Simone Lawson
Diplomacy is one of the most undercounted and overlooked levers of influence. The Lowy Institute's Global Diplomacy Index 2024 mapped the world's most significant diplomatic networks, ranking 66 countries and territories. The United States and China dominate the rankings, with China leading in Africa, East Asia, and the Pacific, while the United States has the edge in the Americas, Europe, and South Asia. India, along with Türkiye, has the fastest-growing diplomatic network, reflecting its ambition to lead the Global South.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Country with the best diplomacy | United States and China (neck and neck) |
| Number of diplomatic missions | United States (271) and China (276) |
| Region with the most diplomatic missions | Europe |
| Region with the least diplomatic missions | Central America |
| Country with the fastest-growing diplomatic network | India and Türkiye |
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What You'll Learn
The importance of face-to-face diplomacy
Face-to-face diplomacy has been a lynchpin of world politics since at least the 17th century. However, it has been largely dismissed by scholars of international relations as unimportant. This view is rooted in the assumption that an individual's intentions are fundamentally inaccessible.
Recent discoveries in psychology, sociology, and social neuroscience, however, suggest that face-to-face diplomacy can create durable impressions among leaders and that leaders have good reasons to trust these impressions. Face-to-face diplomacy can also lead to interpersonal bonding, allowing leaders not only to clarify their intentions but also to build trust.
Face-to-face interactions are an important source of evidence for the intentions and motivations of other states. They are also useful for understanding the motivations of other states. For example, interpersonal interactions allow diplomats to observe the body language of their counterparts, which is missing from digital forms of communication.
Face-to-face diplomacy is particularly prominent in the theory of crafting durable and salient personal impressions of the intentions of others. It is also central to theories of cooperation and negotiations. Despite this, there have been few systematic theoretical treatments of face-to-face diplomacy as a distinct activity in international politics.
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The US vs China diplomatic rivalry
The diplomatic rivalry between the United States and China has been a significant aspect of global politics in the 21st century. The two countries have historically had differing social systems, values, geography, and international status, which have influenced their bilateral relationship. While the US has been the dominant power for much of the century, China's influence has been rapidly growing, leading to strategic competition and rivalry between the two nations.
The US-China diplomatic rivalry can be traced back to the mid-19th century, with the Open Door Policy, which advocated for equal trade opportunities and discouraged territorial divisions in China. However, American businesses did not see the vast market expansion they had anticipated. In the 20th century, the US supported China during the Second Sino-Japanese War, but after Japan's defeat, the Chinese Civil War resumed, and US diplomatic efforts to mediate were unsuccessful. The US also did not formally recognize the People's Republic of China (PRC) after the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) prevailed in the civil war, instead maintaining relations with the Republic of China (ROC) based in Taiwan. This led to direct conflict during the Korean War, with the US and China on opposing sides.
Over time, shifting geopolitical dynamics, such as the Sino-Soviet split and the end of the Vietnam War, paved the way for a change in US-China relations. In 1972, US President Richard Nixon's visit to China marked a significant improvement in relations. In 1979, the US formally established diplomatic relations with the PRC and recognized it as the sole legitimate government of China, while still maintaining unofficial ties with Taiwan, an issue that remains contentious. The Obama administration also signed numerous bilateral agreements with China, particularly regarding climate change.
However, the election of President Donald Trump, who campaigned on an assertive stance towards China, led to a sharp downturn in relations. Tensions have continued to escalate, with incidents such as the Chinese theft of F-35 designs and a Chinese reconnaissance balloon flying over US airspace in Montana in 2023. China has also been accused of escalating the risks of war through the militarization of illegal islands in the South China Sea, persistent cyberattacks, and human rights abuses, including the crushing of democracy in Hong Kong and the persecution of Uyghurs in Xinjiang. Beijing, on the other hand, blames the US for "war, chaos, turbulence, and numerous tragedies," arguing that American unilateralism has consistently undermined major international institutions.
Despite the rivalry and tensions, some experts believe that it is still possible for the US and China to reshape their relationship through rationality, patience, wisdom, and creativity. The two countries have a history of maintaining policy flexibility and allowing room for readjustment, recognizing the long-term need for diplomatic relations.
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India's growing diplomatic network
India has the fastest-growing diplomatic network of any country, according to the Global Diplomacy Index released by the Lowy Institute in 2024. The country has added 11 diplomatic posts around the world since 2021, bringing its total to 194 diplomatic posts and jumping to 11th rank in the Index. Over 75% of these new diplomatic posts have been in Africa, with a large chunk (around 40%) in Europe.
