Eleanor Finch
Diplomacy between the United States and North Korea has been a complex and challenging issue for decades. While the Obama administration focused on strategic patience, employing sanctions, pressure, and isolation to pursue North Korea's denuclearization, the Trump administration took a personalized approach by engaging directly with Kim Jong Un. Despite these efforts, North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities continue to advance, with the country estimated to possess 30 to 60 nuclear weapons. The Biden administration now faces the task of crafting a diplomatic strategy that addresses this persistent threat while exploring opportunities for peace. This includes empowering a US negotiating team, offering humanitarian assistance, and engaging in public diplomacy to influence North Korean audiences. However, with North Korea's growing alliance with Russia, the prospects for diplomacy remain uncertain.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities | Ever-growing; North Korea has not conducted any nuclear or intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests since 2018, but it has continued to advance its nuclear and ballistic missile programs |
| US-North Korea relations | Tense; North Korea cut off diplomatic ties with the US in 2020, and the US has imposed sanctions and penalties on North Korea |
| Diplomatic strategy | Should assume that the North Korean government is uncertain about its next steps and should focus on sustaining diplomatic momentum to create an environment for North Korean leaders to make hard choices |
| US policy | Should not accept North Korea as a nuclear weapons state; should pursue a diplomatic track while deterring, defending, and containing the North Korean nuclear threat |
| North Korea's position | If North Korea reengages, it will be on the premise of dropping denuclearization from the agenda |
| US-North Korea summits | Unlikely to occur again, but not impossible |
| North Korea's allies | Russia, Iran; North Korea has provided Russia with munitions and troops in the Ukraine war |
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What You'll Learn
- The US must deter, defend and contain the North Korean nuclear threat
- The US must not accept North Korea as a nuclear weapons state
- The US must engage in persistent, sustained diplomacy to build trust
- The US must cooperate with South Korea, China, and Japan to offer COVID-19-related humanitarian assistance to Pyongyang
- The US must target university and graduate students, especially those from elite families, as they are the next generation of leaders
The US must deter, defend and contain the North Korean nuclear threat
North Korea's nuclear threat is a serious and growing concern for the US and its allies. The US must take steps to deter, defend against, and contain this threat.
Firstly, to deter North Korea, the US must strengthen its military presence in the region. This includes modernizing military bases and infrastructure in South Korea, as well as continuing joint military drills with South Korea and Japan to ensure a united front. The US should also consider boosting its nuclear forces and those of its allies in the Indo-Pacific region, and establishing nuclear burden-sharing agreements.
Secondly, to defend against North Korea's nuclear threat, the US should deconcentrate its northeast Asian force structure. US military bases in South Korea and Japan are obvious missile targets for North Korea. By deconcentrating its forces, the US can reduce the risk of massive casualties and assets loss in the event of a missile strike.
Thirdly, to contain North Korea's nuclear program, the US should pursue a combination of diplomacy and sanctions. Diplomacy with North Korea has proven challenging, but persistent and sustained diplomatic efforts are necessary to build trust and chart a phased roadmap to denuclearization. This includes offering humanitarian assistance and laying out a clear roadmap for sanctions relief in exchange for North Korea's genuine efforts to freeze and eliminate its nuclear and missile programs.
Additionally, the US should work with its allies to strengthen the enforcement of existing sanctions and international pressure campaigns against North Korea, particularly in response to its illicit activities to fund its weapons program. The US must also address North Korea's alignment with Russia and China, which has enabled it to circumvent international sanctions.
In conclusion, the US must take a comprehensive approach to deterring, defending against, and containing the North Korean nuclear threat. This includes strengthening military capabilities, deconcentrating forces, pursuing diplomacy, and enforcing sanctions.
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The US must not accept North Korea as a nuclear weapons state
North Korea has been pursuing nuclear weapons for the last 26 years, and it currently possesses an arsenal of 20 to 60 nuclear weapons. The country has also continued to advance its nuclear and ballistic missile programs while seeking negotiations with the United States. North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities pose a significant threat to regional stability and global security.
The United States must not accept North Korea as a nuclear weapons state because doing so would set a dangerous precedent and increase the risk of nuclear proliferation in the region. If North Korea is recognized as a nuclear-armed state, other countries in the region, such as South Korea and Japan, may also seek to acquire their own nuclear weapons for deterrence purposes, despite U.S. extended nuclear deterrence assurances. This could lead to a nuclear arms race and further destabilize the region.
Additionally, accepting North Korea as a nuclear weapons state would undermine the credibility and effectiveness of international non-proliferation efforts, such as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). North Korea is the only non-nuclear weapon state that signed the NPT, cheated on it, built nuclear weapons, and got away with it. Recognizing its nuclear status would send a message to other countries that they can follow a similar path without consequences.
Furthermore, North Korea's nuclear weapons program is closely linked to its history of human rights abuses and aggressive behavior. The country has a million-plus standing military, the largest per capita armed force in the world, and has frequently engaged in provocative actions and weapons tests. Recognizing North Korea as a nuclear weapons state would embolden its aggressive behavior and make it even more challenging to hold the country accountable for its human rights violations.
The United States must continue to pursue a comprehensive approach that seeks to denuclearize North Korea through persistent and sustained diplomacy, while also ensuring deterrence of the North Korean threat. This includes strengthening the enforcement of existing sanctions, offering humanitarian assistance to build confidence, and engaging in multilateral non-proliferation initiatives to increase North Korea's integration and stake in the global community. While it may not be possible to rapidly force a rollback of North Korea's nuclear program, a broad peace process that addresses multiple fronts can help ease progress on denuclearization.
