Eleanor Finch
Texas is a key state in the 2024 US presidential election, with 40 electoral votes up for grabs. The state has not voted Democrat since 1976, but some consider it a potential swing state. Kamala Harris, the Democratic vice president, took her campaign to Texas to shine a light on the state's abortion ban. However, polling suggests Trump is leading Harris in Texas by roughly seven points, and he is expected to carry the state.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Texas' political leanings | Texas is a red state that has not voted Democrat in a presidential election since 1976. |
| Texas' importance in the 2024 election | Texas has 40 electoral votes, the second-highest number in the country. |
| Kamala Harris' chances of winning Texas | Slim, with polls giving Trump a lead of between 4 and 12 points. |
| Donald Trump's chances of winning Texas | High, with one model predicting a 90% chance of victory. |
| Voter demographics | Older voters tend to support Trump, while younger voters tend to support Harris. |
| Voter concerns | Electricity service reliability, rising property taxes, housing affordability, and flooding. |
| Voter confidence | 86% of Texas likely voters believe that the 2024 election in their county will be conducted fairly and accurately. |
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What You'll Learn
Kamala Harris campaigns in Texas despite expectations of a loss
Kamala Harris, the Democratic vice president, took her campaign to Texas despite expectations of a loss in the state. With only 11 days remaining before Election Day 2024, Harris headed to the Lone Star State, not because she expected to win, but to highlight Texas' abortion ban and the larger national conversation about abortion rights and reproductive healthcare.
Harris aimed to deliver a significant address on reproductive freedom in Houston, joined by individuals who had faced the consequences of state-level abortion bans. The vice president's visit to Texas was part of a strategy to focus on battleground states, where the race would likely be decided by voters. However, Texas was not considered one of those pivotal states, and polling suggested that Donald Trump was leading Harris in the state by about seven points.
While some considered Texas a potential swing state due to its narrowing margins in the last two presidential elections, it was still largely considered a red state. The state had not voted Democratic in a presidential election since 1976, and Republicans had held all statewide offices since 1999. Additionally, Texas' location in the Bible Belt contributed to the GOP's dominance.
Despite the expectations of a loss, Harris enjoyed strong support among young voters in Texas, with a 19-point lead among voters aged 18 to 39. Overall, Harris was on track to record the Democrats' best result in a presidential election in Texas since 1992, according to a survey. This improvement in performance over the last two elections raised hopes among some Democrats that they could flip the state.
However, Harris faced criticism for her campaign style and policy positions, with some describing her as ""grating" and "annoying." Her loss to Donald Trump in the presidential election came as a shock to her, but not to most observers, as Trump had been favored to win Texas.
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Texas' significance in the national conversation about abortion rights
Texas holds significance in the national conversation about abortion rights, with Kamala Harris taking her campaign to the state to shine a light on its abortion ban. Texas is the second most populous state, with over 29 million residents, including nearly 7 million women of reproductive age. The state has enacted several restrictions on abortion care, including a trigger ban, a pre-viability gestational ban, a telemedicine ban, mandatory waiting periods, biased counseling, and ultrasound requirements. The state also restricts public funding and private insurance coverage for abortions and has a parental consent requirement for minors.
Texas's abortion ban, known as the "Texas Heartbeat Act" or SB 8, prohibits abortion after a fetal heartbeat is detected and includes a "civil enforcement" measure that allows individuals to sue anyone involved in providing or aiding an abortion. This has led to a decrease in access to abortion services, with 96% of Texas counties lacking a single abortion provider. The state's large population and restrictive abortion laws have made it a focal point in the national conversation about abortion rights, with Harris addressing the issue during her campaign visit.
Texas's abortion ban has had a significant impact on access to abortion services in the state. The number of abortions in Texas decreased by nearly 50% in the first 30 days following the implementation of SB 8. This decrease would have been more significant if not for the efforts of abortion providers working longer hours and an increase in donations to abortion funds. Despite these efforts, the ban has created financial and logistical barriers for many people seeking abortion care.
The state's abortion restrictions have also had legal implications, with a Texas midwife, Maria Margarita Rojas, becoming the first person to face criminal charges under the state's near-total abortion ban. Rojas was charged with illegally performing abortions and practicing medicine without a license, facing felony charges and potential prison time. The state's attorney general, Ken Paxton, has strongly supported the abortion ban, stating that he will "always do everything in his power to protect the unborn" and enforce Texas's "pro-life laws."
The national conversation about abortion rights has been influenced by Texas's abortion ban and the subsequent impact on access to abortion services and legal consequences for providers. Harris's decision to address the issue during her campaign visit highlights the significance of the state in the ongoing debate about abortion rights in the United States.
