Omar Bennett
China's grand strategy is a topic of intense debate. Since the late 1970s, China's stature in the international political power structure has been rising, and its rise may cause a dramatic power transition within the international system. China's strategy has a broadly defined arc that the United States should address with a strategy of competitive coexistence to safeguard American interests sustainably amid increasing Chinese assertiveness. China's strategy includes specific objectives regarding economic growth, regional and global leadership, and control over claimed territory, which often brings it into competition with the United States and its allies. China's leaders recognize this and prioritize managing the relationship and gaining competitive advantages. By 2050, China will likely have experienced a mix of successes and failures, and its future trajectory will depend on various factors, including its ability to manage domestic challenges and its relationship with the United States.
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What You'll Learn
China's 'calculative strategy' to protect itself from external threats
China's calculative strategy is a hybrid strategy that aims to protect the country from external threats while it pursues its geopolitical ascent. This strategy allows China to focus on reforming its economy and acquiring comprehensive national power without the distractions of security competition. The purpose is to create breathing room for China to improve domestic social conditions, increase the legitimacy of its governing regime, expand its economic and technological capabilities, strengthen its military, and enhance its standing in the international political order.
A key aspect of China's calculative strategy is foreign collaboration, which helps underwrite its rise to power. By temporarily removing external threats, Beijing can focus on its uninterrupted ascent. This strategy is designed to increase China's power in a non-provocative manner, avoiding distractions and impediments to its progress. The success of this strategy will determine whether China becomes ascendant or stagnant by 2050.
China's grand strategy has specific objectives, including economic growth, regional and global leadership, and control over claimed territories. These objectives often bring China into competition and potential conflict with the United States and its allies. China seeks to manage this relationship, gain competitive advantages, and resolve threats without derailing its strategic economic objectives. China's rise to power and its move towards assertiveness are not assured, and US policymakers face the challenge of devising policies to influence China's behaviour during this calculative strategy phase.
China's strategy also involves expanding its global presence and influence, taking advantage of the perceived decline of the Western-led liberal order. China's Belt and Road Initiative, for example, offers economic opportunities to host countries while potentially masking military intentions. China's naval activity, including its aircraft carrier programme, plays a significant role in projecting its maritime power. Additionally, China's military strategy includes a focus on coastal defence and the South China Sea, with a history of confrontations with neighbouring countries like Vietnam and Japan.
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China's military strategy and its implications
China's military strategy is a key component of its grand strategy. China's military strategy has evolved over time, from Mao's 1964 strategy of "luring the enemy in deep" to the 1988 focus on the southern coastline and the South China Sea. China's current military strategy is shaped by its geopolitical aspirations, economic growth, and technological advancements.
One of the key implications of China's military strategy is its focus on coastal defense and maritime power projection. China has engaged in significant infrastructure development through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has been crucial in projecting Chinese maritime power. This has led to confrontations with neighbouring countries, such as Japan, over territorial waters. China's naval activity is supported by its civilian and military narratives, including humanitarian and disaster relief efforts.
Additionally, China has been enhancing its military capabilities, particularly in missile technologies. China is a world leader in most missile technologies, possessing the first anti-ship ballistic missile, impressive air-to-air missile range, and the largest stockpile of conventional cruise and ballistic missiles. These advancements have significant implications for regional stability and the balance of power.
China's military strategy also involves strengthening its cyber capabilities and space assets. China recognises the importance of cyber and space domains in modern warfare and is investing in developing its capabilities in these areas. This has raised concerns among other nations, particularly the United States, about the potential implications for cyber and space security.
The implications of China's military strategy extend beyond the military realm. China's economic policies are closely intertwined with its military objectives. For example, China's housing bust has been redirected towards industrial policy efforts, boosting competitiveness and freeing up credit for other sectors. China's long-term strategic advantage is supported by factors such as infrastructure investment, weapons systems, and manufactured goods.
In conclusion, China's military strategy has significant implications for the region and beyond. It indicates a shift in global power dynamics and requires a response from other major powers, particularly the United States. China's military advancements and strategic calculations shape the international order and influence the policies and actions of other nations. The balance of power and the potential for conflict are key considerations in understanding the implications of China's military strategy.
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China's economic strategy and its implications
China's economic strategy is a key component of its grand strategy. China's economic goals include achieving economic growth and becoming a global leader in the evolving economic architecture. To achieve these goals, China has implemented a "calculative" strategy, which aims to protect the country from external threats while pursuing its geopolitical ascent. This strategy allows China to focus on reforming its economy and acquiring comprehensive national power without the distractions of security competition.
One of the key tools of China's economic strategy is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which offers connectivity and economic opportunities to host countries. While the BRI provides economic benefits, it has also been viewed as a way for China to expand its global presence and project its maritime power. China's economic strategy also involves focusing on different goals than its competitors. For example, Chinese firms often run losses to gain market share and put rivals out of business.
