s aid to Britain and lengthen the struggle against Germany. Diplomatic talks continued between the US and Japan, but neither side budged.
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Japan's need for natural resources
Japan's industrialisation in the late 19th and early 20th centuries was heavily dependent on natural resources. The country's industrialisation process imitated that of Western countries, which had established colonies in Asia and the Pacific to secure natural resources and markets for their goods. Japan's initial industrialisation relied on natural resources, with earnings from mining firms playing a critical role in capitalising their first manufacturing, financial, and services firms.
Japan's quest for power and expansion in East Asia was influenced by various factors, including economic considerations. The country had emerged from a period of depression by the mid-1930s, partly due to government deficits used to expand heavy industry and the military. The Japanese military faced a tactical challenge as certain critical raw materials, especially oil and rubber, were not available within their sphere of influence. Instead, Japan relied on the United States for oil and British Malaya for rubber, the very nations trying to restrict Japan's expansion.
The United States, as the main supplier of oil, steel, and iron to Japan, began to tighten restrictions on Japan by extending credits to the Chinese government for the purchase of war supplies. In January 1940, Japan abrogated the existing treaty of commerce with the United States, allowing the Roosevelt Administration to restrict the flow of military supplies into Japan and use it as leverage to force Japan to halt its aggression in China. This led to increasing aid to China through the Lend-Lease program and a gradual move towards an embargo on militarily useful items with Japan.
The Japanese navy pressed for a "southern" strategy, targeting Dutch Indonesia for its oil and British Malaya for rubber, which the army agreed to. Japan's expansion into Manchuria, China, and Indochina further strained its relationship with the United States, which demanded the immediate withdrawal of Japanese troops from these regions. The need for natural resources, particularly oil and rubber, was a significant factor in Japan's military strategy and expansionist policies in the lead-up to the attack on Pearl Harbor.
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Frequently asked questions
Japan had spent the early 20th century modernizing its economy and military and wanted to build an empire similar to that of Great Britain and the United States. However, Japan lacked the natural resources to do so, with all but 6% of its oil supply being imported. After occupying French Indochina in 1941, the US froze all Japanese assets in the States, preventing Japan from purchasing oil. Losing 94% of its oil supply, Japan planned to take the oil needed by force.
The attack on Pearl Harbor decimated the US Pacific Fleet and killed thousands. It also pushed the US to commit to the Allied cause in World War II. Days after the attack, Germany and Italy declared war on the US, pulling America into a global war.
While diplomatic talks continued between the US and Japan, neither side was willing to compromise. Japan refused to cede any of its newly acquired territory, while the US insisted that Japan immediately withdraw its troops from China and Indochina. Most historians agree that President Roosevelt tried to avoid a war with Japan throughout 1941, fearing that it would limit America's aid to Britain and lengthen the struggle against Germany. However, the US did not believe that Japanese forces could mount a successful attack on US bases in Hawaii, and so the attack came as a surprise.
