Malcolm Rivera
In 2020, the United States faced a looming constitutional crisis. The controversy surrounding the 2020 elections and the Supreme Court's political leanings heated up the debate over the future of the US and its founding creed. The election of Joe Biden as president marked the beginning of a slow-burn constitutional crisis. Biden's plans faced immediate judicial difficulties due to a heavily conservative Supreme Court and a Senate that could block his legislation. This crisis has sparked discussions about the US Constitution and whether it needs to be amended to make America more democratic. Some scholars argue that the US Senate disproportionately favours white, rural, Christian conservatives, giving them an increasingly powerful veto over the country's decisions. The question of whether America will tear itself apart remains uncertain, but the country's future direction is heavily debated.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Date | 2020 |
| Author | Norman Ornstein |
| Author's Credentials | Leading scholar of US politics at the American Enterprise Institute |
| Subject | The potential for America to tear itself apart |
| Reasoning | The US Constitution is too old and set in stone to be useful |
| Predicted Outcome of 2020 Election | Biden victory |
| Predicted Outcome of Victory | Slow-burn constitutional crisis |
| Predicted Outcome by 2030 | America will start to fall apart |
| Reason for Predicted Outcome | 30% of the US will elect 70 out of 100 senators |
| Senate Described As | "An affirmative-action programme for white, rural, Christian conservatives, who have an increasingly powerful veto over America." |
| Predicted Outcome of Supreme Court Hearing | Striking down of "individual mandate" in Obamacare |
| Difficulty of Avoiding Crisis | Very difficult |
| Suggested Solution | Amend the Constitution to make America more democratic |
| Difficulty of Suggested Solution | Very difficult |
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What You'll Learn
The US Constitution as a secular religion
The US Constitution has long been revered by Americans as a quasi-religious set of commandments. This is evidenced by the pride expressed by Georgetown Law School students over the US Constitution being the oldest in the world. However, the age of the Constitution may not be something to be proud of, as Professor Rosa Brooks points out in her counterargument that Americans would not want surgeons using the oldest neurological manuals or ships using the oldest navigational charts.
The US Constitution has hardly changed to reflect the times, and amending it is difficult. Amendments require approval by three-quarters of America's 50 states and two-thirds of each chamber of Congress. The last memorable amendment was passed in 1971, reducing the voting age to 18.
The US Constitution's status as a sacred document is highlighted in the context of the 2020 elections and the potential for a constitutional crisis. With the likelihood of a Biden victory, the country could face a slow-burn constitutional crisis, with Biden's plans facing judicial difficulties due to a conservative Supreme Court and a Senate that could block his legislation. This crisis could escalate tensions between liberals and conservatives and lead to a breakdown.
The question arises: has the US Constitution become a secular religion? Brooks poses this question, suggesting that the Constitution may be too sacralised to be debated and changed. This inflexibility could hinder the country's ability to adapt and address the challenges it faces.
While some worry about the potential for civil war or breakdown, others argue that this is unlikely. America's reverence for its Constitution may be a factor in this debate, influencing the country's future path and its ability to find a way forward that does not involve tearing itself apart.
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The Supreme Court's role in the crisis
The Supreme Court is an important player in the potential constitutional crisis that the United States faces. The Court is heavily conservative, and this is likely to cause issues for Biden's plans, even if he wins the 2020 election by a landslide.
One of the first challenges that a Biden administration would face from the Supreme Court would be to his plans for healthcare. The Supreme Court is likely to strike down the "individual mandate" that obliges everyone to buy health insurance under Obamacare. This would make it very difficult for any affordable US public healthcare system to work. Biden would also face a Senate that could block his legislation, as happened during the last six out of eight years of Barack Obama's presidency. Even if the Democrats regained control of the Senate, Biden would need a filibuster-proof supermajority of 60 to pass serious legislation.
The Supreme Court's conservative nature is also likely to lead to a "judicial expansion of religious restrictions dressed up as freedom in the language of originalism", according to Posner. This is part of a wider issue of the US Constitution being too set in stone and not reflecting modern times.
The only way to amend the Constitution is to get approval from three-quarters of America's 50 states and two-thirds of each chamber of Congress. This is seen as an impossibility in today's polarized climate.
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The 2020 election and its impact
The 2020 election saw Joe Biden defeat Donald Trump and become the 46th President of the United States. In the lead-up to the election, there were fears that the results would cause a constitutional crisis in the country. This was due to the potential for a Trump loss to escalate tensions between liberals and conservatives, as well as the possibility of Trump refusing to leave office.
Some scholars, like Norman Ornstein, believed that Barrett's confirmation would "escalate the already existing nuclear arms race between liberals and conservatives". This could lead to a full-blown crisis over America's founding creed. Additionally, there were concerns that Trump might not accept the election results and could use the courts to his advantage, as he had done throughout his career. These fears were not unfounded, as Trump did make unsubstantiated claims of election fraud and attempted to overturn the results.
