Omar Bennett
North Korea's diplomatic relations with the United States have been a complex issue for decades, with the two nations often engaging in a cycle of provocations and negotiations. Despite some efforts and agreements towards disarmament and denuclearization, North Korea continues to develop its nuclear capabilities and has conducted multiple tests, raising concerns about the potential for conflict on the Korean Peninsula. The unpredictable nature of negotiations, including the unconventional diplomacy of the Trump era, has led to a stalemate in recent years, with North Korea seemingly uninterested in diplomacy and focused on strengthening its military capabilities. As of 2024, there are doubts about the resumption of US-North Korea talks, and the country's relationship with Russia further complicates diplomatic efforts.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Current diplomatic relations with North Korea | Poor |
| North Korea's diplomatic relations with other countries | Russia, Belarus, and Sudan |
| North Korea's primary national enemy | South Korea |
| North Korea's nuclear weapons tests | 6 tests between 2006 and 2017 |
| North Korea's nuclear counterattack capabilities | Strategic cruise missiles |
| North Korea's uranium program | Enriched uranium stockpile |
| North Korea's stance on diplomacy | Unlikely unless the situation with Russia changes |
| U.S. nuclear weapons program | B-1B Lancer bombers and B-2 Spirit bombers |
| U.S. military presence in South Korea | 28,500 troops, 90 Patriot missiles, and 5 military bases |
| U.S. public opinion on diplomatic relations with North Korea | 31% approval of Trump's diplomatic overtures |
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What You'll Learn
The US's diplomatic history with North Korea
The United States and North Korea have had a complex diplomatic history, marked by periods of tension and occasional attempts at negotiation. Since the Korean War, the United States has maintained a strong military presence in South Korea, with thousands of troops, missiles, and military bases in the region. This presence has often been a source of tension between the two countries.
In 1988, during the Reagan administration, a modest initiative allowed unofficial non-governmental visits by North Koreans to the United States and eased financial regulations. In 1991, the two Koreas signed a "Basic Agreement," pledging reconciliation and cooperation, and agreeing to denuclearization. However, the bilateral inspection mechanism envisioned by the agreement did not materialize, and North Korea continued to develop its nuclear program, conducting six nuclear tests between 2006 and 2017.
The Clinton administration's engagement with North Korea, including high-level diplomatic meetings and inspections of nuclear facilities, was politically controversial. Despite these efforts, the United States and North Korea failed to normalize diplomatic and economic relations, and military tensions persisted.
During the Trump administration, there were unconventional diplomatic approaches, including direct access to Kim Jong Un. While this created new opportunities, it ultimately did not lead to tangible results. Trump's strongman tactics, combined with South Korean President Moon's goodwill, initially raised expectations for swift and positive changes. However, North Korea's unilateral gestures in 2018 did not lead to a breakthrough, and negotiations stalled.
The Biden administration has faced challenges in its diplomatic efforts, including the task of formulating a coherent strategy that addresses North Korea's nuclear pursuits and human rights record. While some analysts argue that negotiating with North Korea is futile, others believe that diplomacy can help slow technical advances in their nuclear arsenal and reduce the risk of conflict. The Biden administration has emphasized close consultation with allies in the region, South Korea and Japan, and explored cooperation with China on denuclearization.
Currently, the United States does not have diplomatic relations with North Korea and relies on Sweden as its protecting power in the country. Despite the challenges and complexities, diplomacy remains a central theme in addressing the issues between the two nations.
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The potential for a military solution
The country's nuclear program has become entirely indigenous, and its missiles are increasingly mobile and challenging to target. Airstrikes, cyber-attacks, and commando raids could cause some damage, but the program could likely be repaired quickly. Additionally, the intelligence on North Korea's nuclear facilities, while good, is not perfect, and the country has hidden key facilities in the past.
The United States has a strong military presence in South Korea, with thousands of troops, advanced weaponry, and multiple military bases in the region. However, any military action against North Korea risks escalating into a catastrophic war, as North Korea has the capability to strike targets in South Korea and potentially even the continental United States. A military solution could also have severe consequences for the stability of the region and the global economy, particularly if China becomes involved.
Furthermore, North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un, has been assessed by US intelligence as a rational actor. While he has made provocative statements and conducted missile tests, he is unlikely to use nuclear weapons unless his regime is under an existential threat. This assessment suggests that a military solution could provoke a nuclear response from North Korea, leading to devastating consequences for all parties involved.
Therefore, while a military solution may be tempting for some, the potential consequences and challenges make it a risky and unattractive option. A more practical approach would focus on arms control, risk reduction, and deterrence, with a long-term strategy of promoting sustained change within North Korea through public diplomacy and strategic negotiations.
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The role of cyber sabotage
North Korea's cyber capabilities have evolved since 2009, with the country investing in infrastructure and capability upgrades. The country has carried out several cyberattacks on cryptocurrency platforms, with a United Nations (UN) Panel of Experts reporting that North Korea stole virtual assets worth US$3 billion through 58 cyberattacks between 2017 and 2023. This highlights the role of cyber operations in North Korea's statecraft, which includes cyber sabotage, cyber espionage, cyber heist, intelligence gathering, and IT theft.
The country's cyber strategy is marked by defiant behaviour, diverging from typical diplomatic norms and non-compliance with widely accepted international liberal norms and rules. This behaviour is also seen in its nuclear weapons development programme, which has been a global concern since the early 1990s. North Korea's cyber capabilities offer insights into the regime's views on the importance of the cyber domain in contemporary warfare.
The country's cyber campaigns have evolved to include Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attacks, Sony, WannaCry, and cryptocurrency theft. These cyber operations are used to counter international sanctions and generate resources for North Korea's economic and technological development. The country has also carried out ransomware campaigns against Healthcare and Public Health Sector (HPH) organizations and other critical infrastructure entities.
