Jonah Patel
The 'When Diplomacy Fails' podcast examines the causes and consequences of wars, promising juicy diplomacy, sneaky intrigue, fascinating characters, and incredible drama. The podcast covers a range of historical events, from the Thirty Years War to the July Crisis, and offers bonus content and merchandise for its listeners. One episode delves into the infamous chapter of the July Crisis, scrutinising the behaviour of Ambassadors Buchanan and Paleologue, and the role of the German and British governments in the lead-up to the war. Another episode explores the complexities of the Thirty Years War, placing listeners in the thick of a dilemma where neutrality was impossible and the consequences of choosing sides were potentially catastrophic.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Host | Dr Zack Twamley |
| Topics | How wars broke out, how they were concluded, and their consequences |
| Format | Juicy diplomacy, sneaky intrigue, fascinating characters, and incredible drama |
| Current Series | The July Crisis |
| Patreon Series | The Age of Bismarck |
| Episode Frequency | Every second week |
| Episode Length | N/A |
| Episode Availability | Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Podbean App |
| Extras | Merchandise, scripts, exclusive content |
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What You'll Learn
The Thirty Years War
The Thirty Years' War, fought primarily in Central Europe between 1618 and 1648, was one of the most destructive conflicts in European history. An estimated 4.5 to 8 million soldiers and civilians died from battle, famine, or disease, while parts of Germany reported population declines of over 50%. The war was fought for various reasons, including religious, dynastic, territorial, and commercial rivalries.
The Thirty Years' War began as a continuation of the religious conflict initiated by the 16th-century Reformation within the Holy Roman Empire. The 1555 Peace of Augsburg attempted to resolve this by dividing the Empire into Catholic and Lutheran states, but over the next 50 years, the expansion of Protestantism destabilised the settlement. The war is conventionally held to have begun in 1618 when the future Holy Roman Emperor, Ferdinand II, attempted to impose Roman Catholic absolutism on his domains, and the Protestant nobles of Bohemia and Austria rose up in rebellion. This led to the Defenestration of Prague, where defiant Bohemians tossed the Habsburg emperor's envoys from the castle windows. Bohemia was then ravaged by mercenary troops in the first battle of what would become a pan-European conflict.
The principal battlefield for these intermittent conflicts was the towns and principalities of Germany, which suffered severely. Many of the contending armies were mercenaries, and the "wolf-strategy" of plundering as they marched left cities, towns, villages, and farms ravaged. The war also saw the adoption of new military technologies and tactics, such as the musket and the "trace italienne" fortification system, which required larger armies to effectively besiege.
The Thirty Years' War ended with the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648, negotiated in the Westphalian towns of Münster and Osnabrück. The peace established the principle of Westphalian sovereignty, or non-interference in domestic affairs by outside powers. The war irrevocably changed the map of Europe, with Spain losing the Netherlands and its dominant position in Western Europe, France becoming the chief Western power, Sweden controlling the Baltic, and the United Netherlands recognised as an independent republic. The member states of the Holy Roman Empire were also granted full sovereignty.
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The Military Revolution theory
The theory has been the subject of debate among historians, with some criticizing it as misleading, exaggerated, or simplistic. Despite these criticisms, there is a general consensus that European methods of warfare underwent profound changes during the Early Modern Period. The increase in army size and its influence on the development of modern states is a crucial aspect of the Military Revolution theory. For example, Spain's army grew significantly between the late 15th century and 1625, reaching a reported strength of 300,000 regulars and 500,000 militia.
While some scholars, like Jeremy Black, challenge the specific timeframe of the Military Revolution, others, like Clifford J. Rogers, propose the idea of successive military revolutions. Rogers identifies five distinct revolutions: an infantry revolution in the 14th century, an artillery revolution in the 15th, a fortifications revolution in the 16th, a fire weapons revolution between 1580 and 1630, and an increase in the size of European armies between 1650 and 1715. Geoffrey Parker extends the period of the Military Revolution from 1450 to 1800, coinciding with Europeans' achievement of global supremacy.
The theory of a Military Revolution based on technology has evolved to emphasize the role of organization, command and control, logistics, and other non-material improvements. Some historians challenge the notion of a Military Revolution in the Early Modern Period, arguing that it fails to explain the military developments and the hegemonic rise of the West. Frank Jacob and Gilmar Visoni-Alonzo critique the concept as a Eurocentric myth, highlighting that conquests of Mexico and Peru occurred without the technology or tactics typically associated with the Military Revolution, while non-Western powers like Japan, Korea, and the Ottoman Empire successfully adopted Western military approaches.
