Eleanor Finch
Computer simulation has changed diplomacy in many ways. The advent of social media and 24/7 news has meant that diplomats have more information to seize and act on. The use of simulations in diplomacy has allowed diplomats to step into the shoes of diplomats, use the skills of diplomacy, and seek and find solutions. AI has also helped bridge communication gaps between foreign governments and their citizens, assisting with international humanitarian operations, monitoring elections, and strengthening diplomatic missions' security. Computational diplomacy has also allowed for detailed modelling of behaviour and realistic simulations to identify factors that resulted in diplomatic breakthroughs or deadlocks.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Nature of computer simulation in diplomacy | Free simulations that present both historical and hypothetical scenarios based on real issues |
| How is it different from war games? | Players don't take turns sequentially, all players write down their moves after negotiation and then all moves are revealed and put into effect simultaneously |
| How does it work? | Social interaction and interpersonal skills are an essential part of the play |
| How has it changed diplomacy? | Democratized information and communication, increased the role of nongovernmental actors, redefined the structure and functions of diplomatic institutions |
| How can it be used? | To study diplomatic networks, use "big data" analytics to identify patterns in diplomatic successes and breakdowns, allow policymakers to experiment with alternative solutions to resolving diplomatic stalemates |
| What are the challenges? | Countering uncivil society, giving voice to civil society without abdicating responsibility to govern on behalf of all citizens' rights |
| What are the opportunities? | Bridging communication gaps between foreign governments and their citizens, assisting international humanitarian operations, monitoring elections, strengthening diplomatic missions' security |
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What You'll Learn
Computer simulations and virtual reality
Diplomacy simulations have been used in classrooms and by professionals for many years, with the first recorded instance of a Diplomacy game being played in 1954. The game was created by Allan B. Calhamer, inspired by his study of 19th-century European history and political geography at Harvard. The game has been published in the US by Games Research, Avalon Hill, and Hasbro, and has also been licensed to companies in other countries.
The game Diplomacy differs from most war games in that players do not take turns sequentially. Instead, all players secretly write down their moves after a negotiation period, then all moves are revealed and put into effect simultaneously. This aspect of the game, along with its simple combat resolution rules, makes it well-suited to postal play or play via email, which has been possible since 1983. The first computer game version of Diplomacy was released by Avalon Hill in 1984, and several other versions have been released since.
Computer simulations are now being used to teach students about diplomacy, with Model Diplomacy being a notable example. Model Diplomacy is a free simulation that presents both historical and hypothetical scenarios based on real issues, with content provided by the Council on Foreign Relations. Instructors can sign up, pick a case, and then invite students to register. Once registered, the students are assigned roles, which are sent to them automatically. The simulation can be completed in a classroom or online, either synchronously or asynchronously.
The National Museum of American Diplomacy (NMAD) has also offered diplomacy simulations virtually, with great success. In partnership with the Public Leadership Education Network (PLEN), NMAD facilitated two simulations with 40 participants through their Women in Global Policy seminar. The participants stepped into the shoes of diplomats and used diplomatic skills to find solutions, all via Zoom. NMAD is now working with Global Ties U.S. to offer facilitation training to community organizations across the country so they can bring the simulation program to their audiences virtually.
Computer simulations are also being used in computational diplomacy, which involves using data analytics to identify patterns in diplomatic successes and breakdowns, with the goal of "reverse engineering" diplomatic successes. This method of analysis has the potential to uncover unique patterns of social interactions and provide insights into the dynamics of diplomatic negotiations and their underlying mechanisms.
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The role of AI in diplomacy
AI is increasingly shaping international relations and diplomacy. AI diplomacy is a multifaceted concept that involves the impact of AI on the geopolitical environment, the topics negotiated in multilateral talks, and the tools used by diplomats.
AI tools are being used by diplomats to enhance communication, analysis, and evaluation processes. For instance, the public diplomacy section in Guinea has been using ChatGPT to draft daily media summaries for the ambassador and staff since late 2022. This has helped them save time and improve the efficiency of their work, from drafting speeches and press guidance to crafting project proposals and social media posts. The State Department has also been using AI since 2015 to score candidates' essays and assess their qualifications during the Foreign Service selection process.
AI diplomacy aims to harness the power of AI for the common good of diplomacy and humanity. It offers a path to international collaboration and the establishment of ethical norms and regulations for AI development and utilization. In November 2023, the U.S., China, and the E.U. signed a statement promising to work together to tackle the challenges posed by AI, including the dangers of misuse, such as the spread of disinformation and cybersecurity threats.
AI gives diplomats access to extensive data insights, enabling them to identify emerging trends and make more informed decisions. It also helps level the playing field by reducing the subjective factors, such as writing skills, that can influence evaluation and promotion processes. Diplomats can use AI to improve communication in diplomatic networks, coordinate initiatives, and form alliances across borders with agility and precision.
The DiploFoundation's AI Lab is at the forefront of exploring AI's impact on diplomacy, conducting research, and developing capacity. They offer courses and training activities to nurture the necessary competencies for AI diplomacy, including talents, knowledge, and skills.
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The impact of social media
Social media has significantly impacted diplomacy, with platforms like Facebook and Twitter being key factors in organising the Arab Spring uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia. The intensive use of social media has changed the way news and information are delivered, with the public now having greater access to information and playing a role in news gathering and sharing. This has resulted in a loss of control over information for governments, and diplomats have had to adapt by using social media as an additional communication channel.
