Simone Lawson
Diplomacy has failed many times throughout history, and it is important to understand why and how it failed to resolve conflicts. One of the most well-known examples of failed diplomacy is the lead-up to World War I, a time of rapid globalisation, shifting power balances, rising nationalism, socioeconomic stress, and transformative military technologies. More recently, diplomacy failed to prevent Russia's invasion of Ukraine, despite the efforts of Western diplomats. Other examples include the Arab-Israeli conflict, the North Korean and Iranian nuclear issues, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the Syrian and Libyan refugee crises.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Unforeseen events | Balkans, North Korean and Iranian nuclear issues, Israel-Palestine, 9/11, conflict with militant Islam, regime change in Iraq, Russo-Georgian war, Arab uprisings, collapse of Sykes-Picot, Ukraine crisis |
| Inability to prevent war | World War I, Six-Day War, Arab-Israeli conflict, Vietnam War, Iraq War, Afghanistan War, Syrian Civil War, Libyan Civil War, Russo-Ukrainian War |
| Inadequate preparation | Failure to seize opportunities, Inability to avert war, Lack of coordination |
| Socioeconomic factors | High tariffs, socioeconomic stress |
| Military factors | Overreliance on military intervention, Inadequate military support, Military overreach |
| Political factors | Shifting power balances, Rising nationalisms, Religious politics, Inconsistent commitments |
| Financial factors | Inability to pay debts, High reparations payments |
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What You'll Learn
Failures of diplomacy in the Middle East
The Middle East has been a centre of world affairs for centuries, owing to its economic, political, cultural, and religious significance. The region has been a focal point for great power competition, with each power seeking to advance its interests. As a result, diplomacy in the Middle East has often been complex and challenging, with a history of failures.
One example of failed diplomacy in the Middle East is the US's approach to the region. While the US did not cause all the problems, its response to regional events has been mixed. For instance, during the 1991 Gulf War, President George H.W. Bush successfully employed diplomacy and military power, creating opportunities for the region. However, in recent years, American leadership has become more distant, and its diplomatic efforts have been criticised as passive and ineffective. The Trump administration, in particular, has been characterised by a combination of military activism and diplomatic passivity, contributing to regional instability.
The complex dynamics within the Middle East have also hindered diplomatic efforts. The region is marked by intra-state and inter-state conflicts, with rival factions and governance challenges exacerbating security issues. For instance, the conflict in Yemen has involved multiple actors, including the Houthis, the Yemeni government, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, each with their own interests and strategies. A United Nations-brokered truce in Yemen collapsed when the warring sides failed to agree on conditions for an extension, illustrating the challenges of achieving sustainable peace through diplomacy in the region.
Additionally, the Middle East has been impacted by shifting power balances and the involvement of external actors. For example, Russia under Putin has adopted a more aggressive and interventionist approach in the region, pursuing its geostrategic interests. The Gulf countries' security concerns and tensions with Iran have also influenced diplomatic efforts. While there have been attempts to pursue diplomacy with Iran, reducing tensions and securing vital waterways remain challenging.
Overall, the failures of diplomacy in the Middle East can be attributed to various factors, including great power competition, complex intra-state and inter-state conflicts, shifting power balances, and the involvement of external actors. These dynamics have often hindered sustainable peace and stability in the region.
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The Six-Day War
In late May 1967, Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser expelled a United Nations peacekeeping force that had been in place since 1956, when Israel attacked Egypt in a secret agreement with Britain and France. Nasser also closed the Straits of Tiran to Israel, blocking their access to the Suez Canal and the Red Sea. This was a significant issue for Israel, and the UN attempted to negotiate a solution, but to no avail. Soviet intelligence reports further escalated tensions by claiming that Israel was planning a military campaign against Syria, which was later proven to be inaccurate.
On June 5, 1967, after 22 days of vigorous diplomacy, Israel launched a preemptive strike against Egypt and Syria, marking the beginning of the Six-Day War. Israel's air assault was followed by a ground offensive in the Sinai Peninsula, the Golan Heights, the Gaza Strip, and the West Bank, capturing these territories. The Arab air forces suffered massive losses, and Egypt's radio falsely claimed an Egyptian victory, stating that 70 Israeli planes had been downed on the first day of fighting.
The war ended after six days, with Israel in control of the Sinai Peninsula, the Golan Heights, the Gaza Strip, and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem. The Sinai Peninsula was later returned to Egypt, while the Golan Heights and East Jerusalem were formally annexed by Israel. The outcome of the war had a significant impact on the region, with Israel becoming an occupier and the number of Palestinian refugees increasing.
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The Russo-Georgian War
The roots of the conflict can be traced back to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. During this period, Georgia and Russia both gained independence, and two regions within Georgia—South Ossetia and Abkhazia—sought to declare their own independence, leading to civil war. South Ossetia, populated by an ethnically distinct minority group, engaged in an armed struggle for secession against Georgia from 1989 to 1992, with political and military support from Russia. Abkhazia, on the other hand, waged a war against Georgia from 1992 to 1993, resulting in the Sukhumi Massacre.
In the years leading up to the 2008 war, tensions between Georgia and Russia escalated. Georgia's election of pro-Western President Mikheil Saakashvili in 2004 and its participation in the U.S.-led coalition in the Iraq War in 2003 were seen by Russia as attempts by Georgia to break out of its sphere of influence. Russia began enforcing a visa regime on Georgia and allocating Russian passports to residents of Abkhazia and South Ossetia without Georgia's permission, laying the foundation for its future claims to these territories.