India's growing economy, strategic location, and diplomatic foreign policy have won it more allies than enemies. India has friendly relations with several countries in the developing world and maintains a close strategic and military relationship with most of its fellow major powers. Countries considered India's closest allies include the United Arab Emirates, the Russian Federation, Israel, Afghanistan, France, Bhutan, Bangladesh, and the United States.
India's relationship with the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) is at the core of its 'Act East Policy', which aims to promote economic cooperation, cultural ties, and strategic relationships with countries in the Indo-Pacific region while keeping a watchful eye on China's ambitions. India has also enhanced its engagement in various multilateral and plurilateral institutions in the region, such as the East Asia Summit, ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus, and the Indian Ocean Rim Association, among others.
India's Neighbourhood First policy guides its approach towards managing relations with its immediate neighbours, including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The policy aims to enhance physical, digital, and interpersonal connectivity across the region, as well as boost trade and commerce.
India's diplomatic network reflects its growing geopolitical influence and its desire to strengthen ties with countries in Africa, Europe, and the Indo-Pacific region.
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The impact of geopolitical competition
Geopolitical competition between nations has led to an arms race that goes beyond traditional military equipment, extending into cyber warfare and advanced research programs. This has increased the potential for regional conflict, especially in an already tense area. The strategic calculus of the region is significantly impacted by external powers, with the United States and Russia exerting influence.
The future success of regions like East Asia depends on leaders' abilities to transform competitive relationships into a system of controlled rivalry through diplomacy and mutual respect. This can be achieved through confidence-building measures, multilateral dialogue, and crisis management protocols, which help reduce escalation risks.
The relative influence of the United States and China will play a significant role in defining the international landscape. The degree to which these countries recover from Covid-19 and the resulting changes in their strength will shape the future geopolitical landscape. Their relationship is expected to remain intertwined, with bilateral dynamics becoming increasingly competitive, except in the most severe reduction of Chinese global influence.
The highest likelihood outcome for world order in the coming decade is not a unipolar or bipolar Cold War-style competition but a loose multipolarity, with the relative strength of the United States and China balanced by the influence and independent policies of other major powers such as India, Japan, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom.
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The role of diplomacy in statecraft
Diplomacy is an essential tool in the field of statecraft, and its importance has only grown in an increasingly interconnected and contested world. The Lowy Institute's Global Diplomacy Index 2024 mapped the diplomatic networks of 66 countries and territories, providing insights into the relative weight countries place on diplomacy and their ambitions to build influence.
The United States and China are currently neck and neck in the diplomatic rankings, reflecting the ongoing great power rivalry. China has a larger diplomatic presence in Africa, East Asia, the Pacific Islands, and Central Asia, while the United States leads in Europe, North and Central America, and South Asia. This reflects the strategic priorities of both countries and their efforts to project power and influence globally.
Other countries, such as India and Türkiye, are also expanding their diplomatic networks rapidly. India, in particular, is seeking to strengthen its economic ties with Africa and position itself as a leader of the Global South. This expansion of diplomatic networks demonstrates the continued importance countries place on face-to-face diplomacy and having an on-the-ground presence, even in an era of online connectivity.
Diplomacy is a key lever of influence, alongside economic, military, and technological power. It allows countries to build alliances, negotiate agreements, and project their interests on the world stage. The role of diplomacy in statecraft is, therefore, crucial for countries seeking to expand their influence and achieve their strategic objectives. It provides a means to resolve conflicts, foster cooperation, and shape global outcomes in a manner that serves the interests of the state.
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Frequently asked questions
The Lowy Institute's Global Diplomacy Index ranks countries according to their diplomatic networks. As of 2024, China and the United States are neck and neck, with China having a larger diplomatic presence in Africa, East Asia, the Pacific Islands, and Central Asia, and the United States leading in Europe, North and Central America, and South Asia.
The Global Diplomacy Index is a resource for understanding the changing landscape of global diplomacy. It maps the world's most significant diplomatic networks, allowing users to compare the scale of countries' overseas presences and the thickness of their connections.
Despite the ease of online connectivity, diplomatic networks continue to expand and deepen as governments invest in face-to-face diplomacy and an on-the-ground presence.
India and Türkiye have the fastest-growing diplomatic networks, with India adding 11 new posts since 2021, eight of which are in Africa.
Diplomacy is one of the most undercounted and overlooked levers of influence. It is a form of national power that allows countries to project influence and build their presence in the world.