The implications of China's economic strategy are significant. If successful, it will enable China to increase its power and influence in the international political order. China's economic growth could also challenge the US role as the region's preeminent security provider and lead to a dramatic power transition within the international system. By 2050, China is likely to experience a mixture of successes and failures in implementing its grand strategy. If China becomes ascendant, it will be largely successful in achieving its long-term goals, including economic growth and global leadership.
However, there are also potential challenges and implications for China's economic strategy. China's household, corporate, and government debt are at record levels, which could impact its economic growth. Additionally, there is a risk of increased instability and uncertainty within China due to elite policy differences and internal power struggles. If China's calculative strategy is not knocked off course by a catastrophic event, it is likely to guide the country's actions for the next few decades. The United States and other countries should prepare for a less stable China that may lash out externally.
Overall, China's economic strategy is an important aspect of its grand strategy, with potential implications for the country's power and influence on the world stage. The success or failure of this strategy will have consequences for both China and the international system, particularly in relation to the US-China rivalry.
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China's geopolitical ascent and its impact
China's geopolitical ascent and its global impact are closely tied to its grand strategy, which has been a topic of much discussion and analysis. China's stature in the international political power structure has been rising since the late 1970s, largely due to market reforms initiated by Deng Xiaoping. This ascent has significant implications for the global balance of power and the existing world order.
China's grand strategy is shaped by its economic growth, regional and global leadership aspirations, and control over claimed territories. Its economic rise is central to its strategy, with Beijing utilising its economic power to increase its global influence and expand its global presence. This is evident in initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, which provides connectivity and economic opportunities to host countries while also projecting Chinese maritime power. China's economic strategy also involves running losses to gain market share and put rivals out of business, demonstrating a long-term focus.
The country's geopolitical ascent is also driven by its pursuit of military power and technological advancements. China has made significant investments in its military capabilities, including aircraft carriers, missile technologies, and initiatives like the externalisation of its coastal defence posture in the South China Sea. These advancements have important implications for the region and global power dynamics, especially in relation to the United States and its allies.
China's grand strategy has sparked intense debates and concerns among scholars and policymakers in the United States and its allies. There is a recognition that the actions and relations between the United States and China will shape the world in the coming decades. Analysts and policymakers are grappling with understanding China's ambitions and strategies to formulate effective responses. Some argue that the United States risks overestimating its unilateral power and underestimating China's capabilities.
The impact of China's geopolitical ascent is already being felt globally. China's increasing influence challenges the United States' role as the region's preeminent security provider and may lead to a dramatic power transition within the international system. China's rise has also contributed to a perception of American decline, particularly with the election of Donald Trump, which some argue has weakened the Western-led liberal order. Managing China's rise and its impact on the global order is a critical challenge for the United States and its allies in the coming decades.
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China's grand strategy and its rivalry with the United States
China's grand strategy is a "'calculative' strategy" that aims to protect China from external threats as it rises in power. This strategy allows China to continue reforming its economy and acquiring comprehensive national power without the distractions of security competition. China's stature in the international political power structure has been rising since the late 1970s, largely due to market reforms. If China's rise is successful, it could challenge the US's role as the region's preeminent security provider.
China's first strategy of displacement (1989-2008) aimed to quietly blunt American power over China, especially in Asia. The second strategy of displacement (2008-2016) sought to build the foundation for regional hegemony in Asia, as China perceived US power as diminished after the Global Financial Crisis. Now, China is launching a third strategy of displacement, expanding its efforts worldwide to displace the United States as the global leader. This strategy is in response to "'great changes unseen in a century'", including Brexit, President Trump's election, and the coronavirus pandemic.
The rivalry between the United States and China is a significant geopolitical challenge for American policymakers. As China's power grows, the US risks being overtaken technologically, deindustrialized economically, and defeated militarily. Washington must adopt a new strategy, forming alliances with other nations to offset Beijing's advantages.
US strategy should focus on attaining deeper levels of understanding, stronger mutual trust, and increased Chinese integration into the international system. At the same time, the US should prevent China from acquiring capabilities that could threaten its core national security. Defining what "success" looks like is critical for US policymakers to avoid reactive, fragmented, or dangerously escalatory approaches.
In conclusion, China's grand strategy is a long-term plan to displace American order and become a global leader. The United States, in response, must develop a coherent strategy that utilizes alliances and manages the competition to avoid an escalation of tensions.
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Frequently asked questions
China's grand strategy is to make China great again. Xi Jinping's vision, which has broad popular support, is to recapture lost glories at home and abroad, reincorporating Taiwan, and realising a variety of disputed near seas sovereignty claims.
China's grand strategy is a "calculative" strategy, calculated to protect China from external threats as it pursues its geopolitical ascent. The purpose of the calculative strategy is to allow China to continue to reform its economy and thereby acquire comprehensive national power without having to deal with the impediments and distractions of security competition.
China's grand strategy puts it in direct competition, crisis, and even potential conflict with the United States and its allies. China's strategy involves gaining competitive advantage and resolving threats emanating from competition with the United States without derailing other strategic objectives.
