Malcolm Rivera
The Baltic Sea is an arm of the Atlantic Ocean, enclosed by Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Russia, Sweden, and the North and Central European Plain regions. It is of vital importance to Poland's foreign policy and has been the focus of geopolitical interest and conflict, particularly in the context of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. The Baltic Sea region has a rich history and enormous development potential, making it a key area of diplomatic concern for several countries.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Countries enclosed by the Baltic Sea | Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Russia, Sweden, and the North and Central European Plain regions |
| Latitude | 53°N to 66°N |
| Longitude | 10°E to 30°E |
| Area | 149,000 square miles (386,000 square km) |
| Temperature | Annual average of around 9–10 °C (48–50 °F) |
| Climate | Maritime climates in offshore locations, lower latitudes, and islands; continental climates adjacent to the water |
| Impact of Climate Change | May turn from a carbon sink to a source of CO2 and methane due to pollution from agriculture and forestry |
| Geopolitical Significance | NATO and the United States face the challenge of preparing for naval warfare with Russia; Finland and Sweden's recent accession to NATO has renewed focus on the strategic situation in the Baltic Sea |
| Military Significance | The Baltic Sea provided a strategic military gateway for advancing behind the Iron Curtain during the Cold War |
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What You'll Learn
Finland and Sweden joining NATO
Finland and Sweden's decision to abandon their long-held neutrality and join NATO is a significant development in the geopolitics of the Baltic Sea region. The Baltic Sea, an arm of the Atlantic Ocean, is enclosed by nine countries, including Finland and Sweden, and has historically been a strategic gateway for military powers. With Finland and Sweden joining NATO, the alliance's influence over the Baltic Sea region extends further, impacting the security dynamics in Northern Europe.
For decades during the Cold War and after, Finland and Sweden maintained their neutrality and were disinterested in NATO membership. Finland's neutrality was imposed by the Soviet Union as a condition of peace, while Sweden's neutrality allowed it to position itself as an international mediator. However, Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 shattered the sense of stability in the region, leading Finland and Sweden to reevaluate their security strategies.
The decision by Finland and Sweden to join NATO is driven by their desire for security guarantees against potential Russian aggression. Both countries border Russia and have recognized the changed security landscape in Europe. By joining NATO, they will benefit from the collective security provided by the alliance, including nuclear deterrence under NATO's Article 5. This shift in alliances, however, has raised concerns about provoking Russia and potentially escalating tensions in the region.
The expansion of NATO through the addition of Finland and Sweden has both strategic and symbolic significance. Strategically, it extends NATO's border with Russia and brings modern capabilities that enhance the alliance's defense posture. Symbolically, it signals a shift in Europe's security architecture and underscores the unity of Western nations in countering Russian aggression. However, managing the concerns of all NATO allies and maintaining consensus during the accession process has been challenging, as evidenced by the delays in Sweden's membership approval.
Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO highlights the evolving nature of alliances and the complex geopolitical dynamics in the Baltic Sea region. It remains to be seen how Russia will respond in the long term, but the expansion of NATO's presence along its borders is likely to influence its strategic calculations and relationships with neighboring countries. The Baltic Sea, with its critical maritime infrastructure and geostrategic importance, will continue to be a focal point of geopolitical interest and competition among regional powers.
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Russia-Ukraine conflict
The Baltic Sea, an arm of the Atlantic Ocean, is enclosed by Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Russia, Sweden, and the North and Central European Plain regions. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Baltic Sea has become a focal point of geopolitical conflict and interest. This is due to its strategic importance as a maritime gateway for the Russian fleet, with bases near St. Petersburg and in the Kaliningrad exclave.
In response to the war in Ukraine and heightened Russian naval activity in the Baltic Sea, littoral states have placed their militaries on high alert. NATO has also increased its presence in the region, demonstrating its commitment to calming its Baltic allies. The Baltic Sea is now largely under NATO's control, with Poland, the three Baltic republics, and soon Finland and Sweden as members. This expansion of NATO's influence in the region complicates a vital transit route for the Russian navy and limits Russia's access to the Baltic Sea.