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The US must engage in persistent, sustained diplomacy to build trust
The United States and North Korea have had a tumultuous relationship, with North Korea's nuclear and missile programs posing a persistent and complex foreign policy issue for the US. Despite Trump's outreach, North Korea remains preoccupied with supporting Russia in its war against Ukraine, and experts suggest diplomacy with the US is unlikely unless the situation with Russia changes.
The US must engage in persistent and sustained diplomacy to build trust and improve relations with North Korea. More than two decades of diplomatic endeavors have failed to curb the development of North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities. The best approach to realize these objectives is to build an ambitious, broad peace process. This process should cover issues that ordinary people can connect with and understand, such as economic cooperation and humanitarian assistance, which can create an environment in which North Korean leaders might make hard choices regarding denuclearization.
A broad peace process would do more to ease progress on denuclearization and other fronts. It is important to remember that the parties involved do not need to be ready for great change, only that they are genuinely ready to consider it. This puts the Koreans at the center of the action, while engaging the US and other key countries in appropriate ways.
To operationalize these commitments, the Biden administration should empower a US negotiating team and encourage Pyongyang to return to the negotiating table to build on the principles agreed upon at the Singapore summit, including working towards a new US-North Korean relationship and the complete denuclearization and establishment of peace on the Korean peninsula. As a first step, the Biden administration should consider cooperating with South Korea, China, and Japan to offer COVID-19-related humanitarian assistance to Pyongyang as a means to build confidence and generate a positive atmosphere for nuclear negotiations.
Additionally, public diplomacy activities intended to understand, inform, and influence foreign audiences can be an essential tool in achieving long-term policy objectives. A successful policy of public diplomacy that provides diverse and truthful content and messaging to targeted audiences in North Korea could help convince people to prefer and demand a freer country for themselves. It is critical to target university and graduate students, especially those from elite families, as they are the next generation of leaders.
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The US must cooperate with South Korea, China, and Japan to offer COVID-19-related humanitarian assistance to Pyongyang
The relationship between the United States and North Korea has been historically tense, with North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities being a significant concern for the US. Despite this, the US has expressed support for humanitarian assistance to North Korea, particularly in light of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Biden administration has continued to support providing COVID-19-related humanitarian assistance to North Korea, recognizing the urgency of the situation and the potential impact on the region's stability and security. This includes the provision of medical supplies and equipment, as well as food aid through the United Nations World Food Programme.
To further strengthen this effort and build trust, the US should cooperate with South Korea, China, and Japan in offering COVID-19-related humanitarian assistance to Pyongyang. By working together, these countries can not only address the immediate humanitarian needs of the North Korean people but also create a positive atmosphere for future diplomatic negotiations.
A joint effort in providing humanitarian assistance can serve as a confidence-building measure, demonstrating to North Korea that these countries are committed to supporting and engaging with them. This approach aligns with the broader strategy of persistent and sustained diplomacy, which aims to gradually build trust and work towards denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula over time.
Additionally, by involving South Korea, China, and Japan, the US can ensure that the assistance reaches those in need effectively and efficiently. These countries have closer geographic proximity and, in some cases, existing relationships with North Korea that can be leveraged for efficient aid distribution.
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The US must target university and graduate students, especially those from elite families, as they are the next generation of leaders
The US faces a challenging task in dealing with North Korea's ever-growing nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities. Diplomacy is essential, but it will be a complex process. The US must target the next generation of North Korean leaders, specifically university and graduate students from elite families, to foster meaningful change.
North Korea's leadership remains convinced that nuclear weapons are the ultimate guarantee of their regime's security. Decades of diplomatic efforts, sanctions, and even the consideration of military force have not curbed their nuclear ambitions. The country's nuclear and missile programs continue to advance, posing an urgent threat that must be addressed.
The US should focus on the next generation of North Korean leaders, particularly those from elite families, as they will shape the country's future. These individuals have grown up in a culture of fear and gift-giving, where loyalty is often secured through luxury rewards. Targeting this demographic with a different narrative could disrupt the current trajectory.
University and graduate students from elite families are the future policymakers, scientists, and influencers of North Korea. They are the ones who will determine whether the country continues down the path of nuclear proliferation or chooses a different route. Engaging and influencing these young adults is crucial to fostering any meaningful change in North Korea's nuclear ambitions.
The US must find ways to connect with these students, understand their motivations, and offer alternative paths to security and prosperity. It will require a long-term strategy that focuses on building relationships, exchanging ideas, and providing opportunities for these future leaders to envision a different future for their country.
By targeting university and graduate students, especially those from elite families, the US can lay the groundwork for a more stable and secure future on the Korean peninsula. It will not be a quick fix, but it is a necessary step towards achieving a peaceful resolution to the North Korean nuclear challenge.
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Frequently asked questions
Diplomacy with North Korea is challenging because the country's leadership remains convinced that nuclear weapons are the surest form of regime security. The country has continued to advance its nuclear and ballistic missile programs despite seeking negotiations with the United States.
One potential strategy is to empower a US negotiating team to work with Pyongyang to build on the principles agreed upon at the Singapore summit, including working towards a new US-North Korean relationship and the complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. Another strategy is to cooperate with South Korea, China, and Japan to offer COVID-19-related humanitarian assistance to Pyongyang as a means to build confidence and generate a positive atmosphere for nuclear negotiations.
Diplomacy is preferable to conflict, and the United States has a history of engaging with its enemies when it serves its security interests. A broad peace process could electrify the political environment throughout the Korean Peninsula and create opportunities for progress on denuclearization and other fronts.
There is a risk that North Korea will not engage in good faith and will use diplomatic negotiations to buy time to advance its nuclear and missile programs. There is also a risk of retaliation against South Korean, Japanese, and US forces if negotiations fail, which could result in significant destruction and loss of life.