Diplomacy has always adapted to technological advancements, and social media has become an important tool for communicating the positions of negotiating parties. For example, the dynamics of the Brexit negotiations were shaped by the frequent tweets of chief negotiators and other actors. Social media enables rapid changes in public opinion, and diplomats must recognise these signals early on and take them seriously.
Social media has also opened up new opportunities for diplomats to perform their functions better, such as representing their countries, negotiating, gathering information, and protecting the interests of their citizens and companies. It has enhanced communication and public diplomacy efforts, with online conferencing becoming prevalent and impacting traditional diplomatic practices.
The COVID-19 pandemic further emphasised the importance of social media in diplomacy, with the emergence of online meetings in multilateral diplomacy. Social media provided an additional source of information for diplomatic reporting, especially in environments with limited diplomatic and media access.
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The future of diplomatic institutions
Diplomacy has evolved to become more proactive, multidirectional, and innovative than ever before. This evolution has been driven by the increasing influence of science and technology on international affairs, and the challenges and opportunities presented by globalization. As a result, the structure and functions of diplomatic institutions have been redefined, with a greater emphasis on multilateral cooperation and the role of non-governmental actors.
In the future, diplomatic institutions will continue to adapt and transform in response to advancements in technology and the changing global landscape. Here are some possible ways in which diplomatic institutions may evolve:
- Increased Use of Technology: Diplomatic institutions will increasingly leverage technology to enhance their operations. This includes the use of computer simulations, big data analytics, and artificial intelligence to inform decision-making, predict outcomes, and bridge communication gaps between governments and their citizens.
- Enhanced Collaboration: Diplomatic institutions will continue to emphasize collaboration and cooperation, both among governments and with non-governmental organizations (NGOs). This collaborative approach will be essential in addressing complex global issues, such as climate change, women's empowerment, and financial crises.
- Focus on Preventive Diplomacy: Preventive diplomacy, which involves new diplomatic skills, innovative strategies, and a proactive approach to peacebuilding, will become an even more critical aspect of diplomatic institutions' work. This shift reflects a broader understanding that peace is not merely the absence of conflict but requires continuous effort to address underlying tensions and promote sustainable solutions.
- Adoption of Complex Systems Thinking: While complexity theory has been underutilized in the field of international relations, diplomatic institutions may increasingly adopt a complex systems approach. This involves viewing diplomatic interactions as complex adaptive systems, where small changes can have significant effects, and understanding the interconnectedness of various factors influencing international relations.
- Integration of Virtual Platforms: The success of virtual diplomacy simulations during the pandemic has highlighted the potential of online platforms to facilitate diplomatic engagement. Diplomatic institutions may further develop and integrate virtual platforms into their standard practices, allowing for more accessible and flexible participation in diplomatic processes.
- Data-Driven Decision-Making: With the vast troves of historical data available, diplomatic institutions will increasingly utilize data-driven approaches to inform their strategies. By analyzing patterns in diplomatic successes and breakdowns, institutions can identify best practices and develop more effective approaches to negotiations and conflict resolution.
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The influence of science and technology on global diplomacy
One of the most notable ways technology has impacted diplomacy is through the use of computer simulations and modelling. These simulations, such as Model Diplomacy, offer a risk-free environment for diplomats and policymakers to experiment with different strategies and approaches to complex global issues. For example, Model Diplomacy presents both historical and hypothetical scenarios, allowing users to negotiate, cooperate, and resolve conflicts without real-world consequences. This enables diplomats to sharpen their skills and prepare for a variety of situations.
The rise of the internet and digital communication tools has also transformed the way diplomats interact and negotiate. With email, video conferencing, and instant messaging, diplomats can now connect and collaborate more easily and efficiently, regardless of their physical location. This has led to an increase in multilateral cooperation and the emergence of new diplomatic formats, such as virtual summits and online negotiations.
Additionally, the influence of science and technology on diplomacy is evident in the way data and analytics are used. "Big data" analytics, for instance, allows for the analysis of vast amounts of information from multilateral institutions, helping to identify patterns of success and failure in diplomacy. This, in turn, can inform strategies and policies, potentially leading to more effective outcomes.
However, the integration of science and technology into diplomacy also introduces new challenges and risks. For example, the use of social media and digital propaganda can influence public opinion and shape diplomatic relations. Additionally, as AI continues to advance, ethical considerations arise, such as the potential for unintended consequences or the need to address language barriers between countries.
In conclusion, science and technology have had a significant influence on global diplomacy, offering new tools and methods for negotiation, conflict resolution, and policy-making. As technology continues to advance, diplomats must adapt and innovate to effectively navigate the complex and ever-changing landscape of international relations.
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Frequently asked questions
Computer simulation in diplomacy refers to the use of technology to create virtual scenarios and situations that can be used to practice and experiment with diplomatic strategies and techniques. This can involve gaming elements, such as the use of AI opponents, or be based on historical and hypothetical scenarios.
Computer simulations have been used to create interactive learning environments for students interested in diplomacy. For example, Model Diplomacy is a free simulation that presents both historical and hypothetical scenarios based on real issues, with content provided by the Council on Foreign Relations. Students can take on different roles and interact with each other to negotiate and resolve conflicts.
Computer simulations have influenced the practice of diplomacy by providing new tools and methods for analysis and decision-making. For example, computational diplomacy combines diplomacy with "big data" analytics to identify patterns of success and failure in diplomatic endeavours. This allows policymakers to experiment with alternative approaches to resolving diplomatic stalemates. Additionally, the advent of social media and 24/7 news has increased the amount of information available to diplomats and expanded the avenues for communication and engagement.