The Swedish military analyst has argued that the conflict between Russia and the West has ripple effects in the Baltic Sea and even further north in the Arctic. This tension has resulted in increased military mobilization by both sides in the region. Russia has conducted extensive marine exercises in the Baltic Sea, while Sweden has reinforced its military presence on Gotland. Additionally, there have been reports of border violations by Russia along the Estonian and Polish borders, with Russian military aircraft, warships, and misdirected projectiles entering their airspace.
The conflict has also impacted energy and trade routes in the region. The attacks on Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, which supply natural gas from Russia to Europe, have disrupted critical energy infrastructure. The dependence of Western states in the Baltic Sea region on fossil resources and secure trade routes has been highlighted by the war in Ukraine. The disruption of global grain supplies due to the conflict has further impacted trade in the Baltic Sea, as it is a crucial maritime route for grain transportation.
The Baltic Sea has become a significant field of tension in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with both sides mobilizing their militaries and engaging in acts of sabotage and hybrid activities. NATO's increased control of the Baltic Sea through its expanding membership has limited Russia's strategic advantage in the region. The conflict has also impacted energy and trade routes, with disruptions to critical energy infrastructure and global grain supplies.
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Economic interdependencies
The Baltic Sea is an arm of the Atlantic Ocean, enclosed by nine countries: Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Russia, and Sweden. It is a semi-enclosed, relatively shallow sea with a catchment area drained by rivers that is about four times larger than the sea itself.
The Baltic Sea is of significant economic importance to the region. Historically, it was the economic core of the Hanseatic League, a great medieval trading group of northern European ports. Today, it remains a crucial trade route for the countries in the region. The sea is composed of the littoral states' territorial waters and their exclusive economic zones, which allow foreign vessels innocent passage during peacetime.
The Baltic Sea is accessible via three choke points, which pass through individual countries' littoral jurisdictions. The principal entrance routes are from the North Sea via the Kattegat and Skagerrak, bounded by the Danish, Norwegian, and Swedish shores. These routes proceed into the Danish Straits, including the Øresund, the Great Belt, and the Little Belt, which are tight waterways with narrow widths and depths limiting navigation.
Another important route is Germany's Kiel Canal, which was used by almost 27,000 vessels in 2023. Russia's White Sea-Baltic Canal is also strategically relevant, connecting the Unified Deep Water System of Eurasian Russia. The Kadet Trench, between the German and Danish coasts, represents a natural but significantly shallow waterway that serves as a critical shipping corridor for larger vessels.
The Baltic Sea's economic significance is further highlighted by the dependence of regional states on secure trade routes and fossil resources. For example, Russia relies on the sea lines for significant parts of its trade, transport, and to supply its Baltic enclave, Kaliningrad. The Baltic Sea states' economic interdependencies have far-reaching and transboundary impacts, affecting not only the adjacent sea but also the larger geopolitical space of which it is a part.
The region's economic interdependencies have also influenced geopolitical alliances. Finland and Sweden's recent accession to NATO has brought a renewed focus on the strategic situation in the Baltic Sea, consolidating allied defence efforts. However, Russia's persistent influence in the region remains a concern, and NATO continues to face challenges in deterring and defending against potential aggression.
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Geopolitical interests
The Baltic Sea is an arm of the Atlantic Ocean, enclosed by nine countries: Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Russia, and Sweden. It is a semi-enclosed and relatively shallow sea, stretching from 53°N to 66°N latitude and from 10°E to 30°E longitude. The Baltic Sea has been a strategic military gateway and a zone of great power rivalry. Its geopolitical interests are shaped by historical experiences, economic interdependencies, and the pursuit of self-interests through political, economic, and military instruments.
During the Cold War, the Baltic Sea was a potential frontline of military escalation between the Warsaw Pact and NATO. The Soviet Union, along with Poland and East Germany, held maritime advantages, while NATO focused on controlling the Baltic Sea approaches up to the Danish Straits. The Baltic Sea region's geopolitical interests were influenced by the strategic importance attached to it by both blocs.
