Eleanor Finch
In 2024, Donald Trump won the national popular vote for the first time, defeating Kamala Harris by 1.5 percentage points. Trump's voter base was more racially and ethnically diverse than in 2016 or 2020, with gains among Hispanic, Black, and Asian voters. While the composition of Trump's voter base has evolved, one consistent characteristic of his supporters is their religious affiliation. White evangelicals have been a key part of Trump's base, with nearly four in five white evangelical voters casting their ballots for him in 2016. In addition, Trump's support among baby boomers has been a vital pillar of his political foundation, with 51% of this demographic voting for him in 2024.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| White evangelicals | 76% |
| White rural voters | 60% |
| Non-college white voters | 60% |
| Baby boomers | 51% |
| Men | 55% |
| Men under 50 | 49% |
| Hispanic voters | 48% |
| Black voters | 15% |
| Asian voters | 40% |
| Naturalized citizens | 47% |
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White evangelicals
Trump actively courted the white evangelical vote, embracing anti-choice rhetoric, selecting Mike Pence as his Vice President, and promising to appoint culturally conservative Supreme Court justices. He also offered specific policy reforms, such as repealing the Johnson Amendment. These moves were designed to appeal to white evangelicals, who often identify as born again and prioritize cultural and religious issues.
The impact of evangelical support for Trump is significant. Data shows that being an evangelical increases the chance a white person will vote for Trump by nearly 40 percentage points. This is a substantial margin and highlights the importance of this demographic in Trump's electoral strategy.
While Trump's support among white evangelicals remains strong, there have been shifts in his overall voter base. In his 2024 victory, Trump's coalition was more racially and ethnically diverse than in 2020 or 2016. He made gains among Hispanic, Black, and Asian voters, narrowing the margin with his opponent, Kamala Harris, in these demographics.
However, Trump's approval ratings have fluctuated among different age groups. While baby boomers were critical to his 2024 win, with 51% of that age group voting for him, his support among younger Americans has declined. Additionally, recent policy decisions, such as the "Big Beautiful Bill," which includes significant cuts to healthcare spending, may impact his standing with older voters, as it is estimated to result in millions losing their Medicaid health insurance.
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White men
Trump's appeal to white men has been a notable aspect of his political base. In the 2016 election, 54% of white male voters supported Trump, contributing to his victory. The 2024 election saw a further shift towards Trump among this demographic. While men under 50 were closely divided in their support for Trump and his opponent, Harris, in 2020, they favoured Trump by a significant margin in 2024. This shift was part of a broader trend of increasing support for Trump among men, particularly those under 50.
The characteristics of non-college status and evangelical beliefs are often associated with white male voters who support Trump. The non-college share of the electorate is larger among white voters, and Trump has found significant support among this group. Additionally, white evangelicals have been a reliable base for Trump, with his embrace of culturally conservative policies and rhetoric resonating strongly with this demographic.
Trump's history of derogatory comments about women and sexual assault allegations may have influenced the partisan gender gap during his presidency. However, his support among white men remained relatively stable, indicating a complex interplay of factors influencing voting behaviour.
While Trump's approval ratings have fluctuated among younger Americans and some key groups, he has consistently found support among white men, particularly those over 65 (baby boomers). This enduring appeal among older conservatives, including baby boomers, has been a vital pillar of his political base, contributing to his electoral victories.
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Baby boomers
Trump's support among baby boomers has been described as one of his most dependable voting blocs. However, his approval ratings among this group have fluctuated. In March 2025, his approval rating among baby boomers declined, with concerns about cuts to safety net programs such as Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security potentially contributing to this shift. Inflation and prices were also issues where Trump's approval rating among older Americans took a hit.
By July 2025, Trump's approval rating among baby boomers rebounded sharply. A Quantus Insights poll showed a boost in boomer support, with Trump's approval rating among over-65s at 56% approve and 41% disapprove, a significant turnaround from the previous month's even split of 49% approve and 49% disapprove.