A Biden victory was predicted to lead to a slow-burn constitutional crisis, with his plans facing immediate judicial difficulties. A heavily conservative Supreme Court and a blocking Senate would pose significant challenges to Biden's agenda. The Supreme Court, for instance, was expected to strike down the "individual mandate" of Obamacare, which requires everyone to buy health insurance. This would have significant implications for affordable public healthcare in the US.
The election also brought to light the rigidity of the US Constitution and its difficulty in adapting to modern times. Scholars like Rosa Brooks questioned the pride surrounding the age of the Constitution, highlighting that such pride would be misplaced in other contexts, like medicine or navigation. The challenge, as Ornstein points out, is the disproportionate power held by a small portion of the country, with 30% of the US able to elect 70 out of 100 senators in 20 years. This, along with the Senate's function as an "affirmative-action programme for white, rural, Christian conservatives", according to Levinson, creates a veto power that can obstruct progressive change.
The impact of the 2020 election, therefore, extended beyond the victory of one candidate. It brought to the forefront the deep political and ideological divisions within the country and the potential for these divisions to escalate into a constitutional crisis. The election prompted discussions on the role and adaptability of the Constitution and the steps needed to make America more democratic.
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The possibility of a Biden victory
Assuming a Biden victory in 2020, the United States would have faced a slow-burn constitutional crisis rather than an imminent breakdown. Biden's plans would have encountered immediate judicial difficulties, including a heavily conservative Supreme Court that could strike down the "individual mandate" of Obamacare, requiring everyone to buy health insurance. This would have effectively eliminated any prospect of affordable US public healthcare coverage. Biden would also have faced a Senate capable of blocking his legislation, as occurred during the final six years of Barack Obama's presidency. Even if the Democrats regained control of the Senate, Biden would have required a filibuster-proof supermajority of 60 seats to pass significant legislation.
According to Norman Ornstein, a leading scholar of US politics at the American Enterprise Institute, Barrett's confirmation escalated the nuclear arms race between liberals and conservatives. Ornstein predicted that by 2030, 30% of the US would elect 70 out of 100 senators, indicating a troubling trend. Levinson, another commentator, described the US Senate as an "affirmative-action programme for white, rural, Christian conservatives", highlighting their disproportionate influence over the country's direction.
The US Constitution, the world's oldest, has been revered by Americans as a quasi-religious set of commandments. However, critics argue that it is too rigid and fails to adapt to changing times. Some have suggested amending the Constitution to make America more democratic, but this would require approval from three-quarters of the states and two-thirds of Congress, a challenging feat in today's polarised political climate.
While a Biden victory may have averted an immediate constitutional crisis, it would have exposed deep-seated issues within the US political system. The challenge for Biden and future administrations is to address these structural problems and prevent a gradual erosion of America's foundations.
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The future of the US
The US Constitution, the world's oldest at 233 years old, has been criticised for its lack of relevance in modern times. Rosa Brooks, a professor at Georgetown Law School, compares adhering to the old constitution to surgeons using outdated manuals or ships steering with ancient charts. This criticism highlights the need for the constitution to evolve and adapt to the changing needs of the country.
A Biden victory was predicted to trigger a slow-burn constitutional crisis, with his plans facing immediate judicial obstacles. A conservative Supreme Court, for instance, could strike down the "individual mandate" of Obamacare, which requires everyone to purchase health insurance. Additionally, Biden would have to navigate a Senate that previously blocked Obama's legislation and could continue to obstruct his agenda.
The US Senate has been characterised as favouring white, rural, Christian conservatives, giving them an influential veto power over the nation. This has led to concerns about the expansion of religious restrictions disguised as a return to originalism. The polarisation of American politics has made it challenging to implement changes, as amendments require approval from a significant portion of states and Congress.
While some feared that a Trump loss could lead to civil unrest or even civil war, others argued that Trump had limited power without the support of the military, National Guard, or police. The speculation centred on whether Trump would abide by the courts' decisions and the potential consequences of his refusal to accept electoral defeat.
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Frequently asked questions
The 2020 elections and the Supreme Court politics heated up the debate over the future of the US and its founding creed.
Brooks asked her students what they thought of the US Constitution. When her students expressed pride in the US Constitution being the oldest in the world, she asked them if they would be happy for surgeons to work off the oldest neurological manuals or ships to steer by the oldest navigational charts.
Ornstein said that if the system remains the same in 2030 as it was in 2020, America will start to fall apart. He pointed out that within 20 years, 30% of the US will elect 70 out of 100 senators.
It is unlikely that America will tear itself apart. While Trump may refuse to leave office, he has no power without armed bodies of men. The military is sworn to protect the constitution, ruling out a military coup.
The simplest step would be to amend the constitution to make America more democratic. However, this is difficult as amendments require approval by three-quarters of America's 50 states and two-thirds of each chamber of Congress.