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The July Crisis
The assassination was carried out by Gavrilo Princip, a Bosnian Serb nationalist, and immediately sparked a crisis in Vienna, with the Austro-Hungarian government seeking retribution against Serbia. While Princip and his collaborators testified that they had acted independently, without Serbian government support, many in the Austro-Hungarian Empire believed that Serbia and its leaders were complicit in the killings. This belief was further fueled by circumstantial evidence suggesting that some of the assassins had received training from a Serbian military officer.
The crisis quickly escalated as Austria-Hungary, with the encouragement and support of its ally Germany, sought to use the assassination as a pretext to punish Serbia and crush its rebellious elements. On July 23, Austria-Hungary issued an ultimatum to Serbia, making harsh demands and effectively revoking Serbia's national sovereignty. Serbia surprisingly consented to almost all of the demands, but Austria-Hungary seized upon the dissent on a few minor clauses as a pretext for a formal declaration of war on July 28, 1914.
The declaration of war by Austria-Hungary set off a chain reaction of events, with Russia, France, Britain, and Italy soon becoming entangled in the conflict. Russia, bound by agreement to protect Serbia, began partial mobilization, while Germany declared war on Russia and began general mobilization with France. The British foreign minister attempted to organize a mediation conference, but this was rejected by Berlin and Vienna. By early August, most of the major European states were embroiled in hostilities, marking the beginning of World War I.
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The German government's belief in a miracle
During the post-war period, Germany faced significant challenges, including severe shortages of food, fuel, water, and housing. The occupation policymakers perpetuated these shortages by maintaining the price controls imposed by the Nazi government. Despite these obstacles, Germany experienced a remarkable economic recovery, known as the "German economic miracle" or "Wirtschaftswunder," which translates to "economic miracle" in German. This term was first used by The Times in 1950 to describe the rapid reconstruction and development of West Germany and Austria's economies after the war.
The German economic miracle was largely attributed to the efforts of Ludwig Erhard, who served as the Minister of Economics under Chancellor Konrad Adenauer. Erhard's policies, influenced by free-market economists like Walter Eucken, promoted a social market economy that combined free-market capitalism with government involvement in social policies. The implementation of these policies resulted in a lasting era of low inflation and rapid industrial growth. West Germany's economy thrived, outperforming not only East Germany but also France and the United Kingdom, despite receiving less Marshall Plan aid.
The success of the German economic miracle can be quantified by the significant growth in West Germany's economic output between 1950 and 1960, with a compound annual growth rate of nearly 8%. This growth was driven by various factors, including a culture of innovation, strong government support, and a skilled workforce. The living standards of West Germans improved significantly, with a 73% increase in the purchasing power of wages from 1950 to 1960. Additionally, the high capital investment rate, facilitated by low consumption and a small need for replacement capital investments, contributed to the country's remarkable recovery during the 1950s.
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Russian mobilisation
Facing significant losses, Russia needed to replenish its forces, leading to the mobilisation of approximately 300,000 reservists, including students and cadets, as well as forced mobilisation in occupied territories. This partial mobilisation caused an information boom and sparked concerns about the growing need for manpower. By early autumn 2022, it became evident that volunteers and residents of occupied Ukrainian territories were insufficient to meet the demands of the war.
To address manpower challenges, Russia has employed various strategies. They have offered greater financial incentives for new recruits and generous compensation for the families of those killed in action. Additionally, Russia has been accused of targeting vulnerable populations within its borders, including migrants and inmates, and pressuring them to join the military. The Kremlin has also been criticised for its recruitment efforts in low-income countries, with some claiming that their tactics amount to human trafficking.
The mobilisation efforts have had mixed reactions among Russians. Polls conducted after Vladimir Putin's announcement in September 2022 revealed a range of emotions, including anxiety, fear, shock, anger, and pride. There have also been allegations of disproportionate mobilisation from ethnic minorities. Some analysts and diplomats viewed the mobilisation as a sign of Russia's failure in the war and a step towards escalation, indicating panic in the Russian leadership.
Amidst these developments, the Biden administration and other Western diplomats have actively pursued diplomacy to contain the conflict, minimise civilian casualties, and achieve a ceasefire. However, the success of these efforts remains uncertain as the war continues to inflict devastating consequences on Ukraine and the world.
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Frequently asked questions
The 'When Diplomacy Fails' podcast examines how wars broke out, how they were concluded, and their consequences. It covers the juicy diplomacy, fascinating characters, and incredible drama that led to some of history's most destructive conflicts.
Some of the topics covered include the Thirty Years War, the Military Revolution theory, the July Crisis, and the Age of Bismarck.
The 'When Diplomacy Fails' podcast is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and Podbean.