The immediate catalyst for the war was the deployment of Georgian troops into South Ossetia, with the aim of recapturing its capital, Tskhinvali, and reintegrating the region into Georgia. Russia came to the defense of South Ossetia, resulting in a five-day conflict that ended with Russian troops within striking distance of Tbilisi, Georgia's capital. Russia's aggressive reaction signaled its reemergence as a military power and its determination to maintain its influence in the region.
The war had significant geopolitical implications. It marked an important transition in international politics, heralding the return of great-power politics and the end of the post-Cold War era. The conflict also set a precedent for Russia's dealings with other former Soviet republics, such as Ukraine, and raised questions about the effectiveness of diplomatic efforts and the international community's response to the crisis.
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The Arab Uprisings
The Arab Spring is widely believed to have been instigated by dissatisfaction, particularly among the youth and unions, with the rule of local governments. Other factors contributing to the protests included issues such as reform, human rights violations, political corruption, economic decline, unemployment, and extreme poverty. The use of social media and digital technologies played a significant role in the movement, allowing citizens to organize and spread awareness despite state-controlled media channels.
The impact of the Arab Spring was mixed. In Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen, rulers were forced from power, while civil uprisings erupted in Bahrain and Syria. However, the protest movements were met with violent crackdowns in some countries, and not every country saw success. In Bahrain, for example, the protests were violently suppressed by security forces, and dozens of accused protest leaders were imprisoned.
The Arab Spring caused the "biggest transformation of the Middle East since decolonization". It led to the fall of long-standing rulers and challenged the power of entrenched authoritarian regimes. However, it also led to periods of uncertainty and confusion, as seen in Yemen, where President Ali Abdullah Saleh left the country for medical treatment only to return unexpectedly, adding to the uncertainty about the country's political future.
The uprisings also had broader geopolitical implications. The instability in the region threatened to ignite an already tense situation, and the political fragmentation of the Arab countries prevented them from forming a united front. The United States, in particular, faced diplomatic challenges, as its support for Israel and its handling of the Palestinian cause sparked unanimous rejection in the Arab world and risked isolating the country internationally.
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The Ukraine Crisis
The conflict has resulted in a massive humanitarian crisis, with essential services and infrastructure being targeted. Hospitals have been hit by missiles, and supermarket shelves have been emptied, leading to a food crisis not only in Ukraine but also globally. Ukraine and Russia are together known as one of the world's largest "breadbaskets," producing about 30% of the world's wheat and barley. With exports from both countries halted at the onset of the war, an additional 19 to 24 million people are estimated to be pushed into food insecurity this year.
The crisis has also caused significant displacement, with 2 million Ukrainians fleeing their homes in the initial weeks, seeking refuge in other parts of the country or in neighbouring nations. The conflict has had far-reaching economic consequences, with inflation and supply shortages affecting not just Eastern Europe but the world.
Diplomacy, in this case, has been challenging due to the involvement of global powers with differing interests. The crisis has highlighted the complexities of international relations and the limitations of diplomatic efforts in the face of competing geopolitical ambitions. The Ukraine Crisis serves as a stark reminder of the need for effective diplomacy and the potential consequences when it fails.
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Frequently asked questions
There are several instances where diplomacy has failed in the past, including:
- The United States' efforts to prevent Russian invasion of Ukraine.
- The Six-Day War and the Arab-Israeli conflict.
- The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, which led to a loss of lives and a rise in anti-American sentiment.
- World War I.
- The Ukraine crisis and the ever-intensifying conflict with militant Islam.
There are several factors that contributed to the failure of diplomacy in these instances, including:
- Geopolitical complexities, such as the United States' preoccupation with Vietnam, which reduced its ability to engage in Arab-Israeli disputes.
- Slow-moving diplomatic processes, such as relying solely on the International Atomic Energy Agency to address Iran's nuclear program, can be problematic when dealing with rapidly advancing issues.
- Limitations of diplomatic efforts in the face of determined aggressors, as seen in the case of Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
- Inadequate understanding of cultural and religious dynamics, as in the case of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, where religious politics played a significant role in shaping aspirations for autonomy.
- Inconsistent commitment to diplomatic solutions, with military interventions often taking precedence.
The failures of diplomacy in these cases offer several important lessons:
- The importance of seizing diplomatic opportunities when they arise. Missing critical moments can worsen the situation.
- The need to marry objectives and means, ensuring that strategies are synchronized and swift, especially when dealing with urgent issues like nuclear proliferation.
- Recognizing the limitations of diplomacy and understanding that it may not always prevent conflicts, despite best efforts.
- Appreciating the value of diplomacy in fostering solidarity and resolving conflicts before they escalate, as seen with the "Good Neighbor Policy" during World War II.
- The necessity of unlearning counterproductive habits and reexamining assumptions about foreign affairs to enhance diplomatic capabilities.
The post-9/11 era has witnessed a shift in preferences from military intervention to diplomacy, especially among younger generations of diplomats and policymakers. This shift is influenced by the costly and inconclusive wars in the Middle East, such as those in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and Libya, which damaged U.S. credibility and stoked anti-American sentiment. There is now a convergence among political ideologies, with leaders across the spectrum advocating for an end to "endless wars." This sentiment has given rise to institutions dedicated to opposing the use of military force, reflecting a growing antipathy towards armed conflict.
To enhance diplomacy and avoid future failures, several strategies can be employed:
- Seizing diplomatic opportunities in a timely manner and acting decisively when openings arise.
- Coordinating strategies with multiple allies and international organizations to address urgent issues, such as nuclear proliferation.
- Developing a nuanced understanding of cultural and religious dynamics in conflict regions to address aspirations and grievances effectively.
- Investing in diplomatic capabilities and prioritizing diplomacy as a primary tool for resolving conflicts, rather than solely relying on military might.
- Learning from historical failures and successes, adapting strategies accordingly, and continuously evaluating assumptions and approaches to foreign affairs.
