Omar Bennett
Predicting who will win an election is a challenging task, as various factors can influence the outcome. In the United States, the Electoral College system adds further complexity, as the popular vote does not always align with the final result. While polling data can provide insights, external influences such as disinformation, immigration issues, and dark money can also impact the election dynamics. Ultimately, understanding the behaviour of different voter demographics is crucial, as seen with the gender gap and the education divide in recent US elections.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Voter turnout | 63.3% (second highest since 1960) |
| Popular vote | Donald Trump (narrowly won) |
| Electoral College | Donald Trump (decisive victory) |
| US Senate | Republicans (53 seats) |
| House of Representatives | Republicans (218 seats) |
| Governor seats | Republicans (27), Democrats (23) |
| State legislatures | Republicans (50), Democrats (33) |
| European support | Kamala Harris (in all countries surveyed) |
| RI polls | Kamala Harris (54%) |
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What You'll Learn
The influence of money
Money plays a significant role in elections, and while it doesn't always guarantee victory, it often influences the outcome. This influence can manifest in several ways. Firstly, candidates who spend more money on their campaigns can gain an advantage in terms of visibility and outreach. They can afford more extensive advertising, travel to meet voters, and hire skilled strategists, potentially resulting in a surge in popularity. This is particularly true for less well-known candidates, who may use financial backing to quickly build name recognition and compete with more established opponents.
Secondly, money can come with strings attached, as donors often expect something in return for their contributions. This can lead to candidates becoming beholden to their financial backers, which may influence their policies and decisions if they are elected. Super PACs (Political Action Committees), for example, are independent groups that can raise and spend unlimited funds to support or oppose a candidate. While they are not allowed to coordinate directly with the candidate's campaign, they can have a significant impact on the election by running ads, conducting opposition research, and engaging in other activities that benefit their preferred candidate.
"Dark money" is another factor that can influence elections. This term refers to political spending by groups that do not disclose the sources of their funding. These groups can spend millions of dollars on elections, and their anonymity makes it difficult to know who is trying to influence the outcome and what their motivations might be.
Finally, money can also impact voter turnout and participation. Candidates and parties with more financial resources can invest in get-out-the-vote efforts, including voter registration drives, transportation to polling places, and targeted advertising campaigns. This can result in higher turnout among their supporters, potentially swaying the election in their favour.
In summary, while money is not the sole determinant of electoral success, it is a crucial factor that can shape campaigns, influence voters, and provide candidates with the resources they need to compete and get their message out.
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Gender differences
While the US election system is based on an electoral college system, with each state given a number of votes in line with its population, and the winner decided by who gains the most college votes, it is important to look at the gender differences in voting behaviour.
Women were more likely to support Vice President Kamala Harris, with the Democrats maintaining an advantage with women voters overall. However, this is not a monolithic voting bloc, with differing levels of support among subgroups of women. For example, non-college-educated white women were key to Trump's support, with more than 6 in 10 backing him, and his support among white, born-again, or evangelical women voters increased from 71% in 2020 to 8 in 10 in 2024. In contrast, the percentage of young women supporting the Democrats decreased from 2020 to 2024, while the percentage of young Republican women increased. The only age group of women that voted for Trump over Harris was women aged 45-64.
The gender gap is an important factor in elections, with men more likely to support the Trump ticket, and this was evident in each age cohort. However, it is not a simple divide, as there are many demographic factors that come into play, including race, age, and education.
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The Electoral College system
The US Electoral College system is a method of electing the president, where each state is given a number of votes that roughly corresponds to its population size. This means that each state has a number of electors equal to the sum of its US senators (two) and members of the US House of Representatives (which varies based on population). The Electoral College then elects the president, even if the winner does not receive the majority of the popular vote.
A total of 538 electoral college votes are available, meaning a candidate needs 270 votes to win. In reality, only a handful of states are considered "swing states" or "battleground states", where both candidates have a chance of winning, as most states consistently vote for the same party.