In conclusion, cyber sabotage plays a significant role in North Korea's diplomatic strategy. The country has invested in its cyber capabilities and has carried out numerous cyberattacks. While cyber sabotage can be used to gain strategic advantage and disrupt adversaries, it can also create challenges in diplomatic negotiations. The effectiveness of cyber sabotage as a tool in North Korea's diplomacy depends on various factors, including the country's ability to adapt and evolve its cyber capabilities and the responses of its adversaries.
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The impact of North Korea's relationship with China
China and North Korea have historically shared a close diplomatic relationship, with China sending troops to aid North Korea during the Korean War. In the 1970s, the two countries experienced growing solidarity, although tensions arose in the 1980s due to China's Open Door Policy, which North Korea viewed as a betrayal of communist principles. China has also expressed concern over North Korea's nuclear weapons program and has backed UN sanctions against it. Despite this, China and North Korea have maintained economic and security ties, including a mutual defense treaty.
In recent years, the relationship between China and North Korea has become strained due to North Korea's deepening ties with Russia and China's rivalry with the US. North Korea's recent defense pact with Russia has complicated China's strategy of balancing its relationships with the US and its allies in the region. Additionally, China has struggled to tame North Korea's nuclear ambitions, with Beijing calling for denuclearization while refusing to use its leverage to push North Korea in that direction.
Furthermore, the relationship between China and North Korea has implications for regional stability. China seeks to maintain stability on the Korean Peninsula, which has been challenged by North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons and its volatile relationship with South Korea. The complex dynamics between these two Asian nuclear powers can have far-reaching consequences for the region and beyond.
In conclusion, the impact of North Korea's relationship with China is multifaceted. China has been a key economic partner, diplomatic ally, and political influencer for North Korea. While the relationship has experienced periodic tensions, it remains crucial for both countries due to their shared history, geographic proximity, and ideological similarities. As North Korea continues to pursue its nuclear ambitions and navigate its relationships with other global powers, its ties with China will likely remain a significant factor in shaping the region's geopolitical landscape.
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The public opinion of diplomatic relations
Public opinion on diplomatic relations with North Korea varies depending on the country in question. North Korea has diplomatic relations with 160 states. However, the country's foreign relations have been dominated by its conflict with South Korea and its historical ties to the Soviet Union.
United States
Historically, the United States has had hostile relations with North Korea, with no formal diplomatic relations. Instead, they have an indirect diplomatic arrangement using neutral intermediaries, such as the Swedish Embassy in Pyongyang, which provides limited consular services to US citizens. The US has consistently resisted two-party talks with North Korea, and the Bush administration suggested regime change as a primary goal.
Despite this, the US public has historically favored diplomatic approaches over military ones. A 2020 YouGov poll found that only 31% of respondents approved of President Donald Trump's diplomatic overtures to North Korea. However, the same poll showed that support for US forces to defend South Korea had increased, with over half wanting to maintain US troop levels at nearly 30,000 soldiers.
The Biden administration has emphasized the importance of alliances and democratic values in its foreign policy approach, and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has stated that their policy towards North Korea is "aimed at solutions." Public diplomacy is seen as a critical tool to help foster conditions that could lead to the North Korean regime becoming more accountable to its people and voluntarily pursuing denuclearization.
South Korea
South Korea, which has been in a state of military confrontation with North Korea since the Korean War, established diplomatic relations with North Korea's traditional allies, the Soviet Union and the People's Republic of China, in the 1990s, straining relations.
China
China has had a complex relationship with North Korea, blocking UN resolutions threatening sanctions while also declaring a "year of China-DPRK friendship" in 2009. WikiLeaks revealed that Chinese officials referred to North Korea's nuclear program as "a threat to the whole world's security," indicating a complex public opinion within China regarding diplomatic relations with North Korea.
Other Countries
North Korea's relations with other countries have varied over time. During the Cold War, it only had diplomatic recognition from communist countries. It later established relations with developing countries and joined the Non-Aligned Movement. The 1983 Rangoon bombing, a failed assassination attempt on South Korean dictator Chun Doo-hwan in Burma, led many Third World countries to reconsider their ties.
In summary, public opinion on diplomatic relations with North Korea differs across countries. While North Korea has diplomatic ties with many states, its relations with the US, South Korea, China, and other nations have been complex and influenced by historical events, nuclear tensions, and human rights issues.
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Frequently asked questions
North Korea has conducted six tests of nuclear weapons between 2006 and 2017 and has developed long-range missiles capable of striking targets thousands of miles away. The country has also threatened to strike the United States and South Korea with nuclear weapons. The United States must break out of the 'false binary' approach to North Korea, where policies are selected between short-term vs. longer-term, and engagement vs. holding a tougher stance.
The United States should not accept North Korea as a nuclear weapons state. If the United States and its allies were to accept North Korea as a nuclear state, Kim Jong-un would perceive his strategy to be successful and would have no incentive to change.
In a 2020 YouGov poll, only 31% of respondents approved of President Donald Trump's diplomatic overtures to North Korea. However, support among the American public for US forces to defend South Korea has increased steadily, from 26% in 1990 to 62% in 2017.
The alternative to diplomacy is a military solution. However, this is not a viable option as the United States does not have the military wizardry needed to take out North Korea's nuclear weapons and missiles without causing massive casualties.
Diplomacy can improve the terms of an eventual deal. The United States should focus on public diplomacy that seeks to promote long-term, sustained change within North Korea. This includes providing diverse and truthful content and messaging to targeted audiences in North Korea to convince people to prefer and demand a different and freer country for themselves.