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Texas is a must-win state for the Republican Party
The state's location in the American South and the Bible Belt has contributed to the GOP's dominance over the last few decades. While Texas backed Trump by 9% in 2016, this margin narrowed to 5.6% in 2020, the closest in the 21st century. This shift is attributed to the fast-growing Texas Triangle, encompassing Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio, which houses over 70% of the state's population and is trending leftward.
Despite this, Texas is still expected to remain in the GOP column in 2024. Recent polls give Trump a lead of between four and twelve percentage points over Kamala Harris, although one poll by FiveThirtyEight gave Harris a 1.4% lead. Texas is crucial for the Republican Party's path to the White House, and they will be keen to maintain their dominance in the state.
Looking further ahead, Democrats recognize that investing in Texas is essential for their long-term success. By 2032, Texas could become the key to a national victory for the Democrats, and they aim to make it a state that Republicans must defend. With the right investment and strategy, Texas could become a battleground state, and its large number of electoral votes make it a tempting target for the Democrats.
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Texas has shifted towards the GOP in recent years
Texas has been a Republican stronghold for the past three decades. Since the 1990s, the state has been dominated by the Republican Party, which currently controls every statewide office, both Senate seats in the US Congress, and holds majorities in the State House and Senate.
This shift towards the GOP in Texas can be traced back to the 1960s, when southern white voters began to align with the Republican Party following the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965. In the 1994 Republican Revolution, Democratic Governor Ann Richards lost her re-election bid to Republican George W. Bush, marking the end of an era of Democratic control. Since then, Republicans have won the governorship and maintained their dominance in the state.
In recent years, Texas has continued to shift towards the GOP, with 216 of the state's 254 counties moving towards the Republicans each cycle since 2016. This includes the Rio Grande Valley, a predominantly Latino region in South Texas that has historically voted overwhelmingly Democratic. However, in the 2020 election, the region shifted more decisively towards Trump than any other region in the country, except for Miami-Dade in Florida. This shift among Hispanic voters has been attributed to the GOP's messaging on issues such as inflation, abortion, and illegal immigration.
While some consider Texas a potential swing state, with the margin between Republicans and Democrats narrowing in recent elections, it is still generally considered a red state. Texas has not voted Democratic in a presidential election since 1976, and in 2024, polls predicted a win for Donald Trump, maintaining Texas' status as a Republican-leaning state.
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Harris County voters' attitudes about electricity reliability
A survey conducted by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston reveals that Harris County voters' top concerns are electricity reliability, rising property taxes, housing affordability, and flooding. 36% of those surveyed listed electric service reliability as one of their top three concerns, compared to 33% for rising property taxes, 32% for housing affordability, and 30% for flooding.
The survey also found that 86% of Harris County voters support legislation that would require CenterPoint to cover the $800 million cost of unused large mobile generators leased following the 2021 winter storm and reimburse ratepayers. CenterPoint has defended its acquisition of the generators, stating that they were obtained in response to post-Uri regulations and a PUC order limiting rotating outages to 12 hours. However, respondents to the Hobby School's survey disputed CenterPoint's claims, arguing that the generators are not designed for mobile rapid response use.
In addition to concerns about electricity reliability, Harris County voters also expressed worries about power outages and the impact of weather events like hurricanes and storms. Voters supported giving the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) more power to ensure utilities like CenterPoint improve their infrastructure. The survey revealed strong support across party lines for legislation holding CenterPoint financially accountable, with 82% of voters in favor.
While crime and rising property taxes were cited by 16% of voters as the most serious issue facing the county, 12% still considered electricity service reliability a top concern. This indicates that electricity reliability is a significant issue for Harris County voters, influencing their voting intentions and perceptions of local candidates.
Overall, the survey highlights Harris County voters' attitudes about electricity reliability, with a focus on power outages, infrastructure improvements, and financial accountability for energy providers. These concerns are shaped by their experiences with extreme weather events and their impact on the community's quality of life.
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Frequently asked questions
Kamala Harris lost the 2024 US presidential election race in Texas to Donald Trump.
Harris took her campaign to Texas to shine a light on the state's abortion ban and the larger national conversation about abortion rights and reproductive health care.
Harris was predicted to have a 46-48% chance of winning Texas. She was predicted to do well among voters aged 18-39, but Texas is generally considered to be a red state.
Trump won Texas with 56% of the vote.
The results of the 2024 election in Texas show a dramatic shift towards the GOP in South Texas. However, Harris County, the nation's third-largest county, remains a Democratic stronghold.