In the 2024 election, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump were the main contenders. Harris initially had a small lead over Trump in national polling averages, but the polls tightened in the final weeks. Harris performed well among college-educated voters, while Trump gained support from non-college-educated voters, particularly women.
Exit polls from the 2024 election revealed that Christian nationalists were more likely to support Trump, with some believing that his victory was divinely ordained. Additionally, QAnon believers were more likely to vote for Trump, while QAnon rejecters favoured Harris.
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Voter education
The US election process is a complex one, with many factors influencing the outcome. The popular vote does not decide the winner, as the Electoral College system is used to elect the president. Each state is assigned a number of electors, and the winner of the Electoral College vote takes the presidency, even if they did not win the popular vote. This makes understanding the system and the value of individual votes crucial for voters.
Polls are a useful tool to gauge public sentiment and predict election outcomes. However, they are not always accurate, as seen in 2016 and 2020, where polling errors occurred due to voters changing their minds and difficulties in getting Trump supporters to participate. While polling methods have improved, the small leads in swing states and the unpredictable nature of some voters make it challenging to predict a clear winner.
Voters' education levels and economic concerns also play a role in their choices. College-educated voters tend to favour Democrats, but they constitute only about 45% of the country, creating a challenge for consistent Democratic wins. On the other hand, non-college-educated voters, particularly women, have shown stronger support for Trump, contributing to his success in 2024.
Additionally, money plays a significant role in elections, with the candidate who spends the most often winning. This trend is more prominent in the House than the Senate. However, contributions can also flow to candidates already viewed as stronger, and money can result in a surge in popularity for lesser-known candidates.
Finally, religious and ideological beliefs influence voting behaviour. For instance, QAnon believers are more likely to support Trump, while those who reject QAnon tend to vote for his opponents. Christian nationalism adherents and sympathizers also show stronger support for Trump, believing in his divine endorsement. Understanding these factors and their impact on voting behaviour is essential for voters to make informed decisions and predict potential election outcomes.
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Immigration issues
Immigration has long been a salient issue in US politics, and it tends to become even more prominent when immigration numbers are high. After the Civil War, the proportion of people in the US who were born in another country rose to over 14%, about the same level as today. While everyone in the US, except Native Americans, has an immigrant ancestor in their family history, there is a long history of hostility towards newly arrived immigrants. This hostility is often used to win votes or incite violence.
In the 2024 election, immigration issues were particularly prominent, with high levels of immigration contributing to a sense of unease among some voters. This unease was exploited by candidates seeking to win votes, with some engaging in disinformation campaigns and spreading false rumours about their opponents. For example, supporters of one candidate may have spread stories that their opponent was in poor health, a tactic that has been used in previous elections.
The issue of immigration also intersected with other factors, such as education and the economy. There was a notable divide between college-educated voters, who tended to support the Democratic candidate, and those without a college education, who were more likely to support the Republican candidate. This divide was a significant factor in the election outcome, as there were not enough college-educated voters to secure a consistent victory for the Democrats.
Additionally, immigration concerns were often linked to economic anxieties, particularly among voters who felt the negative effects of the post-Covid high inflation period. These voters were more likely to support candidates who promised strong action on issues like crime and corruption, even if it meant sacrificing certain rights or civil liberties.
The role of disinformation and the exploitation of immigration fears played a significant role in the election, with some candidates using these tactics to sway voters. However, it is important to note that other factors, such as education and economic concerns, also interacted with immigration issues to shape the outcome of the election.
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Frequently asked questions
It depends on a variety of factors, such as the candidates, the issues at hand, and the money spent on campaigning. In the US, the Electoral College system is used, where each state is given a number of votes based on its population. The candidate who receives 270 out of 538 electoral college votes wins.
Not always. Polls are designed to broadly explain how the public feels about a candidate or issue. They can be affected by factors such as voter demographics and participation rates.
Money doesn't always guarantee victory, but it often plays a significant role. It can influence a candidate's popularity and spending power, and the candidate who spends the most usually wins.
