Jonah Patel
Pennsylvania is a key swing state in US elections, and in 2024, both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump invested significant resources in their campaigns there. Pennsylvania carries the most electoral votes among the swing states, and experts believe that winning this state increases the chances of winning the election. However, it is possible for either candidate to win without Pennsylvania, and Harris's most plausible path to victory without the state involves winning Wisconsin and Michigan, along with at least two other swing states.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Possibility of Kamala Harris winning without Pennsylvania | Yes, but unlikely |
| Most plausible path to victory without Pennsylvania | Win Wisconsin and Michigan, along with at least two of the other swing states where Trump has an edge: North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada |
| Number of electoral votes for Pennsylvania | 19 |
| Pennsylvania's rank in terms of electoral votes | 5th |
| Pennsylvania's nickname | Keystone State |
| Pennsylvania's status in the 2024 election | One of seven battleground states |
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What You'll Learn
- Kamala Harris's path to the presidency hinged on recapturing the blue wall states
- Pennsylvania is a swing state with the most electoral votes
- Harris can win without Pennsylvania by securing Wisconsin and Michigan
- Harris can win by sweeping the Sun Belt states
- Harris can win by appealing to moderate voters and some Republicans
Kamala Harris's path to the presidency hinged on recapturing the blue wall states
The "blue wall" is a term used in US political culture to refer to the states that reliably voted for the Democratic Party in the six consecutive presidential elections from 1992 to 2012. These states include California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, Washington, Massachusetts, and Wisconsin, among others. The blue wall states are crucial for Kamala Harris's path to the presidency.
In the 2016 presidential election, the blue wall was challenged by Republican nominee Donald Trump, who won in the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which had been considered Democratic strongholds. This victory paved his path to the White House. In 2020, these three states returned to the Democratic column, voting for Joe Biden. However, in the 2024 election, Pennsylvania again voted for Trump, along with the other blue wall states of Michigan and Wisconsin.
Kamala Harris's campaign strategy focused on winning over moderate voters and some Republicans in Pennsylvania, a key swing state. Despite this, Trump's popularity in the state, driven by economic concerns and his ability to connect with voters, resulted in a victory for him. This win in Pennsylvania, along with other battleground states, secured his reelection as president.
Without Pennsylvania, Harris's path to victory becomes significantly more challenging. However, it is not impossible. To win without Pennsylvania, Harris would need to recapture other blue wall states, such as Michigan and Wisconsin, and potentially gain support in other swing states. Her campaign's extensive efforts to reach Republican voters and appeal to centrist positions could play a crucial role in this strategy.
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Pennsylvania is a swing state with the most electoral votes
Pennsylvania is a highly coveted swing state in US presidential elections. In 2024, it held the largest number of electoral votes among all major swing states, with 19. This number is proportional to the state's population and is decided every 10 years after a census. The state's winner was estimated to have a 90% chance of winning the presidency, making Pennsylvania a crucial state for candidates to win.
Pennsylvania has been a near dead-even balance in recent presidential elections. In 2020, Joe Biden won the state by a slim margin of about 80,000 votes, while Donald Trump carried it by 40,000 votes in his 2016 victory. The state is part of the once-reliable Democratic "blue wall" that includes Michigan and Wisconsin. However, in 2024, Pennsylvania flipped back to Trump, who won with 50.4% of the vote, defeating Kamala Harris by a margin of 1.7%. This was a significant victory for Trump, as Pennsylvania has voted for the overall victor in 49 out of 60 elections (81.7% of the time).
For Kamala Harris, Pennsylvania was a crucial state to win in her path to the presidency. Most political experts agree that her likeliest path to victory in the Electoral College was through Pennsylvania. However, there was still a way for her to win without the state, as there had been for previous candidates. In the lead-up to the 2024 election, both the Harris and Trump campaigns poured enormous resources into Pennsylvania, spending more on television advertising there than in any other swing state. They recognized the importance of the state's electoral votes and worked to win over moderate voters and some Republicans. Despite these efforts, Trump ultimately won Pennsylvania, contributing to his overall victory in the election.
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Harris can win without Pennsylvania by securing Wisconsin and Michigan
While Pennsylvania is considered a crucial swing state, with most experts predicting that the winner in Pennsylvania will likely take the 2024 election, Kamala Harris can still win without it. The key for Harris is to secure Wisconsin and Michigan, where she is currently polling ahead, along with at least two other swing states. This could be a combination of North Carolina and Georgia, or Arizona, Nevada, and either North Carolina or Georgia. If Harris can secure both North Carolina and Georgia, two states that typically pick the same candidate, she can win with just Michigan.
Harris's path to the presidency relies on recapturing the "blue wall" states, which were crucial in previous Democratic victories. These include Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. However, if Harris loses the "blue wall" entirely, she could still win by sweeping the Sun Belt states, although this is considered less likely, as she has been polling slightly worse in the Sun Belt than in the "blue wall" states.