Trump's ""Big Beautiful Bill," passed by Congress, could potentially impact his standing with baby boomers. The bill includes cuts of approximately $1.1 trillion in healthcare spending, resulting in an estimated 11.8 million people losing Medicaid health insurance over a decade. As Medicaid is the single largest payer for long-term services and support in the country, with over 60% of nursing home residents depending on it, the bill's impact on baby boomer support for Trump remains to be seen.
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Rural voters
In 2016, Donald Trump won the US presidential election by securing a large share of the rural vote. In 2020, his margin of victory in rural areas was even greater. Trump's greatest support came from white, working-class counties. Generally, as counties become more rural and isolated, the greater the proportion of votes for Trump. In over half of the Category 9 counties, more than 75% of voters supported Trump. In 49 counties, nearly all non-metropolitan, Trump received over 90% of the vote. In Roberts County, Texas, Trump got 529 votes to Biden's 17; in Borden County, Texas, Trump won 397 to 16; and in Garfield County, Montana, Trump's margin of victory was 764 to 41.
However, Trump's victory in 2020 was a result of higher voter turnout in these rural areas, as urban areas saw a much higher voter turnout, with a larger share of these urban voters casting their ballot for Biden. Trump's complete domination of rural America in 2020 was not enough to offset the changes that occurred in the cities. In the three categories of metropolitan counties, Clinton beat Trump by 9.2 million votes in 2016; in 2020, Biden defeated Trump by 14.2 million votes in these counties.
Rural youth also preferred Trump to Biden, but by a much narrower margin. Young voters in urban areas backed Biden, 74% to 24%youth in suburban areas by 65% to 32%
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Non-college voters
In 2024, Donald Trump won the US presidential election by 1.5 percentage points, marking the first time he won the national popular vote. Trump's victory was attributed to a more racially and ethnically diverse voter base compared to previous elections. Notably, Trump made gains among men, particularly those under 50, with a 12-point advantage over his opponent, Kamala Harris.
Among non-college voters, Trump maintained a strong showing, continuing a pattern evident in his previous campaigns. In 2024, Trump held a 14-point advantage among this group, with 56% supporting him compared to 42% for Harris. This margin had doubled since 2016, highlighting a growing educational divide in voting preferences.
The support from non-college voters played a crucial role in Trump's victory. This group, often referred to as the "working class," has long been a key demographic in US elections, despite constituting a minority among wage earners. While Trump's support among non-college voters was significant, it is worth noting that other Republican candidates have also performed well within this demographic in recent years.
Trump's appeal to non-college voters can be attributed to various factors. Firstly, there is an increasing "educational polarization" between college-educated and non-college-educated whites, with the latter increasingly gravitating towards the Republican Party. This polarization may be more pronounced among working-class white evangelicals, a group that has consistently supported Trump. In 2020, 84% of working-class white evangelicals voted for Trump, a slight increase from 2016.
Additionally, Trump's messaging and campaign strategies likely resonated with non-college voters. His use of religious references and appeal to working-class values may have influenced their voting preferences. Trump's ability to maintain and expand his base among non-college voters, particularly in key states, contributed to his success in the 2024 election.
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Frequently asked questions
It is difficult to determine the exact percentage of the US population that constitutes Trump's base, as this is subject to change over time and varies across different demographics. However, certain characteristics are more prevalent among his supporters. For instance, in 2016, nearly four in five white evangelical voters supported Trump, with 61% net support. In 2024, Trump's victory was attributed to a more racially and ethnically diverse voter coalition. He gained support among Hispanic voters (48%), Black voters (15%), and Asian voters (40%). Trump's base also includes men, particularly those under 50, and baby boomers, with 56% approval among over-65s.
The characteristic most predictive of a white person voting for Trump is their evangelical status. Being an evangelical increases the likelihood of a white person voting for Trump by nearly 40 percentage points. The next closest factor is non-college status, which has an effect of about 20 percentage points.
Trump's base has demonstrated fluctuations in its composition over time. For instance, in 2024, he attracted a more racially and ethnically diverse voter coalition compared to 2020 and 2016. Additionally, Trump made gains among men, particularly those under 50, while experiencing a decline in support among younger Americans. Trump's standing with baby boomers has also shown variability, with his approval rating fluctuating from 49% to 56% in a matter of weeks.