Today, the Baltic Sea remains a focus of geopolitical interest and conflict, particularly in the context of the Russian war in Ukraine. Finland and Sweden's recent accession to NATO has altered the strategic situation in the Baltic Sea, challenging Russia's influence in the region. NATO allies, including littoral states, have heightened their military readiness and are navigating disputes over force dispositions, structures, and leadership roles. The Baltic Sea's shallow waters and critical maritime infrastructure are crucial considerations in these geopolitical dynamics.
Russia's continued presence in the Baltic Sea and its dependence on the same sea lines for trade, transport, and supplying its Baltic enclave, Kaliningrad, add complexity to the geopolitical interests in the region. NATO and the United States face the challenge of preparing for both defensive and offensive naval warfare, requiring expertise in the distinctive features of the Baltic Sea. The Baltic Sea's geopolitical interests are further shaped by the need to deter and defend against potential acts of sabotage, such as the reported sabotage of undersea cables by Russia.
The Baltic Sea's geopolitical interests are also influenced by its peripheral location regarding Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Reinforcements through the sea are vital for these countries' defense, highlighting the interconnectedness of the region's security. Additionally, the Baltic Sea's economic significance, particularly as the historical economic core of the Hanseatic League, contributes to its geopolitical interests. Climate change and pollution impacts on the Baltic Sea ecosystem further underscore the region's geopolitical importance, with potential consequences for carbon emissions.
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Military escalations
The Baltic Sea has been a site of military escalation, particularly between NATO and the Warsaw Pact during the Cold War. The Soviet Union, along with Poland and East Germany, held a numerical advantage in maritime power, including submarines, destroyers, corvettes, and amphibious assets. In response, NATO focused on controlling the Baltic Sea approaches up to the Danish Straits, employing missile speedboats, minesweepers, submarines, coastal batteries, and combat aircraft.
In recent years, the Baltic Sea region has witnessed renewed tensions and military escalations, primarily driven by Russia's aggression against Ukraine and its naval activities in the Baltic Sea. This has prompted littoral states to heighten their military readiness. The Baltic Sea is now a focal point of geopolitical interest and conflict, with an increase in hybrid activities, including acts of sabotage and the use of unidentified drones.
The admission of Finland and Sweden into NATO will significantly impact the alliance's Baltic strategy. Finland's air force, with its F-35As, can strike and block maritime targets within the Gulf of Finland, while Sweden's submarine-backed naval force is specialized for shallow Baltic conditions. This enhances NATO's offensive and defensive capabilities in the region.
Russia, increasingly paranoid about NATO's intentions, is likely to push back, potentially escalating tensions and employing hybrid tactics, including acts of sabotage. The Baltic Sea is crucial for Russia's economy, with ports like St. Petersburg and Primorsk facilitating oil exports and imports of consumer goods. Russia's Baltic fleet, nuclear weapons, and energy and telecommunications infrastructure in the Kaliningrad exclave further highlight the region's strategic importance.
Undersea cable-cutting incidents and suspected gray-zone aggression, potentially involving Russia and its partners, have raised concerns among Baltic Sea nations. These incidents, including damage to telecommunication and energy infrastructure, have accelerated responses from European countries, who are improving their deterrence and defense capabilities. The US, for instance, is deploying more weapons systems and expanding bilateral cooperation in the region.
In summary, the Baltic Sea has been a site of military escalation, with a complex interplay between NATO, its allies, and Russia. The recent admission of Finland and Sweden into NATO, coupled with Russia's aggression against Ukraine, has heightened tensions and escalated military posturing in the region.
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Frequently asked questions
The Baltic Sea is an arm of the Atlantic Ocean that is enclosed by Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Russia, Sweden, and the North and Central European Plain regions.
The Baltic Sea region is of vital importance to Poland's foreign policy. The region has been characterised by increasing tension between Russia and the West, with countries in the region taking opposing stances on issues such as sanctions against Russia and the events in Ukraine.
Gunboat diplomacy refers to the increasing Russian military capabilities in the Baltic Sea region and the potential implications for Russia's neighbours, including Sweden and Finland, as well as NATO and the EU.
The Baltic Sea is the world's largest brackish inland water body, with lower salinity levels than the world's oceans due to the inflow of freshwater from the surrounding land. Climate change and pollution from agriculture and forestry are major concerns for the Baltic Sea ecosystem, with potential impacts on its carbon sink function.