While Pennsylvania is a highly contested swing state, with both Harris and Trump investing significant resources and making frequent visits, the margins between the two candidates are razor-thin. A small polling error could lead to a winning electoral map that doesn't include Pennsylvania. This scenario underscores the importance of Harris securing Wisconsin and Michigan, along with other swing states, to compensate for a potential loss in Pennsylvania.
It's worth noting that Trump also has a path to victory without Pennsylvania. His strategy involves winning Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina, where he is currently ahead in the polls, along with at least one of the Great Lakes battleground states: Michigan and Wisconsin.
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Harris can win by sweeping the Sun Belt states
While Pennsylvania has been considered a crucial swing state in the 2024 election, there is a path for Kamala Harris to win without it. Most political experts agree that Vice President Harris' likeliest path to victory lies through Pennsylvania, but there is an alternative strategy. Harris can win by sweeping the Sun Belt states.
The Sun Belt is a term first used by political analyst Kevin Phillips in his 1969 book, *The Emerging Republican Majority*. It refers to the southern third of the United States, a region comprising 15 states and extending from Virginia and Florida in the southeast to Nevada in the southwest, and also including southern California. The Sun Belt states are Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico, South Carolina, Texas, roughly two-thirds of California, and the southern parts of Arkansas, North Carolina, Nevada, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Utah.
The Sun Belt has been a significant driver of economic growth in the US. Factors such as a warmer climate, the migration of workers from Mexico, and a booming agriculture industry have contributed to its economic development. Additionally, the oil industry has propelled states like Texas and Louisiana forward, while tourism has grown in Florida and Southern California. High-tech and new economy industries have also been major growth drivers in California, Florida, Texas, and other parts of the Sun Belt.
Given the Sun Belt's economic and political prominence, sweeping these states could provide Harris with an alternative path to victory. However, it is important to note that the Sun Belt has historically been more conservative than other regions, which could pose a challenge for Harris. Nonetheless, increasing racial diversity and political realignment in some Sun Belt states have made them more competitive, potentially creating opportunities for Harris to gain support.
To win by sweeping the Sun Belt states, Harris would need to focus on appealing to moderate voters and some Republicans in these states. This could involve highlighting her centrist positions and reaching out to Republican voters, as her campaign has already been attempting in Pennsylvania. By pursuing this strategy and capitalizing on the economic and demographic changes in the Sun Belt, Harris could potentially secure enough electoral votes to win without relying on Pennsylvania.
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Harris can win by appealing to moderate voters and some Republicans
While Pennsylvania is considered a crucial swing state in the US election, Vice President Kamala Harris can still win without it by appealing to moderate voters and some Republicans.
Harris's campaign has made an extensive effort to reach Republican voters, including hosting a "Republicans for Harris" event in October, where she highlighted her commitment to the rule of law and the Constitution. She has framed herself as a centrist, appealing to moderate voters who may be turned off by more progressive candidates. This strategy could help her win over Republicans who are dissatisfied with former President Donald Trump and his divergence from traditional Republican values.
In her campaign, Harris has emphasized her experience working across party lines, demonstrating a commitment to a healthy two-party system and a willingness to engage in policy debates and collaboration. This message could resonate with moderate voters who value bipartisanship and pragmatism in governance.
Additionally, Harris can highlight issues that appeal to moderate voters, such as the economy, healthcare, and education. By presenting herself as a pragmatic leader focused on these issues, she can attract voters who prioritize stability and effective governance over ideological purity.
Furthermore, Harris can build on the support she has received from some prominent Republicans, such as former US Rep. Adam Kinzinger, who introduced her at the "Republicans for Harris" event and criticized Trump for abandoning traditional Republican values. By showcasing endorsements from Republicans who prioritize democracy and the rule of law, Harris can make inroads with moderate and independent-minded Republican voters.
While Pennsylvania is important, Harris can still win the election without it by effectively appealing to moderate voters and a portion of Republicans who are open to her message of centrism, bipartisanship, and pragmatic governance.
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Frequently asked questions
Yes, it is possible for Kamala Harris to win without Pennsylvania. However, most political experts agree that her likeliest path to victory lies through Pennsylvania.
Kamala Harris can win without Pennsylvania by winning Wisconsin and Michigan, where she was polling ahead, and at least two other swing states where Trump has an edge.
Kamala Harris can win by adding North Carolina and Georgia, or with Arizona, Nevada, and either North Carolina or Georgia.
Statistician Nate Silver estimates that Harris has an almost 91% chance of winning if she secures Pennsylvania. Without Pennsylvania, there is no clear path to victory for Harris, and her chances are significantly reduced.
Pennsylvania is one of the most valuable swing states and carries the most electoral votes. It is also part of the "`blue wall'" that has been crucial in previous Democratic victories.
