Malcolm Rivera
In the 2024 US presidential election, Michigan was a crucial swing state with 15 electoral votes. Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump campaigned heavily in the state, with Harris visiting a Black church in Detroit and rallying at Michigan State University. Harris held a slight lead in the polls, but in a tight race, it was unclear who would win the state. Ultimately, Trump won Michigan, securing the state's 15 electoral votes and carrying five of the seven critical battleground states.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Kamala Harris's chances of winning Michigan | Harris was leading in Michigan in the days before the election |
| Harris had a 3-point lead over Trump according to a Detroit Free Press/EPIC-MRA poll | |
| Harris had a 6-point lead among the youngest voters in Michigan, aged 18-29 | |
| Harris was 1 point ahead according to FiveThirtyEight | |
| Harris was 1.3 points ahead according to Nate Silver's tracker | |
| Harris was 0.8 points ahead according to RealClearPolitics | |
| Harris held a lead in Michigan, with 48.4% of the projected vote compared to Trump's 47.2%, according to Nate Silver's model | |
| Harris held 48% of the vote to Trump's 47% according to FiveThirtyEight's model | |
| Harris had a slight 0.4-point advantage according to FiveThirtyEight | |
| Harris won endorsements from notable Michigan Republicans, including former U.S. Reps. Fred Upton and Dave Trott | |
| Harris had support from younger voters and Black voters | |
| Harris had support from women voters | |
| Harris had support from union households | |
| Outcome | Donald Trump won Michigan |
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What You'll Learn
Harris' lead in Michigan polls
Other polls also gave Harris a narrow lead in Michigan. A Marist poll released in September showed Harris with a 5-point lead, which had narrowed to a 3-point lead in October. FiveThirtyEight and pollster Nate Silver's tracker showed Harris with a 1-point lead, while RealClearPolitics put her ahead by 0.8 points. Harris' clearest path to victory involved winning Michigan, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, known as the "blue wall" states.
However, despite these projections, Donald Trump ultimately won Michigan, securing the state's 15 electoral votes. Trump received 49.7% of the vote compared to Harris' 48.3%, with 99% of votes counted. This marked the second consecutive election in which Michigan went to the Republicans, after almost 30 years of supporting Democratic presidential candidates.
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Michigan's Black voters
In 2024, Kamala Harris was a presidential candidate, and Michigan was once again a crucial battleground state. Harris and her opponent, Donald Trump, both campaigned heavily in Michigan, recognising the importance of the state's Black voters. According to pre-election polls, Harris held a slim lead in Michigan, with support from Black voters contributing to her projected advantage. However, on election day, Trump narrowly won Michigan, securing the state's 15 electoral votes.
The close race in Michigan highlights the significance of voter engagement and turnout. While pre-election polls suggested Harris had an edge, the outcome underscored the unpredictable nature of elections and the importance of mobilising voters. Michigan's Black voters, like all voters, need to be engaged and given attention by candidates seeking their support.
Although Harris fell short in Michigan in 2024, the state's Black voters remain a crucial demographic for future elections. Candidates seeking to win Michigan must recognise the issues that matter to Black voters, such as economic opportunities, affordable housing, and police brutality, and engage with the community to earn their support.
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Michigan's Arab-American voters
Michigan is a crucial state for both the Democratic and Republican candidates to win, with 15 Electoral College votes up for grabs. In 2024, the state was won by Donald Trump, who secured 49.7% of the vote compared to Kamala Harris' 48.3%. This was a significant shift from 2020, when Joe Biden won by a margin of about 154,000 votes.
One factor in Trump's victory was the support he received from Arab-American voters in Michigan, particularly in Dearborn, which has one of the largest concentrations of Arab Americans in the nation. Nearly half of Dearborn's 110,000 residents are of Arab descent, and the city has traditionally been a Democratic stronghold. However, in 2024, Trump won 47% of the vote in Dearborn, compared to 28% for Harris, according to unofficial results.
The shift in support among Arab-American voters in Michigan was influenced by several factors, including the Biden-Harris administration's unwavering support for Israel in the war in Gaza and Lebanon. Many Arab Americans were angered by the US's decision to send weapons to Israel during the conflict, which resulted in over 43,000 deaths in Gaza, according to Palestinian health officials. Additionally, Harris's refusal to host a Palestinian American onstage at the Democratic National Convention and her comments reaffirming her "unequivocal and unwavering" commitment to Israel's defence further alienated some Arab-American voters.
In contrast, Trump and his allies made a targeted effort to court Arab-American voters in Michigan. Amer Ghalib, the Democratic Muslim mayor of Hamtramck, endorsed Trump, and Trump made multiple visits to Arab-American groups during his general election campaign. These factors, combined with the lack of public outreach by the Biden-Harris campaign to Arab-American leaders in Michigan, likely contributed to the shift in support among Arab-American voters in the state.
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Michigan's young voters
Young voters in Michigan played a crucial role in the 2024 election. While youth voter turnout decreased nationally compared to 2020, Michigan's youth voter turnout was estimated to be 42%, on par with the 2016 presidential election.
In the lead-up to the election, polls showed that Michigan's young voters favored Kamala Harris over Donald Trump by 4 points: 51% to 47%. Harris' lead was even more pronounced among the youngest voters in Michigan, with a 6-point advantage over Trump for voters aged 18-24. Notably, voters aged 25-29 supported Trump by 2 points, highlighting a notable difference in preferences within the 18-29 age group.
Harris' campaign made efforts to appeal to young voters in Michigan, with a rally at Michigan State University in East Lansing. This focus on young voters was part of a broader strategy, as young people were considered a key demographic for the Democratic Party.
Despite Harris' lead in the polls among young voters, Trump ultimately won Michigan, securing 49.7% of the vote compared to Harris' 48.3%. This victory contributed to Trump's sweep of critical swing states, including Michigan, which had previously supported Democrats for almost 30 years before narrowly going to Trump in 2016.
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Michigan's status as a swing state
Michigan's swing state status is due in part to its nearly even partisan lean, with close margins in the 2016 and 2020 elections. The state has 15 electoral votes in the Electoral College, making it a desirable prize for both major parties. Michigan's political landscape has shifted over time, voting exclusively Republican in the 1970s and 1980s, then reliably Democratic in recent decades until 2016, when former President Donald Trump won by a narrow margin.
In the 2024 election, Michigan was again hotly contested, with both Harris and Trump campaigning heavily in the state. Despite Harris leading in some polls, Trump ultimately won Michigan by a slim margin of 1.4 percentage points, securing the state's 15 electoral votes. This victory was significant as it was one of the seven critical swing states that Trump needed to secure a clean sweep.
The state's swing status is also influenced by its diverse demographics, including the largest Arab-American population in the US, and a significant number of Black voters, making it a key target for both parties' campaigns. Issues such as the economy, immigration, and the conflict in Gaza were top concerns for Michigan voters, reflecting the state's varied interests.
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Frequently asked questions
No, she lost to Donald Trump.
Michigan has a sizeable Arab-American population, with a large number of union members.
The economy, reproductive rights, education, and immigration.
Most polls predicted a tight race, with Harris leading by a small margin.
